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Opinion
2021 could only be described as bitterly disappointing for Carlton, a year when much was expected but much less was delivered.
After climbing from 16th in 2019 to 11th in 2020 after boarding the “Teague train”, finals beckoned for the Blues, but once again they were unable to deliver. And they failed to such an extent that David Teague was shown the door in another messy coaching exit.
It’s been nine years since Carlton played finals, 22 years since they finished in the top four, and longer still since they’ve had a realistic shot at winning the flag.
Eight coaches have had a crack this century, and since the David Parkin/Wayne Brittain days we’ve seen messiah types like Denis Pagan and Mick Malthouse, a favourite son in Brett Ratten, the Alastair Clarkson disciple in Brendon Bolton, and giving people power a shot with Teague.
The Blues won eight games last season and finished 13th on the ladder, yet were the second-worst defence in the competition, with no resilience behind the ball.
To give Carlton an out though, they only had five players play 20 or more games in 2021, by far the fewest in the league on that score. The teams at the top of the ladder tend to have 15-18 players in that bracket; even allowing for those clubs playing some finals, it’s a big difference.
What’s new
The Blues were one of the more active participants in the trade period, trading out pick six to Fremantle for Adam Cerra, and also selectively acquiring hardy defensive midfielder George Hewett from Sydney and tall defender Lewis Young from the Bulldogs.
All three feel like canny pieces of list management, adding depth and quality to a list that is now starting to develop both aspects quite nicely.
Michael Voss is the new gaffer, nine years after he was dismissed from Brisbane.
There is something to love about the way Voss has gone about it, acknowledging his inexperience, copping his medicine and going back to the assistant coaching ranks before coming back for another shot. It’s great to see the likes of him and Brett Ratten get a second chance.
The difference between Voss at Carlton as opposed to Sam Mitchell at Hawthorn, Craig McRae at Collingwood, and even Matthew Nicks at Adelaide or David Noble at North Melbourne, is that the Blues should be challenging for finals. The other new or new-ish coaches were either coming in on the way down or at the bottom.
Voss has got the clay, but can he shape it?
Star on the rise
Can we say Charlie Curnow, even though he’s just turned 25? It will be sad for all footy fans if he can’t show us what his best football looks like in his prime years due to recurring injuries. He looked like being the complete package at various stages in 2018-19.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Let’s not forget Sam Walsh is still only 21 as well. It whets the appetite to think that he could, and probably will, get even better.
What a third season he had, polling 30 Brownlow votes. 30! Chris Judd won a Brownlow in his third year, polling exactly the same amount. That’s the level we’re talking about here, and it is no empty comparison.
No one runs harder than Walsh, and he does it both ways. He can win his own footy with hunger, be the linkman in the right spot thanks to his footy brain, dazzle with his footwork in traffic, put the ball where he likes with hand or foot, take a courageous grab and kick a match-winning goal.
Already, Walsh in probably the surest player in the league. He always seems to have an option, whether under peripheral or immediate pressure. He doesn’t fumble. He’s always there as a release for teammates under the pump, and is the very definition of poise.
Anyway, we could talk about Sam Walsh all day. Just make sure you watch him go to work this season, and savour it when you do.
Who’s under the pump
Adam Cerra played 76 games in four seasons at Fremantle, and at 22 years of age has come back under big headlines, with big expectations and no doubt a big pay-packet too. The pressure is on him to deliver.
But, Cerra is well placed to perform. He’s a genuine all-rounder as a midfielder, as comfortable at the coal-face winning clearances as he is delivering the ball on the outside with poise and precision, often after doing some work in traffic.
If anything, he is more of a deliverer, but with Sam Walsh doing it all, Patrick Cripps a renowned clearance beast, Ed Curnow still playing good footy, and some handy midfield depth in the clinches behind them, Cerra will have every chance to be used to advantage in whichever way the coaches want.
It’s doubtful if he’ll become truly elite, but should be very, very good for a long time.
Best-case scenario
Let’s put it out there – top four is on the agenda for Carlton this year.
Port, Brisbane and Geelong could easily fall away having been knocking on the door for years with no success. Sydney are young enough that we can’t be certain they’re capable of backing up their 15 wins from 2021. And there are plenty of questions marks around the sides that finished in the middle third of the ladder ahead of the Blues last year. Some will rise, and some will fall (hello, West Coast).
A new coach can often see a spike in ladder position, and the Carlton-Voss combination is one that fits the profile nicely. If their weapons through the middle and up forward, including a Coleman Medalist in Harry McKay, fire and work together on both sides of the footy, it can give the weakest area of the ground, the defence, a chop out.
Will Harry McKay have a big year? (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Worst-case scenario
Things don’t quite gel for Voss in his return to senior coaching. Patrick Cripps slows down even further, players like Kennedy and Silvagni don’t keep their strong finish to 2021 going and too much falls to Walsh and Cerra in the middle.
Injuries continue to eat away at Curnow, Jack Martin, Mitch McGovern, and once again their backmen are too attacking to prevent scores against them and the midfield can’t put enough pressure on the opposition.
For Carlton, anything less than being right in the frame for a top-eight berth all the way up to and including Round 23, will be a failure.
B: Lachie Plowman Jacob Weitering Nic Newman
HB: Sam Docherty Mitch McGovern Adam Saad
C: Ed Curnow Patrick Cripps Matthew Kennedy
HF: Jack Martin Charlie Curnow Paddy Dow
F: Jack Silvagni Harry McKay Zac Fisher
Foll: Marc Pittonet Sam Walsh Adam Cerra
Int: Tom De Koning Zac Williams George Hewett Liam Stocker