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Opinion
You can’t keep a good club down, and the Sydney Swans have certainly been the living embodiment of this in the last two and a half decades.
Since making the grand final in 1996 under Rodney Eade, Sydney have played finals in a remarkable 21 of 26 years. It’s really quite phenomenal.
Paul Roos delivered a premiership in 2005 and John Longmire a flag in 2012.
Roos played under Eade and then took over as coach from him, while Longmire served as an assistant under Roos and they organised a smooth succession plan. In some ways, it has been one long stream of continuity.
The Swans were coming off 15th and 16th-placed finishes in 2019 and 2020 respectively, but surprised many by knocking on the door of top four for most of last season. At the end of the home-and-away rounds, they finished sixth, but on the same amount of wins (15) as the Brisbane Lions and eventual grand finalists Western Bulldogs.
Sydney found a nice balance of old and new, Luke Parker having one of his career-best seasons and Lance Franklin still firing on all cylinders, while they debuted three players in Round 1 and the likes of Justin McInerney and Oliver Florent put together great seasons.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Like all surprise packets heading into the following season, the question is now asked – was this one out of the box and they will revert to a mid-table finish, or are they the next contender and their time is now?
What’s new
Peter Ladhams is the only experienced arrival at Sydney, a dual-pronged player who is a competent ruck to support Tom Hickey as well as a handy forward that can take a mark and kick a goal, drawing a key defender away from Franklin and a Logan McDonald still learning his craft.
The flow-on effect of Ladhams will be Isaac Heeney being released to play more in the midfield.
Buddy, McDonald and Ladhams (or a resting Hickey) will be the marking targets, we know Will Hayward is an effective half-forward and medium marking target too, while Tom Papley is the most dangerous small forward in the competition.
Therefore, Heeney’s talents are less required and he can wreak havoc through the midfield. Every contender has wanted a Dustin Martin and now a Christian Petracca – Heeney is Sydney’s answer, and must be given the chance to prove it.
Star on the rise
The beauty of this Sydney list build is they’ve got plenty.
They had four Rising Star nominees in 2021, including one in each of the first three rounds. McInerney and Errol Gulden finished fourth and fifth in the Rising Star voting, with Braeden Campbell and Chad Warner being the other nominees. Logan McDonald could easily have scored a nomination himself, but will still be eligible for this year’s award.
Gulden is already one of the best kicks in the league, something that was apparent from his first possession against Brisbane in Round 1. He was a key reason why Sydney became such a dangerous kicking team.
McInerney is a smooth mover who has loads of class, and he may take up the role opened up by Jordan Dawson’s departure – someone who can run the wing both ways, providing drive out of defence and precise kicking inside 50.
McDonald looks one right out of the box as a tall forward, despite only playing seven games last year. It won’t surprise if he ends up being the pick of a strong 2020 draft crop. The Swans will be looking to get more games into him.
The No.4 pick in the 2020 draft will look to kick on this season (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Who’s under the pump
Sam Reid can no longer command a spot in Sydney’s best 22. His has been a career interrupted by plenty of injuries, but even when he has been able to play regular football he’s always been an erratic contributor.
Josh Kennedy is still a steady hand guiding the midfield group, but is no longer a first-choice centre square midfielder. Luke Parker is the leader in there, Callum Mills is coming off an outstanding season after moving into the middle, Heeney is going to play more in there, then you have the classier younger types to run the wings.
Kennedy has always been a contested and clearance beast, one who won’t easily be moved to half-back or half-forward, so he’s really going to have to continue on as he always has. He needs 21 games to reach 300.
Best-case scenario
It has to be a top-four spot on the ladder, preliminary final and let the chips fall where they may from there.
Sydney has a younger list than their top-eight rivals, with only Franklin (35), Kennedy (33), Rampe (32) and Hickey (31) on the wrong side of 30. If those four can hold their form, complemented by the group of players in their prime, and if the emerging talent can improve again, they are a contender.
The loss of Dawson is a significant one though, given how much drive he gave the Swans last year. And George Hewett has also gone to Carlton, meaning they no longer have that defensive midfielder that every group needs – the one who does all the unglamorous work so that others can shine.
Can they win the flag? Maybe. And it’s worth going for while they still have Buddy. It’s just hard to see them beating a Melbourne in finals though, given that lack of experience.
Worst-case scenario
Missing the finals is equally likely, coming off such a spike in 2021. Not all progress is linear with a young group, and they caught a few teams on the hop last season – particularly early.
Everyone know what this Sydney team is about now, and they also know they can be roughed up a little bit. They were firm favourites in the elimination final against GWS last year, yet the Giants were just tougher than them, refusing to get put away even when being dominated. It’s not the first time that’s happened in a final against their crosstown rivals.
Bottom six shouldn’t be on the table for the Swans, but a finish in the tenth-12th range is still a possibility.
Best 22
B: Jake Lloyd Dane Rampe Harry Cunningham
HB: Braeden Campbell Tom McCartin Nick Blakey
C: Oliver Florent Luke Parker Justin McInerney
HF: Sam Wicks Lance Franklin Errol Gulden
F: Tom Papley Logan McDonald Will Hayward
Foll: Tom Hickey Isaac Heeney Callum Mills
Int: Peter Ladhams Josh Kennedy James Rowbottom Chad Warner