- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Opinion
With New South Wales under water and Victorian radiant in beautiful sunshine, the scene is set for another weekend of racing in two extremely different conditions.
Trainers have the option of taking to the bottomless heavy at Randwick with their wet-trackers, or sticking to the Flemington firm for those who enjoy running on top of the ground.
With a Group 1 Guineas over 1600 metres taking place on both tracks, it has created a fascinating week of seeing who runs where.
The most fascinating Australian Guineas field this century has been assembled, with the two betting favourites both first-up at the mile, coming off Group 1 wins over further distance in the spring.
Profondo was all set to start his campaign in Sydney until the wild weather hit, but luckily has an alternative in Melbourne. He proved his special qualities as a horse by winning the Spring Champion at just his third start, with some distance to other horses behind him.
Profondo was about as raw as it gets in his debut campaign, but looks to be maturing nicely based off his recent trials. Robbie Dolan will be pushing forward from gate 15 to try and take a position, and we’ll see if he’s furnished enough to take out such a hot race at just his fourth start.
Hitotsu won the VRC Derby in unusual fashion, stepping straight up from the 1600 metres of the Caulfield Guineas without a bridging run over 2000 metres in between. He was just too classy for the Derby field despite getting shuffled back to the tail just before they hit the home turn.
Hitotsu was a pleasing fifth in the Caulfield Guineas when being trained for the Derby, so the question is whether he can beat them all at the same distance now.
Pinstriped is the three-year-old on the rise, unbeaten after the three career starts. There are always a couple of late maturing types that don’t quite make to the big spring races but have an impact in the autumn, and this Enver Jusufovic gelding is shaping as one of those.
He really got going late in the CS Hayes, always a key lead-up race to the Australian Guineas, to nail Pascero. That colt was also unbeaten before being gunned down there, but is twice the odds of Pinstriped. I’m not sure he should be. They look two smart horses as the fresh blood on the scene.
Of those that have been more exposed, Captivant looks the bomb-proof standout of the field. He’s been racing at the top level his entire career and his two previous cracks at 1600 metres have produced a win in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes at two, and a half-length second to Anamoe in the Caulfield Guineas in the spring.
Jamie Kah takes the ride on Captivant, and he meets Pinstriped 2.5 kilograms better for being beaten a length and change last start.
Of the others, Coastwatch, Lightsaber and Ranch Hand will have admirers at double-figure odds, but will have question marks over their stamina at the end of 1600 metres.
The best of Coastwatch was right up with Anamoe in the Golden Rose in the spring, and he returned in winning form three weeks ago.
Lightsaber was ahead of Hitotsu in the Caulfield Guineas, not far off Anamoe and Captivant, and chased Marabi two starts back – that’s the hottest form around at the moment.
Ranch Hand has often been seen as the level below the best of his age, but almost always runs honestly and can be expected to figure if the breaks go his way.
Selections: 1.Captivant 2.Pinstriped 3.Profondo 4.Lightsaber
Anamoe is the star three-year-old in the country, having compiled an excellent record of class and competitiveness in his four campaigns.
He was placed in the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper at two, before taking out the Sires Produce in the most effortless Group 1 win. In the spring he won the Caulfield Guineas either side of seconds in the Golden Rose and Cox Plate.
It doesn’t matter where he races or on what ground, he’s the one to beat. And the Godolphin camp are very happy for him to run on a genuine heavy given his soft track runs have been some of the best of his career. He deserves every bit of his even money favouritism.
Who can beat him?
Coastwatch and Ranch Hand have also accepted for the Australian Guineas, but trainer Chris Waller will split them up – we just don’t know which way yet. They are both top-five chances regardless of which race they run in.
Forgot You is likely to run in this rather than at Flemington, given he has proven adept on soft ground during his career. He’s got enough talent to push the favourite, but isn’t the most tractable racehorse.
Hilal and Converge filled the placings behind Anamoe in the Hobartville Stakes, and while that was on a soft 6, it’s nothing like the ground they’ll face on Saturday.
Hilal is finally putting it together and racing consistently after being prone to doing things wrong throughout his journey. He’s certainly got sharp acceleration. Converge likely has more stamina and should enjoy the wet ground being by Frankel, and has returned in fine fettle after not quite showing up in the spring.
If looking for a roughie at bigger odds, Military Expert had form around Coastwatch and Lightsaber in his first prep, but wasn’t the finished product. His win last start in lesser grade might be the spark he needs. Royalzel has shown an affinity for heavy tracks, but has been woefully out of form.
Selections: 1.Anamoe 2.Forgot You 3.Converge 4.Hilal
Zaaki has been scratched from this event, lured by the sunshine of Melbourne and the promise of a beautiful Flemington track.
In his absence, Forbidden Love has been installed favourite off the back of her romp through the slops in winning the Guy Walter last Saturday.
She showed her class as a three-year-old filly with a placing in the Myer Classic and win in the Surround Stakes, but wasn’t at her best in the spring as a four-year-old. She’s returned with a vengeance this prep though with two strong performances, and is a proven swimmer.
(Image byJackieLou DL via Pixabay)
Lighthouse has been sent north by the Maher/Eustace yard, who obviously sense she’ll relish the conditions. She’s coming off a solid Orr Stakes run when splitting genuine Group 1 performers in Tofane and Cascadian, and there’ll be no fitter horse in the field.
Laws of Indices is the new horse on the scene, and has marked his talent in two Australian runs behind seriously good horses in I’m Thunderstruck and Lost and Running. We’re still learning about exactly where he sits in the scheme of things.
Epsom winner Private Eye is also to be reckoned with, if he’s been set for this. Watch for his booming finish late. Dalasan loves Sydney and generally appreciates wet ground, but might find this a bit short for his liking. Special Reward also enjoys rain, and was last seen crossing the line with Colette behind Think It Over, so his form is strong.
Dice Roll is the sneaky blow-out. He was a lip from being a Group 1 winner in the spring, just behind Sierra Sue in the Rupert Clarke at Caulfield. That form looks even better now after she won the Futurity last week. He can run a big race first-up.
Selections: 1.Forbidden Love 2.Private Eye 3.Lighthouse 4.Dice Roll