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We started this week with a look at the bottom five sides from last year’s AFL season, and who could swing a surprise and surge back into finals contention in 2022. Then, on Wednesday, it was the turn of the five teams on the precipice of the eight.
If you’ll recall, I’ve tipped two teams – Richmond and Collingwood – to return to the joys and perils of September action this year. But that means – unless Craig Hutchison finally gets his way on that wildcard round – two of last year’s finalists will have to make way for them.
That’s far from unusual: indeed, every year since the top-eight finals system was introduced all the way back in 1994, at least two teams from the previous year’s pointy-end action have failed to make the cut. Last year’s cull of four teams – premiers Richmond, St Kilda, Collingwood and West Coast – was the equal-most on record, too.
In every single one of those years, a non-preliminary finalist – that is, a team that lost a semi- or elimination final under the current system – fell out of the race at the next time of asking.
Whether it’s a team at the end of the line like West Coast last year or North Melbourne in 2016, or a team that quickly rose before falling away like Essendon in 2009 or Essendon in 2014 or Essendon in 2017 or… you know what, you get the general idea – making the finals the year before isn’t always a road to future success.
With that in mind, here are the four finals also-rans from 2021 – for what it’s worth, I’ve ranked each team based on their finishing position post-finals, so Brisbane sit 5th despite ending the home-and-away season in the top four.
Essendon
8th, 11-11, 109.1%, lost elimination final
Ins: Jake Kelly (ADE), Ben Hobbs, Alastair Lord, Garrett McDonough, Patrick Voss (draft), Nick Martin, Tex Wanganeen (SSP)
Outs: Ned Cahill, Dylan Clarke, Martin Gleeson, Lachie Johnson (del.), Patrick Ambrose, Cale Hooker, Irving Mosquito, David Zaharakis (ret.)
Ben Rutten’s first year at the helm of Windy Hill can only be deemed an unqualified success. Tipped by many to fall towards the foot of the ladder after a much-publicised player exodus and years of treading water under John Worsfold, a reinvigorated bunch of Bombers united under the new man in charge, found a new defensive steel and caught fire at the back end of the season to hit the finals in, seemingly, peak form.
Their fairytale run ended with a crushing – I can’t quite bring myself to say controversial – elimination final loss to the Western Bulldogs, leaving the Dons with a now-17-year finals victory drought still hanging over their heads. It’s now officially longer than Richmond’s famous streak from 2001 to 2017 – although Dons fans would surely take all that and more for even a third of the success the Tigers have had since.
Key to the Bombers’ success was a new-look and damaging midfield, with Darcy Parish transforming from bit-part player into All Australian when given the chance and Jake Stringer putting together comfortably his best season in red and black. If the nucleus of a great side lies in midfield, then Rutten wasted no time in cultivating an excellent, multi-dimensional mitochondrion. (I’m fairly sure this is an accurate analogy, but feel free to correct me, chemistry-loving Roarers.).
The Bombers still have work to do – their defence is still some way off being good enough to challenge for a flag in earnest, while their key forward options remain works in progress. But even then, the signs are encouraging – Peter Wright looks well worth the minuscule price paid to lure him from the Gold Coast, Harry Jones is a tantalising prospect with beautiful hands, and a backline marshalled wonderfully by captain Dyson Heppell and held together by still-developing talls in Jordan Ridley and Aaron Francis did better than it had any right to.
Nevertheless, it might not be the Bombers’ time just yet. For all the gains of 2021, they still ended up losing more games than they won – the last team to make finals with only 11 wins outside the shortened 2020 season was Carlton in 2010, not counting the 2013 year when the Dons’ supplements program handed the Blues their spot in the eight on a platter.
Jake Stringer has already had his latest interrupted season, and backing up his best years hasn’t been a forte of ‘the Package’. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti has had injury and personal strife to contend with, and won’t be seen at AFL level for at least the first few rounds. Add in the retired Cale Hooker, and that’s the Bombers’ top-three goalkickers from last season all with varying degrees of doubt hanging over them to start the new year.
With a more difficult draw courtesy of their higher-placed finish than 2020, it might be a year for the Dons to take a step back to take two steps forward. Underestimate them at your peril, but with so many teams clamouring for their spot in the eight, eleven wins probably won’t be enough this time around.
Prediction: 11th
Jake Stringer (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Sydney
7th, 15-7, 119.9%, lost elimination final
Ins: Peter Ladhams (PA), Angus Sheldrick, Matthew Roberts, Corey Warner, Lachlan Rankin (draft), Paddy McCartin (SSP)
Outs: Jordan Dawson (ADE), George Hewett (CAR), Kaiden Brand, Malachy Carruthers, Sam Gray, Matthew Ling (del.)
Even through their years near the top of the AFL’s pecking order, Sydney were seldom considered more than the ugly ducklings of the competition. Their bash-and-crash style, defence-first approach and ruthless commitment to the ball as well as the fabled ‘Bloods Culture’ were rarely fashionable, but mostly effective, netting them two flags and a reputation for efficiency they’ve yet to give up.
2021 was the year those ugly ducklings turned into beautiful, well, swans. The new Sydney is awash with young talent – not ducklings, but cygnets – who run like the wind, kick beautifully and celebrate like they’re having the time of their lives. Think Errol Gulden, Chad Warner, Justin McInerney, Logan McDonald – all names you’ll be hearing plenty of down the track.
But it’s one thing to rise up the ladder, as the Swans did so perfectly after a 16th-placed finish in 2020; and quite another thing to stay up there. Rivals have come and snared tough nut George Hewett and superboot Jordan Dawson, both of whom will need to be replaced. Then there’s the small fact that their talisman and leading goalkicker, Lance Franklin, is now 35 and at last in the final year of his mega nine-year contract. A tougher fixture courtesy of their higher-placed finish isn’t ideal, either, though the Swans haven’t done too badly to be drawn up against only one of the sides that finished above them in the home-and-away season – the Western Bulldogs – twice.
Despite bowing out in the first week of finals, though, it’s hard to see the Swans falling back out of the eight so quickly, though many pundits do. 15 wins left them two and a half games and more than 20 per cent clear of their elimination finals conquerors, GWS; only percentage (and four defeats by 10 points or less) kept them from a top-four finish, or many even higher.
The Swans remind me a lot of the Western Bulldogs circa 2015 – a team of young talent marshalled by a core of senior heads who have seen and done it all before. They’ve even pulled a similar trick in moving champion midfield bull Josh Kennedy to the half-back line for the start of the season, in the mould of Matthew Boyd. If he won’t replace Dawson’s elite skills by foot, then his poise and composure will be a major boon for a still-youthful back six.
The role of Isaac Heeney will make for fascinating viewing this season: while he booted 36 goals last year and is perfectly suited to a mid-sized forward role, there’s a sense that he could be so much more. Another graduate of the Swans Academy, Callum Mills, made the transition to full-time midfielder after years as a half-back to devastating effect in 2021: is this the year Heeney does likewise?
The wildcard in defence, the Swans’ most vulnerable area, is Paddy McCartin. The former number one draft pick impressed enough in a year with their VFL counterparts to be given a second chance at an AFL career. After a pre-season as an integral member of the backline, he could be perfect for the monster-stopper role that would allow brother Tom to showcase his wares as an elite intercept marker, rather than needing to grapple with the most powerful forwards going around.
There are big things in store for the Swans, and while progress isn’t always linear, it would be a disappointment to everyone at the club to fall out of the eight. Making finals, and winning at least one, should be the goal: and for a list as talented and well-balanced as this one, that’s well within reach.
Prediction: 5th
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
GWS
6th, 11-1-10, 99.7%, lost semi final
Ins: Jarrod Brander (WCE), Finn Callaghan, Leek Aleer, Josh Fahey, Cooper Hamilton (draft)
Outs: Jeremy Finlayson (PA), Matt Buntine, Tom Hutchesson, Sam Reid, Nick Shipley (del.), Shane Mumford (ret.)
The most crucial thing to happen to GWS in 2022 might, bizarrely, have happened six months ago.
Toby Greene’s umpire bump in their elimination final win over Sydney has been debated ever since, but the cold hard facts are that the Giants will be without their star, talisman, and now co-captain, for the first five rounds of the year.
A slow start isn’t the be all and end all – the Giants recovered from losing their first three games last year to sneak into the finals. But in no small part was that thanks to Greene’s heroics, both as a forward and acting skipper. Replacing him, even temporarily, will be a Herculean task for Leon Cameron.
But let’s give the man his due – after copping calls for his head as early as Round 2, Cameron was able to turn the tide and get the Giants back into the finals after a major hiccup in 2020. He may be criticised for not having landed the five premierships many envisioned from the club’s arsenal of first-round picks, but a record of five finals appearances in eight years at the club is to be commended.
The Giants ranked mid-table last year for both points (eighth) and points against (seventh), as well as inside-50s (eighth again). Key to their success was a return to form for their midfield, led by Josh Kelly and Tim Taranto, which ranked fifth for total disposals and clearances and sixth for contested possessions. None of it is earth-shattering, but it’s all the hallmarks of a good, solid club, which the Giants clearly are.
Down in defence, Sam Taylor was a revelation after a 2020 destroyed by injury, and looks the pillar around which the Giants’ back six can be built for a decade. The same goes for Harry Himmelberg up forward, the little brother to the likes of Jeremy Cameron and Jonathon Patton in years gone by becoming a star in his own right.
Jesse Hogan, despite injury interruptions, managed 20 goals from his nine games – double that across a full season, and he’ll be worth the risk they took to snare the troubled star from Fremantle.
Those five weeks without Greene, though, promise to be a nightmare. The only match they’ll start outright favourites in is against Gold Coast at home in Round 3. The rest? Sydney, Richmond at the MCG, Fremantle in Perth and Melbourne at the MCG. Yikes. If Greene comes back to a 1-4 scoreline, even he will struggle to salvage that.
As I said with Essendon, 11 wins (or 11 and a half in the Giants’ case) probably won’t cut it again as far as finals are concerned. The Giants will need to improve by at least a win and a half, and maybe even two, to give themselves a chance of finals heroics as they did last year, with the handicap of losing their best player for the most difficult stretch of the season.
Even making finals would be a commendable effort for Cameron, and the Giants still have more than enough talent to pull it off. But you’d be a brave man to back them to do it, and with two sides set to drop out of the eight, they seem one of the likelier candidates.
Prediction: 10th
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Brisbane
5th, 15-7, 133.3%, lost semi final
Ins: Darcy Fort (GEE), Darcy Wilmot, Kai Lohmann, James Tunstill (draft), Mitch Cox (SSP)
Outs: Connor Ballenden, Tom Joyce, Brock Smith (del.), Grant Birchall, Archie Smith (ret.)
As heartbreaking and controversial as Brisbane’s semi-final defeat to the Western Bulldogs was, their eventual finishing position felt about right. The Lions were good for much of 2021 – and at times, brilliant – but sporadic lapses in form left them on the fringes of the top for for most of the year, only squeezing in in the final fifteen seconds of their home-and-away season.
At their best, the Lions are lethal. They were 2021’s highest-scoring side by the length of Harris Andrews’ arms, with Joe Daniher slotting in brilliantly with 46 goals in his first season at the Gabba. They finished the home-and-away season with the highest percentage in the league, always a sign of strength. And their midfield, perfectly balanced between the experience of Dayne Zorko, Lachie Neale and Jarryd Lyons with the upcoming talent of Hugh McCluggage, Zac Bailey and Jarrod Berry… wow.
That Brisbane will be contending for the flag again in 2022 isn’t a foregone conclusion, but it’s pretty close. Only the boldest pundit would envisage them so much as falling outside the top four, let alone missing the finals altogether. The side that Chris Fagan has assembled might only be behind Melbourne as the most complete in the AFL.
However, the Lions have a sizeable monkey on their backs – their record in finals under Fagan is woeful. In the last three years, they’ve played six finals – all at the Gabba, a venue they’ve been all but unbeatable at in the regular season – and lost all but one. Granted, two – 2019 against GWS and last year against the Bulldogs – have been thrillers that could easily have swung their way, but it’s still a worrying sign that the Lions’ devastating attack doesn’t stand up to the cut and thrust of finals.
(Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Fixing that will be the Lions’ biggest priority for the new season, but surely a group this talented can’t continue to choke indefinitely. Even Port Adelaide, who regularly messed up in finals from 2001 to 2003, eventually got it right in 2004. Another year of finals near-misses, though, and serious questions might start to be raised.
Prediction: 1st
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