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AFL 2022 Radar: 'If they don't win a final, it will be a wasted year'

22nd February, 2022
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22nd February, 2022
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Essendon were the surprise packet of the second half of last season – coming from the depths of the ladder to storm all the way into finals. Can they maintain the rage?

We have cited several examples during this AFL Radar 2022 series about new coaches taking half a season or so to get their team performing, and the Bombers under Ben Rutten were another such example.

A 2-6 start to the season had them behind the eight-ball as far as finals went, and while they lost two of their games by big margins to contenders, they lost a couple of others by one and two points only. A 75-point belting of St Kilda showed they had some quality about them.

From there, they went a more than respectable 9-5 in the home and away rounds, winning their last three matches to secure eighth spot and an elimination final berth. Unfortunately they ran into a Bulldogs outfit that had the umpires on their side down in Tasmania, a series of goals from 50-50 free kicks snuffing out any hope of the Dons progressing any further.

While Rutten was the coach in title for the first time in 2021, he had been a senior assistant and coach-elect under John Worsfold in 2019-20. This is well and truly his team now.

What’s new?
Like many clubs, Essendon weren’t active in the trade period. They were happy to go to the draft with pick 13, which they turned into something of a draft slider in inside mid Ben Hobbs.

Hobbs has been named in the Bombers squad for their practise match this weekend against the Western Bulldogs, so many eyes will be on him to see what sort of impression he can make.

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Jake Kelly was picked up as a delisted free agent after 110 games in six seasons with the Crows. Not many will have posters of him on their walls, but at 190cm he can play on forwards of all sizes deep in defences, and is the type of role player every successful team needs.

Star on the rise
Andrew McGrath feels like he’s been around forever, so it’s easy to forget the No.1 pick from the 2016 draft is still only 23 despite being on the verge of 100 games.

While being a rock solid AFL player from day dot, the question has been whether McGrath can elevate himself into the elite of the competition. He’s shown that he might at various stages of the last two seasons, and if he can truly make that jump, the Bombers go from a final eight contender to a top-four team.

Andrew McGrath

Andrew McGrath (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Nik Cox, Archie Perkins and Harry Jones were all Rising Star nominees in their debut season last year, and have Dons fans drooling at their future prospects. It’s too early to tell who will be the best of them given they are all vastly different players at this stage of their careers, but they’ll continue to get games into them and excite us all along the way.

Who’s under the pump
Dylan Shiel came to Essendon on a hefty contract heading into the 2019 season, yet three years later there are questions over exactly where he sits in the pecking order.

He moves through traffic like a silky left-footer but often doesn’t finish like we come to expect from that type of player. He can often turn the ball over under no pressure, after he’s done the hard work of breaking free from congestion.

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Shiel started last year slowly, but got injured in Round 2 and missed four months. By the time he came back, Darcy Parish had emerged as a premier midfielder of the competition in his place and Jake Stringer was winning centre clearances for fun. Shiel looked like a square peg in a round hole.

Let’s see what he produces in 2022.

Best-case scenario
By making the eight and matching it with an eventual grand finalist in the first week, Essendon have set up base camp, and they should only climb up from here.

Not named in the best 22 below are players like Tom Cutler, Matt Guelfi and Alec Waterman, who all played in that elimination final. Brayden Ham played 19 games last year, and misses out.

Jye Caldwell had his season ruined by injury and is training the house down over summer – he’ll surely find his way in, but at who’s expense? Jake Kelly isn’t in there either; he will play in front of Michael Hurley, at least in the first half of the year.

The Bombers have genuine depth now, and that’s what can help propel them to a top four spot. If they can tighten up two or three goals a game in defence, and find another one or two up forward, they’ll be thereabouts.

Dylan Shiel

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Photos/Getty Images)

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Worst-case scenario
It’s hard to see Essendon dropping into the bottom six, unless decimated by injuries, so a floor of 12th should be as low as they can go.

The forward-line still looks patchy, even though they were the fourth heaviest scoring team last year. They’ve shown they can get a run-on against poor teams and/or at Marvel Stadium, but do they yet have the defensive resilience against the best sides? They still lost by seven to ten goals against the likes of Port, Brisbane and Geelong at various stages last season.

A long-running joke on social media now has been how long it’s been since Essendon won a final. The first movie in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which changed the shape of cinema for more than a decade, was still four years away from being released.

If they don’t win a final in 2022, it will be a wasted year.

Best 22
B Jordan Ridley Michael Hurley James Stewart
HB Nick Hind Jayden Laverde Dyson Heppell
C Kyle Langford Darcy Parish Dylan Shiel
HF Devon Smith Harry Jones Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
F Will Snelling Peter Wright Jake Stringer
Foll Sam Draper Andrew McGrath Zach Merrett
Int Nik Cox Archie Perkins Aaron Francis Mason Redman

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