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Opinion
It’s not been a good few years to be a Broncos fan, and if you believe the bookies, that is set to continue into 2022.
They couldn’t have asked for a much tougher start, either, with grand finalists South Sydney their first opponents at Suncorp Stadium.
While it has been a historically bad period for the club, the Broncs’ home record is not actually that bad: last year they went 6-6 at home, losing to the top five and the Wests Tigers while beating everyone else – well, at least in the games that were listed as home games, given several fixtures were played in Brisbane due to the pandemic.
South Sydney are undoubtedly one of the better sides in the comp, but they are far from unbeatable: Brisbane have plenty of firepower and could take advantage of a few key absentees in the Bunnies line-up.
It goes without saying that the Broncos have to play to their strengths, and that is their strike players out wide.
In Kotoni Staggs and Herbie Farnworth, the Broncs have as good a centre pairing as any in the NRL, but they have very rarely been able to field the pair at the same time.
For Round 1, both are on deck and could be a real handful for South Sydney – if they get enough ball.
Kurt Capewell is a big in for 2022 as well and will line up inside Staggs, with Corey Oates on the wing: it’s an impressive amount of size, speed and skills, but they need space and time to operate.
Too often last year, the Broncos failed to move the football fast enough and ended up losing momentum.
With Adam Reynolds missing and a makeshift playmaking pair of Albert Kelly and Billy Walters, the Broncos have nothing to lose by shifting to their strike players as often as possible and making the game expansive.
Now, given that they don’t really have any halves, they’ve got no excuse not to spread to where they are strong – early and often.
The big addition for the Broncos this season is Adam Reynolds – sidelined for this game due to COVID – and he’s also the main loss for Souths.
His replacement, Lachlan Ilias, looks like a gun – but this is only his second game of NRL.
Souths’ attack last year was predicated on Reynolds steering the ship and allowing Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker to be creative off the back, but with Reynolds gone and Mitchell suspended, there’s an opportunity for the Broncos to get at Ilias and throw him off his game.
Kevin Walters has to get his men battering Ilias in defence and making his life as difficult as possible when kicking the ball.
There’s no doubting Ilias has the chops to be an NRL half, but if the Broncos can cause him issues, especially early in the piece, they can set the tone of the game and remove some of the threat caused by Walker in attack.
Payne Haas. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
In reference to the first point above, one of the truisms of rugby league is that one needs to earn the right to play. If your pack gets beaten, then your backs go nowhere.
The Broncos can win the forwards battle, but for that to happen, Walters has to get his interchanges right.
Souths have named four big bodies – Siliva Haivili might be the biggest hooker in the comp if he’s used there by the Bunnies – on their bench and will look to roll them through the game to ensure Payne Haas, in particular, doesn’t get a chance to take over.
The Broncos bench does have a back on it – Tyrone Roberts – which can work to their advantage if they box clever with their subs.
Rhys Kennedy had the unusual stat of featuring every time that Brisbane won a game last season and has to be used properly to gain maximum impact. TC Robati, too, can make a dent into defences, but only for a shortened period.
When the Broncos performed optimally against top opposition last season – which wasn’t necessarily in victory, but when they pushed the Roosters and Panthers close at Suncorp – it was in part because they drew a huge performance from Haas and supplemented his intensity with Kennedy’s impact off the bench.
In the world of the six again, good teams can pile on the points in quick succession, and it’s vital for weaker teams to stay in the game and create the conditions for a boilover. That’s where a Roberts off the bench can come in late and cause havoc.
Souths will look to keep on the pressure throughout – Brisbane have to be able to match that as an absolute minimum for their strike players out wide to stand a chance.