Opinion
Thirteen years after his only previous title at Melbourne Park, tennis immortality awaits Rafael Nadal when he comes up against Daniil Medvedev in Sunday night’s Australian Open men’s championship match.
It is hard to believe that it has been that long since the Spaniard defeated Roger Federer in five sets to cement himself as a clear-cut world number one at the time, after dethroning the Swiss maestro from the top halfway through the previous year (2008).
Since then, the ‘King of Clay’ has suffered his fair share of bad luck Down Under, losing four finals (two of them in five sets), twice being forced to retire mid-match due to injuries (in 2010 and 2018) and also sitting out the 2013 tournament due to a stomach bug.
However, this year shapes as Nadal’s best chance to finally bury those demons, and the Spaniard will start as the prohibitive favourite to get his hands back on the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup for the first time since 2009.
The 35-year-old’s preparations for the tournament couldn’t have been more impressive, claiming the Melbourne Summer Set in the first week of the new season to win his first title anywhere in Australia since that aforementioned Australian Open win 13 years ago.
This is despite the fact that the Spaniard tested positive to COVID-19 just before Christmas, which threw his Australian Open preparations into chaos.
Though he lost the third set of his semi-final match against Matteo Berrettini, he was nonetheless impressive as he qualified for his sixth final at Melbourne Park.
At stake is not only a record-breaking 21st major men’s singles title, which would see him break a tie he holds with career rivals Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, but also the chance to join the latter in winning each of the four majors at least twice.
(Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)
The man tasked with stopping Nadal from achieving tennis immortality is Russian second seed Daniil Medvedev, who assumed favouritism for the title after Djokovic was deported from the country on the eve of the tournament.
While the Russian has justified his status as the favourite for the title, it hasn’t been all smooth sailing, dropping sets against Nick Kyrigos and Maxime Cressy in earlier rounds before falling behind two sets to love against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-finals.
The 25-year-old also faced a match point in the fourth set, but fought it off before ultimately prevailing in five sets to line up a semi-final showdown against Stefanos Tsitsipas for the second consecutive year.
As was the case last year, Medvedev emerged victorious, however this time around he needed four sets to prevail after briefly losing his cool towards the end of the second set when it was alleged that the Greek player was receiving coaching from his father.
A break to love in the ninth game of the third set saw him take it 6-4 before he ran away with it in the fourth, winning the final five games without reply to advance to his second consecutive Australian Open final.
There, he will face Nadal, where he will be hoping to repeat a dose of history and deny the Spaniard a record-breaking 21st major men’s singles title, just as he did when he stopped Novak Djokovic from achieving just that in the final of the US Open last year.
All the interest had centred around whether the ‘Djoker’ could achieve the first calendar grand slam since Rod Laver in 1969, however Medvedev won in straight sets to become the first Russian man since Marat Safin in 2005 to win a major title.
(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Coincidentally, his appearance in Sunday night’s Australian Open men’s final will come exactly 17 years to the day since Safin won the second of his two major titles, when he broke local hearts and defeated Lleyton Hewitt in four sets.
His showdown against Nadal will be the second time he has faced Nadal in a major final, after the Spaniard won a five-set encounter at Flushing Meadows in 2019.
A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then, and by the end of Sunday night he will have played two major finals at each of the Australian and US Opens, one each against Djokovic and Nadal.
So, can he make it consecutive major titles across two years, or will Rafael Nadal write his name into tennis immortality with a record-breaking 21st major men’s singles title and join Djokovic in winning each of the four majors twice?
Now that you’ve got the information above, it’s time now to crunch the all-important numbers below.
[6] Rafael Nadal (ESP) versus [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS)
Sunday, January 30, 7:30pm (AEST)
Rod Laver Arena
Head to head
All matches: Nadal 3-1
At the majors: Nadal 1-0
In finals: Nadal 1-0
Last meeting: Medvedev won 3-6, 7-5 (7-4), 6-3, semi-finals, 2020 ATP Finals
Last meeting at a major: Nadal won 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4, 2019 US Open final
Rafael Nadal’s road to the final
Round 1: defeated Marcos Giron (USA) 6-1, 6-4, 6-2
Round 2: defeated Yannick Hanfmann (GER) 6-2, 6-3, 6-4
Round 3: defeated [28] Karen Khachanov (RUS) 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1
Round 4: defeated Adrian Mannarino (FRA) 7-6 (16-14), 6-2, 6-2
Quarter-final: defeated [14] Denis Shapovalov (CAN) 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-3
Semi-final: defeated [7] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
Daniil Medvedev’s road to the final
Round 1: defeated Henri Laaksonen (SUI) 6-1, 6-4, 7-6 (7-3)
Round 2: defeated Nick Kyrgios (AUS) 7-6 (7-1), 6-4, 4-6, 6-2
Round 3: defeated Botic van de Zandschulp (NED) 6-4 6-4, 6-2
Round 4: defeated Maxime Cressy (USA) 6-2, 7-6 (7-4), 6-7 (4-7), 7-5
Quarter-final: defeated [9] Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) 6-7 (4-7), 3-6, 7-6 (7-2), 7-5, 6-4
Semi-final: defeated [4] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 7-6 (7-5), 4-6, 6-4, 6-1
The stats that matter
• This is Rafael Nadal’s 29th major final, just two short of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer’s tally of 31 major finals, and his sixth at the Australian Open.
• This is Daniil Medvedev’s fourth major final, and second consecutive at the Australian Open. This is also his second major final against Rafael Nadal, following his loss to the Spaniard in the final of the 2019 US Open.
• Medvedev is the fifth different man, after Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem, to face Nadal in more than one major final.
• Nadal is aiming to win his 21st major singles title, which would be a record for a male player. Of all active players across both men’s and women’s, only Serena Williams (23) has won more.
• A win would also see the Spaniard break a long drought at the Australian Open, 13 years having passed since he won the title here.
• If Medvedev wins, he’ll become the first Russian man to win the Australian Open since Marat Safin, exactly 17 years ago. He is aiming for his second major title, to go with the US Open title he won last year.
• Medvedev is aiming to become the first man to win the US and Australian Open titles in consecutive fashion since Novak Djokovic in 2018-19. He is also aiming to become the first man to win his first two major titles in consecutive fashion.
• A win for the Russian would also see him assume the world number one ranking in the week starting February 21. This is the date when Djokovic’s points will come off as a result of his inability to defend his title.
• This is the 12th consecutive all-European major men’s singles final, and it will be the 48th straight major to be won by a European man, dating back to the 2010 Australian Open.
Prediction
Rafael Nadal in four sets.
All of Australia will be watching with excitement and anticipation as Ash Barty bids to become our first homegrown champion since Chris O’Neil in 1978, and the first Australian to win at Melbourne Park since the tournament was shifted from Kooyong in 1988.
The Queenslander will start a prohibitive favourite to add to the French Open and Wimbledon titles she won in 2019 and last year respectively, when she comes up against Danielle Collins in the women’s championship match tonight.
She has not dropped a set in any of her six lead-up matches and winning the final in straight sets would mark the first flawless performance by a woman at Melbourne Park since Serena Williams in 2017. Further, she’d become the first top seed to win here since Williams in 2015.
Following the women’s final, an Australian pairing is guaranteed to win the men’s doubles, when the Special Ks (Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios) come up against Matt Ebden and Max Purcell in the championship match of that component.
Purcell has previously reached the men’s doubles final here in 2020, partnering with Luke Saville as they lost to the American/British pairing of Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury.
As for Ebden, it is his first Australian Open men’s doubles final, and third doubles final overall after previously featuring in two mixed doubles finals for one win (with Jarmila Wolfe in 2013) and one loss (with Samantha Stosur last year).
This is the first major final in any discipline for either Thanasi Kokkinakis or Nick Kyrgios, both of whom faced off in the 2013 boys’ singles final.
Thus, if Barty wins as expected, then it will be a massive night for Australian tennis, for all the right reasons.
Rod Laver Arena
Night session – from 7:30pm AEDT
Women’s singles final – [1] Ashleigh Barty versus [27] Danielle Collins (USA)
Men’s doubles final – Thanasi Kokkinakis (AUS)/Nick Kyrgios (AUS) versus Matt Ebden (AUS)/Max Purcell (AUS)
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