Opinion
What an embarrassment of racing riches we’ve got this weekend, with five Group 1s at Rosehill and the All Star Mile at Flemington.
Stars of all ages and sexes are doing battle on the turf over a range of distances and conditions. Let’s get into it.
Golden Slipper
How to dissect the Golden Slipper this year? It has to be the toughest one yet.
More than half the field is coming off a run on the bottomless heavy Sydney tracks that have been produced in recent weeks, a surface that we will not be getting on Saturday.
Four horses are coming up from the Blue Diamond, and each one of them has raced exclusively on good tracks, mostly in Melbourne. Yet we’ll likely be on a soft 5 or 6 this weekend, so they’ll be facing unfamiliar terrain on multiple fronts.
Then you’ve got the Sydney juveniles that have been avoiding the heavy tracks and not running in the last month, so it’s hard to get a line on them. Plus there are a few horses backing up, which is never easy for a two-year-old, and a favourite that hasn’t been seen since the middle of January on the Gold Coast!
Coolangatta is the starting point as the accepted benchmark, and we know the Maher and Eustace stable can work wonders with any horse. Russian Conquest has been the closest to her, but underwhelmed on a heavy last time out. Best of Bordeaux is the only one unbeaten alongside Coolangatta, but the form behind him has been ugly.
(Photo by Olga Gasheva via Unsplash)
Blue Diamond form always stacks up well in the Slipper. Daumier is drawn to get a nice run and has shown his professionalism. Jacquinot is possibly the most talented of all starters, and is clearly good enough if the race is run to suit and backmarkers can make ground at Rosehill.
Sejardan doesn’t do much wrong, and will be finishing hard. Fireburn might be the forgotten each-way chance – she beat She’s Extreme three weeks ago, and that filly came out and won last week. She also defeated Revolutionary Miss when they met in January – that filly has since run second in the Diamond.
Selections: 1.Jacquinot 2.Fireburn 3.Coolangatta 4.Sejardan
George Ryder Stakes
$1,000,000 is on offer for the George Ryder Stakes these days, going up against the All Star Mile at Flemington, and a high quality field has been assembled.
Mo’unga hasn’t won since last August, but has run some mighty races against the best horses around. He’s a genuine Group 1 WFA talent, has enjoyed Rosehill on his forays here, and is the testing material accordingly.
Forbidden Love has been cutting a swathe through the Sydney carnival on the wet tracks, with two dominant wins in a row. She’ll still get some softness in the track here, but it won’t be bottomless, and her opposition rises. She’s in the zone though, and will be in front of Mo’unga.
Private Eye, Dalasan, Kolding and Law of Indices all chased Forbidden Love on the heavy last start, and are all capable of turning the tables if conditions suit. Colette was poor last start in the Chipping Norton, given what she is capable of. She deserves a chance to show she can bounce back.
Hilal has been taking on fellow three-year-olds Anamoe and Converge, stars in their own right, and steps up to open company for the first time. He’s a watch too. Hungry Heart will win a good race at some stage, but she just needs a dry track.
Selections: 1.Mo’unga 2.Forbidden Love 3.Dalasan 4.Hilal
Ranvet Stakes
The Ranvet is the most clear-cut race on the Rosehill card, with champion mare Verry Elleegant appearing to have a Winx-like grip on the event.
Her rivals are thin on the ground, but headed by three-time Group 1 winner Montefilia, who always races in great heart and can provide some sort of contest. Emissary is a lightly raced five-year-old up from Melbourne who should give a good account of himself.
Angel of Truth is hard to catch, and relished the wet to run a placing in the Chipping Norton last start. Entente should be ready to show something third up on better ground. Connections of greybeard Sikandarabad will be hoping to get a fifth-place cheque.
Selections: 1.Verry Elleegant 2.Montefilia 3.Emissary 4.Entente
(Image by Digwen from Pixabay)
The Galaxy
What a classic Group 1 handicap faces us here. There’s legitimately a dozen chances. Track conditions and how it is playing will be key.
Golden Rose winner In The Congo and Expressway winner Overpass are three-year-olds with a lot of weight. Jamaea is a filly dropping 1400 metres back to 1100 metres. I am passing on all of those. Paulele looks the pick of that age group.
At the top of the weights, Splintex and Big Parade have to carry their share, which might be tough. Bella Nipotina does seem well weighted either, but won’t surprise if she gets a cosy run.
The Melbourne form stacked up beautifully in Sydney last weekend, and we can expect that to continue. Away Game ran well in the Oakleigh Plate behind a rising superstar, and always gives a good account. Minhaaj was well fancied there and had no luck, so forgive her. She’s well over the odds. Ballistic Lover has the right form against Minhaaj and is a distance specialist.
Brooklyn Hustle has talent enough to win a Group 1, but is running out of chance. Malkovich and her were a millimetre apart down the Flemington straight last time, so he’s in the race too. He was also in the Oakleigh Plate, running well.
All of these live chances, before we even get to the favourite Isotope. She made her name in Brisbane as a smart three-year-old, but has only run once in the last ten months. It was a win in January over Away Game, which ties her in, but it seems a big ask.
And if first emergency Shelby Sixtysix gets in as first emergency, how can he be discounted? Splitting Eduardo and Nature Strip, then backing it up by winning last week, is as hot as form gets. This will be his sixth run since the start of February.
Selections: 1.Minhaaj 2.Brooklyn Hustle 3.Away Game 4.Isotope
Rosehill Guineas
Only nine horses will load into the gates for the Rosehill Guineas, but four of them have already established their class, in what shapes as one of the most intriguing races of the autumn.
Anamoe is the starting point, as he has been in almost every race he’s contested in the last year or so. He runs oh so well every time he takes to the track, and was excellent in defeat at Randwick three weeks ago. It’s just a matter of whether you want to take even money about him.
Converge got the best of Anamoe in the Randwick Guineas after settling handier in the run than his key rival. He’s putting together an excellent prep and could well win again – if he does, he’ll have claims to be the champion three-year-old of his season.
Profondo his the races for his fifth start, and will be hoping to put his epic failure in the Australian Guineas behind him. It was his first start at Flemington, his first start the Melbourne way of going, and he was posted wide off a hectic speed before fading badly. He’s a raw talent, and we know he loves 2000 metres.
Forgot You isn’t a Group 1 winner like the aforementioned trio, but has run very well in races like the Caulfield and Australian Guineas, as well as a VRC Derby. The jury is out on him a little at this level, but he gets 2000 metres, which is a tick, and showed in the spring that he doesn’t mind the jar out of the track.
Selections: 1.Anamoe 2.Converge 3.Forgot You 4.Profondo
All Star Mile
Victoria’s answer to the Everest is the All Star Mile, and while it hasn’t been the unmitigated success of its counterpart, due to some sloppiness around the selecting of the field, it will always produce a stellar event.
Zaaki is the warm favourite, and is entitled to be as the highest rated and most talented horse in the race. Whether 1600 metres is his absolute best distance is up for debate, and if this race was over 2000 metres, his odds would be skinnier still.
(Photo by Clint Hughes/PA Images via Getty Images)
The widest barrier may make things sticky, but there’s enough speed in the race, and with $5,000,000 on offer it’s unlikely they’ll dawdle. This will enable Zaaki to slot in nicely if the speed is hot, and if there isn’t a great deal of pace he can just take up the running and put the acid to the rest of the field at the half mile.
Inspirational Girl was Zaaki’s conqueror last start in the Blamey, but that felt like her race given the different stages of their preparation and the weight scale. I’m Thunderstruck is a talented four-year-old that is looking for 1600 metres now after two runs at 1400 metres. He’s been just okay, but will love Flemington after those Caulfield runs. The inside barrier isn’t perfect for him.
The three-year-olds create a lot of interest coming out of the Australian Guineas. Captivant was underwhelming there, but if he bounces back to his best he’s worth a place ticket. Lightsaber rode a brutal speed and was still there swinging; he’s tough. Pinstriped was the hard-luck story but is short enough in the market.
There’s a host of other chances for trifectas and first fours, although it’s hard to see them beating all-comers – Tofane is a proper Group 1 mare, Cascadian is a very good Flemington miler at the highest level, Icebath is capable of a blazing run on her day, and Sierra Sue is due to produce her best at a mile.
Selections: 1.Zaaki 2.Inspirational Girl 3.Pinstriped 4.Lightsaber
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