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NRL 2022 Radar: Canberra must find X-factor in forwards to make finals return

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Expert
15th December, 2021
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He caused Canberra plenty of drama at the negotiating table but the Raiders miss English forward John Bateman’s even greater unpredictability on the playing field.

Last season they didn’t seem to have that X-factor player who could produce a line break at the drop of the hat or muscle up to opposing packs like Bateman did in the Raiders’ golden run to the 2019 grand final.

Too much of the attacking responsibility fell on the shoulder of star five-eighth Jack Wighton, who was unable to back up the form which took him all the way to the Dally M Medal in 2020, a year after he was a deserving but rare recipient of man of the match honours in the losing side of the premiership decider against the Roosters.

Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has alleviated the pressure on Wighton with the acquisition of Titans playmaker Jamal Fogarty to replace George Williams at halfback but for Canberra to get back into serious premiership contention, he needs to fire up the Bat(eman) signal and find a forward who can give them that something special when a game is stuck in arm wrestle mode.

Veteran prop Josh Papali’i can be the enforcer but he doesn’t seem to have the same impact as he did at his peak a couple of years ago – he’s still only 29 so he could potentially rediscover his elite attacking prowess.

Last season his tackle breaks, post-contact and overall running metres were the lowest they’ve been in the last five years when he has established himself as one of the premier middle forwards in the NRL.

And it can’t just be Papali’i providing spark in the forwards.

Second-rower Hudson Young was on a rapid upward trajectory, lock Joseph Tapine is more than capable of consistently making the tackle busts his team desperately needs, along with Corey Harawira-Naera.

Corey Horsburgh is another forward whose career hit a plateau last season when he was limited to just eight games at Canberra, as well as a couple at Canterbury on loan, due to a wrist injury but he’s on Queensland’s radar as a potential Origin representative of the future and he could make a big leap in 2022.

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John Bateman NRL Raiders.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Stuart has tended to roll with one of the larger packs in the NRL which may have contributed to the team’s tendency to cough up leads in the closing stages of games.

If he goes for more mobility in 2022, someone like Bulldogs recruit Adam Elliott could be a handy addition as a workaholic lock or perhaps shifting Josh Hodgson to the No.13 jersey in his last year before joining Parramatta with Tom Starling as the permanent hooker could do the trick.

Continuing the theme of recapturing the 2019 vibe, the Raiders have announced they are bringing former NSW winger Nick Cotric back from an underwhelming season at Canterbury.

The Raiders have clearly played the Bulldogs off the break on this one – they refused to pay an inflated price for Cotric because they thought he was a top-line winger but lacked the passing skills to play centre.

Canterbury signed him on a lucrative three-year deal and abandoned the centre experiment mid-season and will now be paying part of Cotric’s contract for the next couple of years while he’s back Canberra, who’ve locked him away until the end of 2024.

Nick Cotric dives over

Nick Cotric. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

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With winger Bailey Simonsson switching to Parramatta recently and centre Curtis Scott looking to follow suit if he can be registered by the NRL after a nightclub assault last season, the Raiders have a few question marks in the outside backs.

If Cotric and veteran Jordan Rapana fill the wing spots, Seb Kris is likely to be one centre and the whole of Canberra, the ACT and anyone with a fondness for green milk will be hoping captain Jarrod Croker can overcome his knee problems.

The ongoing issue has clearly affected his mobility and effectiveness over the past year and underwent stem-cell surgery in a bid to salvage his career.

With three years left on his deal, the 31-year-old goal-kicker, who is nine games shy of 300 games at the club, is hoping his rehab plan works over the off-season so that he can again become a potent scoring threat on Canberra’s left edge.

What’s new

The halfback position, which became such an issue when George Williams made his controversial mid-season exit, has been filled by former Titans skipper Jamal Fogarty. Seasoned forward Adam Elliott has settled in after his stint at the Bulldogs was soured after a series of alcohol-related off-field indiscretions while Cowboys prop Peter Hola will also boost Canberra’s already considerable depth up front.

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Star on the rise

Hudson Young earned an unwanted reputation when he first came into prominence a few years ago for a couple of lengthy bans for recklessly raking his fingers near the eyes of opponents. He’s not only learned the lesson by avoiding such grubby acts since, he’s become one of Canberra’s better-performed forwards and if his rapid progress continues, he could even find himself in the NSW Origin squad if injuries rule out some incumbents.

Who’s under the pump

Jarrod Croker’s career hinges on the success of the knee surgery he underwent in October. His form, particularly in defence, has been down compared to his previous decade-plus in the Canberra centres. The NRL community will be hoping one of the stalwarts of the game can end his career on his own terms, not via a medical retirement or after losing his spot in the team.

Best-case scenario

As it stands, the Raiders would need a helluva lot to go right for them to break back into the top four. If Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad can rediscover his best after injury ruined last season for the fullback, then that would go a long way towards Canberra being able to score enough points to compete with the top teams.

Worst-case scenario
They look likely candidates for the lower half of the top eight but as we saw last season, they can blow leads and sometimes struggle to get out of second gear so the Green Machine may miss the finals again for a second straight year despite having a strong roster in pretty much every position on the field.

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Round 1 predicted team

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Xavier Savage
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Corey Horsburgh
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joseph Tapine
14. Tom Starling
15. Corey Harawira-Naera
16. Emre Guler
17. Ryan Sutton

Others: Jordan Rapana (suspended), Adam Elliott, Matt Frawley, Albert Hopoate, Peter Hola, Trey Mooney, Harry Rushton, Xavier Savage, Brad Schneider, Harley Smith-Shields, Matthew Timoko, Semi Valemei, Sam Williams

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