Opinion
We’re right in the thick of autumn racing now, with multiple Group 1 races being run between Melbourne and Sydney each week. There have been plenty of great clashes and memorable moments already, and Saturday promises plenty more.
Newmarket Handicap
What a great race the Newmarket is, and has been for more than a century. It’s the Melbourne Cup equivalent for sprinters in this country – a huge field squaring off at Flemington, each with a chance given the handicap nature of the event. And this year has given us some real top-end class.
Interestingly for a 17-horse Group 1 handicap, two horses have a stranglehold on betting, with every other horse $11 or better.
Home Affairs has been favourite ever since he took out the Lightning Stakes two weeks ago, defeating the Everest trifecta of Nature Strip, Eduardo and Masked Crusader. Couple that with his dominant Coolmore Stud Stakes win down the straight on Derby Day last year, and he’s easy to like.
Lost and Running has been firming ever since whisper started filtering out that trainer John O’Shea prefers to run his rising sprinter on good ground rather than the Sydney wet.
He actually beat Home Affairs home in the Everest, where he was fourth behind the aforementioned trio, and meets the star colt 5.5kgs better for it. Lost and Running is without question getting better each time we see him this season – when you keep raising the bar, it’s harder for the handicapper to catch up with you.
Looking to the Lightning Stakes behind Home Affairs, Swat’s That (fourth), Masked Crusader (fifth) and The Astrologist (seventh) are all here.
Swat’s That is a gun straight horse, has plenty of class, and will appreciate the conditions dropping 4kgs. She simply has to be in the mix. The Astrologist has always loved the straight in lower grade and drops 6kgs from the Lightning, but does have a question mark over his class.
Masked Crusader is ostensibly one of the big guns of the Australian sprinting ranks. His nose second in The Everest splitting Nature Strip and Eduardo screams that. But he’s not the most genuine horse running around, and he’s now coming off two sub-par runs – his last run in the spring and his first-up performance in the Lightning. It’s a mini D-day for him.
Three horses come into the Newmarket from the Oakleigh Plate, form that was franked last week when Malkovich won at Flemington after running fourth in the Caulfield sprint.
Oxley Road was third there, but doesn’t strike as a great straight horse and 1200m is a test for him. Zoutori was an unlucky 12th, but he did win this race last year, albeit a much weaker edition. He is an outstanding straight horse though. Poland is $81 but is capable of giving more of a sight than that.
Winning the Newmarket first-up is a once-in-a-lifetime event, and Redkirk Warrior has already done it in ours. Count De Rupee, Quantico and September Run are all capable of winning a race like this on their day, but history is against them. The first two are growing into serious horses, while we haven’t seen the best of the latter in a long time.
We love three-year-olds against older horses at this time of year, and Artorius and Finance Tycoon have plenty of credentials to suggest they belong.
(Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)
Artorius has one of the best finishes in racing, but has a lot of good horses to run past from the tail where he will surely be. Gosh he’s exciting though. Finance Tycoon is a fast horse, but feels more suited around a turn rather racing up on the speed in a big Newmarket field.
Roch’n’horse and Levante ran the quinella in the Telegraph in New Zealand, but the Kiwi sprinting form rarely stands up in Australia. Snapdancer has been winning some good races around the traps and the Maher/Eustace team are capable of anything, but this seems a stretch. Halvorsen is back to his best but has found a hot race.
Not every Newmarket shapes as a classic, but this one does. Two rising stars are vying for favouritism, and a host of quality horses could get the best of either one.
Selections: 1.Lost and Running 2.Swat’s That 3.Home Affairs 4.Artorius
Australian Cup
The Australian Cup doesn’t quite have the depth of its glory days, especially with plenty of prize money in Sydney for the middle-distance types and the All-Star mile next week. Still, a competitive field has been assembled.
Think It Over is the worthy favourite after a remarkable last year which has seen him win seven races at Group level. He’s been masterfully placed to win some of those, avoiding a trip to Melbourne in the spring, but has also beaten home heavy hitters like Verry Elleegant and Colette at times too.
(Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Looking for a horse to beat him, it’s another evergreen stalwart that keeps improving with age in Cascadian. He’s had a fantastic 2021/22 season, taking on the best at WFA or carrying good weights in Group 1 handicaps. He appeals as an each-way special.
Spanish Mission is certainly firm in the market, but we need to see him do it over 2000m against these horses. He made his name as a genuine stayer in Europe, and was great in the Melbourne Cup last year.
Duais is down from Sydney, and has been putting the writing on the wall with some fast finishes this prep, but has a bit of ground to make up on Think It Over from the two times they’ve met. She’ll be conceding him a start again.
She’s Ideel also looks ready to strike, just as she did third-up in the spring. This is tougher, though, but she’s sure to give a good account.
Callsign Mav creates interest at a bit of odds, even though he missed that run in the Peter Young and is now a month between appearances. He’s the possible leader, crossing over from out wide. It’s hard to know exactly where Delphi and Maximal are at after indifferent performances first-up, but neither would completely surprise.
Regardless of race shape, Think It Over looks a tough nut to crack. He can sit second or third and sprint off a slower speed, or can sit a pair further back and sweep into the race if the tempo is more genuine. From barrier four, Nash Rawiller, who rides him so well, is going to have every option.
Selections: 1.Think It Over 2.Cascadian 3.Callsign Mav 4.Duais
Coolmore Classic
The Coolmore Classic is the Sydney Group 1 this weekend, and while not the most prestigious on the calendar, it gives the fillies and mares a chance to get a win at the highest level under handicap conditions.
Espiona is the market leader, but is she something of a false favourite coming off a couple of grinding runs, the last of which was on a bottomless track, earlier this prep? The jury is a bit out, but she at least didn’t seem to mind the wet conditions.
Hinged beat Espiona in the Surround, but has to concede her weight here. Some would argue that she had the favours that Espiona didn’t in that race.
Promise of Success is prominent in the market, and she was only winning benchmark 72 three starts ago, so perhaps this isn’t the strongest edition we’ve ever seen. She enjoyed the wet to run second behind Forbidden Love in the Guy Walter, and that’s the best wet track form around at the moment.
Lighthouse has also run second to Forbidden Love on a heavy track, last week in the Canterbury. She comes back to a handicap from WFA, so is a serious player.
Could Atishu be the surprise packet? She was backed strongly last start before standing in the gates and essentially never taking part. The market said she was going to get through the ground okay, and she was very competitive in the Epsom during spring.
You can make cases for a few others too. Wandabaa is a hard mare to catch, but is more than capable on her day. Expat wins a lot of races and is still improving – if she’s allowed to dictate the race, they’ll have a hell of a time running her down.
Selections: 1.Lighthouse 2.Expat 3.Espiona 4.Wandabaa
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