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With just over a month remaining until kick-off in the 2022 NRL Premiership season, now is the time to scour the odds and find value that will quickly evaporate, as soon as the team(s) in question show some form over the opening rounds.
When the Panthers and Sea Eagles launch the season on March 10, much ‘smart money’ will already have been invested by people convinced that the horse they have backed will show the improvement required to take out the premiership some eight months later.
No doubt a significant percentage of that coin will be headed in the direction of reigning premiers Penrith, with their youthful and still developing squad a certain chance for a rare repeat in the modern era of NRL play.
At $5.50 with Play Up, the return is appealing at this time of the year, yet should the Panthers get on another run of home-and-away success as they have done in previous years, that figure will shrink briskly.
Alongside the Panthers at the same price is Melbourne; the perennial contenders almost certain to once again be in the photo when the whips are cracking in 2022.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
As is always the case with the Storm, a few have come and a few have gone, yet they will undoubtedly be presented as yet another competitive version of themselves with names like Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, Kenny Bromwich and Brandon Smith putting the Mexicans in the frame for yet another premiership.
The Roosters appear well undervalued at $6.50 in terms of a return on investment. Boyd Cordner, the Morris twins and Jake Friend have departed, with Connor Watson the most significant new recruit. It might take another year or two for the Chooks to rebuild yet the bookies are apparently keeping them very, very safe.
The Sea Eagles and Bunnies are on the next two lines of betting, with Adam Reynolds’ departure to Brisbane and limited recruitment the biggest concerns for Souths, who were paying $7.50 in premiership betting at the time of writing.
Manly seem reliant on the squad that finished 12 points shy of both Melbourne and Penrith last season and hopeful of producing the same result without any significant additions to it. At $8.50, not too many will see the Sea Eagles as good value with those factors considered.
Parramatta is on the next line of betting at $13 and any money sent in that direction is simply destined never to be returned, with a few ins and outs not masking the fact that without a better general, Parramatta are simply not good enough to threaten the top teams on the big occasions.
A similar line of thinking could be applied to the Raiders. At $19.00 in the premiership market, the players they have picked up from the Bulldogs and elsewhere do not appear to be the likely elixirs to their ills and finals football again looks a 50-50 possibility for them in 2022.
The Sharks, Gold Coast and Newcastle all sit at $21 in premiership betting and being held safe in term of a potential top-eight finish.
Cronulla has Dale Finucane and Cameron McInnes to add to their ninth-placed squad of 2021, Gold Coast will be relying on the youthful flock that took them to a rare and only fourth ever appearance in the finals last season and Newcastle fans will be hoping that the losses of Mitchell Pearce and Connor Watson will not mean a return to the cellar after a few seasons of hope and growth.
Frankly, the Sharks look the best placed of the three, Gold Coast devoid of the touch of class required to improve what is now a committed and professional football team under Justin Holbrook and with Dane Gagai the best new addition in the Hunter, one wonders whether Newcastle’s fortunes will improve at all after the significant losses in the spine.
The most significant X-factor in the premiership race is the Bulldogs, lurking at $26, which despite the host of new signings, still seems a little under the realistic value for a team that will probably play its best football in a year or two’s time.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
At $29.00, the Brisbane Broncos have been allocated ‘Reynolds odds’, with the game’s most consistent game ‘icer’ seemingly making the competitions’ 14th-placed team in 2021 instantly better. New recruits Kurt Capewell and Ryan James might well be able to help Reynolds out, yet whether the Broncos can take step or leaps this season remains to be seen.
Peta Hiku and Chad Townsend are the biggest additions in North Queensland, with a 15th-placed finish in 2021 balancing out their arrival and keeping the Cows at a juicy $34. A stack of talent has departed and much youth re-signed. Thus, the Cowboys remain a ‘watch this space’ proposition.
The Dragons and Warriors are both attracting odds of $41 in the early premiership market, with neither doing much in terms of recruitment that suggests any significant improved on 2021 form.
One must ask why the Dragons would be bringing in players like Aaron Woods and Moses Mbye alongside some of the better recruitment decisions of George Burgess, Tautau Mogo and Moses Suli.
The big question in New Zealand will be whether Shaun Johnson and Ashley Taylor can play together and somehow improve each other, in what will be one of the most interesting combinations in the competition.
On the bottom rung of betting is Wests Tigers, with $51 being prohibitive to any punter with logic or memory. With Tyrone Peachey the most NRL experienced of the recruits and most of the others very much questionable, the Tigers are likely to finish at or near the bottom of the ladder in 2020.
As unpredictable as many people would like to believe a salary-capped league can be, the 2022 NRL Premiership does not appear to be headed down such a path, with the haves and the have-nots likely to be well separated once again.
The idea of teams like the Raiders, Bulldogs, Sharks, Knights or Gold Coast upsetting the apple cart might be appealing, yet it does appear that the top six in betting odds will once again be pretty close to the mark when it comes to the fight for the 2022 title.