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Opinion
As we near the 2022 AFL season, just how hard is it for a team to improve dramatically and become a premiership contender?
I focus on Essendon, the team I have barracked for since I was a kid, to make my case.
While Essendon finished eighth in 2021 after winning 11 of 22 games, before a drubbing and elimination by the Western Bulldogs in the first week of the finals, since 2000 the Bombers have not improved their ladder position the following season after making the finals in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2019.
That’s not to say it doesn’t happen.
Dramatic improvement includes Richmond and Geelong winning the flags in 2017 and 2007 after finishing 13th and 10th the previous season, and Collingwood and Port Adelaide making the grand final in 2018 and 2007 after finishing 13th and 12th the previous seasons.
Melbourne and West Coast also won flags in 2021 and 2018 after finishing ninth and eighth the previous seasons.
But for the Dons to succeed in 2022, a number of factors have to fall into place.
First, do Essendon have the necessary talent?
In 2021, the Bombers were among the bottom three by game average for contested possessions, despite being ranked fourth best for restricting the opposing team’s clearance numbers, fifth for disposals per game, sixth for in inside 50s, and one of the best clubs for disposal efficiency at 75 per cent.
Yet they may not be far away from having the necessary talent, grunt and depth.
In the midfield are two 2021 All Australian players, with Darcy Parish top ten for total contested possessions and fourth in clearances, while Zach Merrett was ranked fourth in terms of effective disposals and sixth in total disposals.
Darcy Parish (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
The club’s midfield depth is backed by Andrew McGrath, who missed a number of games through injury, as did Dylan Shiel and Jye Caldwell, Jake Stringer, Kyle Langford and the draftee Ben Hobbs.
In the ruck is the physical Sam Draper, who also missed much of 2021.
Up forward is enough ability to capitalise should the midfield become more dominant, given the Bombers were fifth for kicking goals in 2021.
Should the midfield depth materialise, Stringer may use his brilliance more often in the forward line, having kicked 41 goals in 2021 playing both in the middle and up forward.
Peter Wright (203cm), who kicked 13 goals in the last five games, may also improve in 2022 through added confidence.
The 21-year-old Harrison Jones could be a potential star with his height, courage and ability.
Other players with height who could be useful up forward include Nik Cox, Kaine Baldwin, Aaron Francis and Karl Langford.
Besides Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who kicked 34 goals in 2021, Essendon’s small forwards include Will Snelling and Archie Perkins.
With regard to defence, which did improve in 2021 yet probably remains the club’s most glaring weakness, there is the possibility of the former All Australian Michael Hurley returning in 2022.
Yet, Jayden Laverde played all 23 games last season, recording career-high averages in marks and disposals per game, and ranking in the top 50 for intercepts.
Jordan Ridley is also improving and ranked in the top 30 for intercepts among all players, top ten for rebounds per game, and top 50 for effective disposals per game.
James Stewart and Francis can also play as key lockdown defenders.
Essendon already move the ball quickly from defence through players such as skipper Dyson Heppell, the speedy Nick Hind, and Mason Redman, while the recruitment of Jake Kelly may prove beneficial as a lockdown small/medium defender.
Yet, any successful team must also have luck with injuries and other issues that may impact a player’s availability.
Already, Essendon’s best small forward, McDonald-Tipungwuti, has been granted leave as he deals with an ongoing calf issue and personal issues that saw him miss the tail-end of 2021.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
A team also needs a good preseason to make important improvements in speed, strength and fitness, as the modern AFL footballer must engage in frequent, high-intensity sprint efforts for longer periods of time with players covering 11 to 17km per match.
As the Bombers have many talented young players with lighter builds, a good summer of weight training can build enough muscle to make an important difference when competing against leading, bigger-body opponents.
We shall see how such players shape up in football terms this year.
Finally, a successful club needs great leadership and club harmony.
Despite the calm mannerisms of coach Ben Rutten thus far on the television screen, coaching cannot be easy.
One would like to think the days are gone when Des Tuddenham demanded players crawl on hands and knees around the training oval twice after an after an 80-point loss to Carlton.
The AFL is a wonderful sporting competition, but success in an ultra-competitive professional league is difficult.
While I hope Essendon can improve considerably in 2022 season after its 8th place in 2021, only
time will tell whether the Dons prove to be a premiership contender.
But, as a fan, I wish the Bombers good fortune in 2022.
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