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MICHAEL HAGAN: Settled halves make NRL top four clear, while others are at sixes and sevens

8th March, 2022
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(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Expert
8th March, 2022
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Rugby league is not rocket science and the teams who I think will make the top four are the ones who go into this year with the most settled halves combination that hasn’t changed over the off-season.

Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai at Penrith, Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster at the Storm, Mitch Moses and Dylan Brown at Parramatta and the old firm of Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran at Manly.

Apart from the occasional year here and there, premiership-winning teams all have halves who have played Origin or Test footy – it’s a huge advantage for those four teams. (Cleary and Luai 2021, Munster and Hughes 2020, Cooper Cronk and Luke Keary 2019, 2018)

You toss in the fullback and hooker at those four teams and they’re all settled as well. 

From a coaching point of view, these sides who are sure of their spine have a decided advantage in the opening month or two in particular.

I think barring something catastrophic, I believe those four teams will make up the top four in some order. Parramatta are going to be right in that mix of better teams because they’ve kept their spine, forward pack and they have built up a fair bit of continuity over the past few years.

The Roosters and Rabbitohs are locks for the finals and beyond that everyone has a chance of making the eight with a lot of the movement of talent between the teams.

Cronulla (with a new coach in Craig Fitzgibbon and an emphasis on defence) and the Titans would be my prediction just ahead of the Knights and the Raiders. The loss of Jamal Fogarty for much of the year with his knee injury is a big blow for the Green Machine.

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Newcastle are probably the team likely to drop out of the eight with no Mitchell Pearce and their hooker, Jayden Brailey, out for the year – that’s going to hurt them because it’s hard to get improvement if you don’t have a genuine combination between your hooker and halves. They will be relying heavily on the brilliance of Kalyn Ponga in attack and he must be their best player every week if they hope to force their way into the top eight again.

Apart from the top four, in all the other teams there’s either new halves in place who have switched teams or rookies trying to establish their spot in the top grade.

And that makes for some uncertainty right across the competition.

Adam Reynolds.

Adam Reynolds poses during the launch of the Brisbane Broncos 2022 NRL Season jersey. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Souths made the grand final with Adam Reynolds wearing the No.7 jersey last year but they’ve now got Lachlan Ilias, who only has one NRL game under his belt.

The Roosters have Sam Walker, who even though he did really well in his first season, he’s still very green but at least he will have Luke Keary by his side in 2022 teaching him the tricks of the trade.

Reynolds at Brisbane, Chad Townsend at the Cowboys, Shaun Johnson at the Warriors, Adam Clune at Newcastle, Nicho Hynes at Cronulla, Brad Schneider at the Raiders now that Fogarty has gone down injured. I can’t remember seeing six new starting halfbacks at clubs to start a year – apart from the Knights, all the others missed the finals so it’s clear the coaches think having the right playmaker in place is the key for them to get back into the playoffs.

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And it’s not just the halfbacks at the lower-ranked teams. Junior Amone is a rookie at the Dragons, the Cowboys will have Tom Dearden or Scott Drinkwater alongside Townsend, AJ Brimson hasn’t played five-eighth before and he’s got an inexperienced half next to him at the Titans in Toby Sexton.

Cam Munster against the Panthers

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

With Reynolds at the Broncos, there’s a few unknowns about who will fit best in the halves alongside him. It’s going to take some time for Kevin Walters and a few of the other coaches to work out where they land.

Are they going to persevere with halves combos and hold their nerve or are they going to get jumpy when the first few losses start piling up, which happens all the time in the NRL.

Some teams are going to show genuine improvement but it may not be enough to get them too far up the ladder.

There’s a lot of ageing playmakers in the NRL so it’s time for some of the younger halves to step up.

A young halfback like Ilias at Souths will have a tremendous advantage of having Cody Walker at five-eighth. Walker used to have the luxury of Reynolds being the game manager and he just had to turn up when needed to show his creative skills.

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Maybe Latrell Mitchell has to take on a bit more of a role as a first or second receiver. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mitchell plays five-eighth and Blake Taaffe slots in at fullback. With Damien Cook at hooker, they’re still going to have enough strikepower to give the top teams a run for their money this year.

An important part of the halves debate is the quality of the forward pack you’re dealing with and Souths have certainly got all the boxes ticked there as far as momentum and being defensively sound, particularly with Cameron Murray at lock.

Another factor is what I call the “third wheel” who can come in and do a job either off the bench like Benji Marshall last year at Souths or a lock like Victor Radley, Brandon Smith, Isaiah Yeo, Jake Trbojevic who can take some pressure off the playmakers.

Mitchell Moses offloads the ball.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Smith is now available for Round 1, filling in at hooker with Harry Grant suspended, and having him on top of an already strong forward pack will be do wonders for them against the Tigers.

Having an all-rounder that you can bring on as a third playmaker can be an enormous boost, sometimes replacing one of your two main halves when needed or just running around in a fill-in role in the middle against tired forwards, which has become very much a specialist role off the bench.

As a coach I’d be looking to give those new halves combinations at least 4-6 weeks as an opportunity to develop their relationships with each other and the team before you start looking to change things up. 

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Michael Hagan’s column will appear every Wednesday with a focus on a coach’s perspective on the big issues and tactical moves. If you have a question please leave it in the comment section.

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