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The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 1

15th March, 2022
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15th March, 2022
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We’re back!

After six long months of waiting, AFL men’s action will be back tonight! And whether you’re a Melbourne fan coming off the best summer of your life, or a North Melbourne supporter thrilled to devote your time to some other hobby, we’re all surely united by one thing: we can’t wait to see what 2022 has in store.

Taking over from Stirling Coates, this is my first year as part of The Roar’s AFL tipping competition – and facing off against some seasoned pros who’ve been there and done it all before, I’m definitely going to have my work cut out for me to take out the title on debut.

Joining me are Liam Salter and Dem Panopoulos, backing up from last year, as well as a blast from the past, with Cameron Rose returning to the competition for the first time since 2018. Show them some love and keep coming back to read their latest pieces throughout the year.

Congratulations must go to all of you who entered The Roar’s tipping comp last year – The Crowd scraped over the line to take out top spot by a solitary tip in the final round in 2021. If you haven’t signed up for this year, make sure you do it now, and get your tips in before 5pm tonight to be counted in The Crowd’s tips for the week.

For the first time since 2014, the season opener won’t be the traditional blockbuster between Richmond and Carlton. They’ll still be duking it out on Thursday night as always – but in 2022, we’re starting on a Wednesday night, with the grand final rematch between Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs.

Good luck everyone, and may the best tipster win!

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Christian Petracca of the Demons celebrates a goal

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Tim Miller

Melbourne, Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Fremantle, West Coast

Round 1 is always the hardest to tip – I’ve lost count of the times where I’ve dealt my season a crippling blow with a 3 or even a 2 to kick off the year.

This year is no different – just about every match could really swing either way, from the grand final replay to start us off on Wednesday, all the way through to Gold Coast’s trip to Perth to take on an injury-ravaged West Coast.

The plan is simple – whatever my gut tells me to do, this year I’m doing the opposite, at least until we start to get a good idea of where every team sits in the pecking order.

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I’m loath to tip against my Bulldogs, but the Dees’ dominance in the second half of the grand final, and the Dogs’ lack of tall forward options to support Aaron Naughton against the best backline in the league, worries me. Equally, while I think this is Carlton’s best chance in just about a decade to topple Richmond in their annual Round 1 clash, I’ve tipped the Tigers for my top eight this year, and the occasion of a Thursday night is a perfect time for them to remind the AFL world that they’re still a force to be reckoned with.

That same reasoning is why I’m backing Collingwood and Geelong to start their seasons on a winning note against St Kilda and Essendon, even though my gut is screaming at me that the Bombers’ pace and youthful midfield might cause enormous problems for the Cats’ ageing group.

No Toby Greene is huge for GWS, and I’ve got big wraps on where Sydney are headed – for me, that’s the safest tip in a volatile week. Lance Franklin, though, might have to wait another week or two to bag the five goals he needs for the magical 1000, given he’ll be coming up against a Giants’ defence spearheaded by star on the rise Sam Taylor.

Brisbane get an early litmus test at home in the form of Port Adelaide, but the Lions have comfortably dealt with the Power at the Gabba for the last two years and should do so again. Gold Coast head to Perth to face a West Coast side completely ravaged by injury and, now, COVID – Tim Kelly joins Dom Sheed, Elliot Yeo and a string of others in missing. Surely not even the Suns can pass up a winning chance this golden… right?

For me, the two Sunday afternoon games are the hardest to pick of the bunch – first, Adelaide’s home ground advantage comes up against Fremantle’s much-improved midfield and smothering defence. I’ve backed the Dockers in a tight one even though the loss of Matt Taberner hits their scoring ability hard.

Then I’ve gone for Hawthorn to edge North Melbourne due to the ‘new coach factor’ of Sam Mitchell – if the Hawks can continue their hot form from the end of last year, they just may cause a few surprises in 2022.

Sam Mitchell of the Hawks addresses players

(Photo by Cameron Grimes/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

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Dem Panopoulos

Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, Geelong, Sydney, Brisbane, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Gold Coast

We are back!

Kicking the 2022 AFL season off with a grand final rematch between the Demons and Dogs is the right call to bring some excitement immediately to our doorstep.

Make no mistake, we can expect a much closer contest with both teams expected to be fast starters this season. If we go with one trend, the Bulldogs have had alternating wins and losses in Round 1 since 2017; and combined with this game being at the MCG, the Dees might sneak home.

Carlton has a lot of pressure and expectation to deal with in 2022 and we can expect this to be their
most stern testing of the Tigers, having lost 11 in a row against them.

Richmond have gone under the radar after a down year in 2021 and will look to reclaim a finals spot – they should handle business here.

The Saints and the Magpies are likely to put on a decent show, despite me thinking the Saints will miss finals and Collingwood will win the wooden spoon.  Brodie Grundy against Rowan Marshall is a super fun contest in the ruck, but at their feet, you’d expect too much firepower in the Saints’ midfield for the Pies here.

Geelong owns a pretty good record against an Essendon team we need to temper our expectations of. Youngster Max Holmes will fill in a wing spot and show the competition why the Cats had traded up for him in his draft year, while it’ll be interesting to see if Darcy Parish takes his game to another level this season after breaking out in 2021.

The Swans should beat a Toby Greene-less GWS after the enthralling elimination final last season, with all eyes on the half-back line of Sydney and their speed of ball movement out of defence, especially without resident superboot Jordan Dawson in the ranks anymore.

Brisbane have won their last four against Port Adelaide and one would expect the streak to continue
at home, with their teams potentially trending in opposite directions this season.

North Melbourne can beat a Hawthorn team missing a few key rebounding components in Jarman Impey and Will Day, while my high expectations of the Dockers must see them improve their 2-9 record at Adelaide Oval if they’re serious about a finals tilt in 2022.

Finally, the Eagles are an absolute shambles. Come on, Suns.

Ben Ainsworth of the Suns celebrates kicking a goal

(Photo by Matt Roberts/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Cameron Rose

Melbourne, Carlton, St Kilda, Essendon, GWS, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Gold Coast
Round 1 is always tricky, so we’ll do the best we can.

Melbourne are the only lock for top four this year, so best to just tip them 22 times, regardless of opposition.

Carlton have a nice buzz about them and can catch Richmond out, even with no Sam Walsh.

I’m expecting the Saints to bounce back into finals contention this year, and they look a good thing against the Pies in their first game under Craig McRae.

Geelong are notoriously slow starters off a break – they also haven’t won in Round 1 in either of the last two seasons, including a shock loss to Adelaide in 2021 – and I can easily see the Bombers midfield giving them the run around early – I don’t really trust Essendon though.


GWS have the wood on Sydney in big games – last year’s elimination final is Exhibit A – and Round 1 counts as one of those. You have to stick with Brisbane at home against Port Adelaide, but if it was in Adelaide you’d tip the other way.

Hawthorn over North in the Who Cares Cup of Rd 1, because you have to pick one of them!

Fremantle won’t have it all their own way against Adelaide on the road, but this is the sort of game they have to win if they want to play finals.

Gold Coast are traditionally at their best early in the season, and West Coast’s pre-season troubles have been well documented – the only question is, given the Eagles’ summer from hell, is that even an upset anymore?

Luke Shuey of West Coast Eagles looks dejected

(Photo by Matt Roberts/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, Essendon, Sydney, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Fremantle, West Coast

Footy! Footy! Actual footy!

God, it’s been an age since last year’s stunning grand final in Perth, but we’re back. Incidentally, I’m still so shocked by the Demons’ premiership, I’m not entirely unconvinced we’re not living in some sort of frightening twilight zone.

Nevertheless, there’s tips to be made so I’ll get on with it. 

We begin not with a traditional Carlton-Richmond clash – that one’s on Thursday wherein, long story short, the Tigers will snuff out a fierce Blues fight late. Instead, we’re treated to a rare intelligent idea from the powers that be – a grand final replay – botched by a predictably bad move, a Wednesday night opener.

It’s arguably the Doggies that have extra incentive here; a team as talented as them simply cannot be letting their grand final humiliation go unanswered. But Melbourne will be unveiling their premiership cup and I’m susceptible to being swept into that euphoria: they’ll win a thriller.

St Kilda on a Friday night might be a head-scratcher, but when they’re on, they’re on – except when they’re not, which is worryingly often. That sentence is probably almost as confusing as the Saints themselves, who’ll play Craig McRae-led Collingwood. Flip a coin, go the injury-hit Saints.

The Cats and Bombers is going to be a test of Geelong’s enduring strength and Essendon’s expectations. I’m going to go against the grain a little and say the Bombers for an upset win. 

There will be no Toby Greene-dominated headlines for the Sydney Derby, but one we might read is “Lance Franklin kicks goal 1000”. In need of five more, Franklin’s accomplishment could be the start of a good season for the Swans, and I personally believe they’ll make the eight again this year. The Giants remain a strong team, but the Swans are easier to back here.

It’s a similar story with Brisbane and Port. Both are frighteningly good teams, but the Lions’ strength at the Gabba is too enticing to go past. 

Sunday’s suite of matches are fascinating for all the wrong reasons. Neither the Hawks – now with Sam Mitchell as coach – nor Kangaroos – with Jason Horne-Francis on hand as the best draftee in the land – are going to be particularly impressive this year, but the former should add a potentially rare four points to their ledger here. 

Freo pulled a Freo in losing Matt Taberner for their clash against Adelaide, but should be winning this one comfortably to ease into a season with massive expectations. What’s round one for if not blind optimism, eh?

Andrew Brayshaw of the Dockers celebrates the win on the final siren

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Speaking of blind optimism, West Coast desperately need some after their wretched pre-season. The Suns will be well aware of this, and will be a significant challenge, but they’ve never beaten the Eagles in Perth, and that’s a record I cannot bring myself to tip against – even with so many Eagles out.  

Multi tip from PlayUp

Leg 1. $1.55 Demons to start the year as they finished

Leg 2. $1.67 Geelong will have a fight on their hands but will be too strong for Essendon

Leg 3. $1.47 Lions power over Port Adelaide

 As always if you’re going to have a punt gamble responsibly.

Round 1TimDemCamLiamCrowd
MEL vs WBMELMELMELMELMEL
CAR vs RCHRCHRCHCARRCHRCH
STK vs COLCOLSTKSTKSTKSTK
GEE vs ESSGEEGEEESSESSGEE
GWS vs SYDSYDSYDGWSSYDSYD
BL vs PABLBLBLBLBL
HAW vs NMHAWNMHAWHAWHAW
ADE vs FREFREFREFREFREFRE
WCE vs GCSGCSGCSGCSWCEWCE

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