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Opinion
Like so many rugby league fans, the countdown is on until Friday night’s clash between the unbeaten Panthers and the resurgent Rabbitohs.
The grand final rematch has had its tyres pumped up considerably by the South Sydney side emphatically refinding their groove and systematically dismantling the Roosters.
That state of affairs runs headlong into the return of star Penrith halfback Nathan Cleary.
The Cardinal and Myrtle will be hell-bent on exacting some form of revenge on the Panthers and also making their way back into the top eight after a very slow start to the season.
You can bet Cody Walker will be primed for a big game both with the ball in hand as well as through providing his relentless commentary on his opponents’ play and abilities.
Conversely, the Panthers will just be looking to keep their impressive machine rolling along.
So far this season it has been rolling along very well, and it isn’t even properly warmed up yet. To state the bleeding obvious, this Penrith Panthers team is very good.
Very, very good.
They are that good that they may one day soon be spoken of in the same company as the 1980s Eels and Bulldogs, the 1990s Broncos and Raiders, and the Roosters and Storm sides of the 2010s.
Since the first kick-off for season 2020 the Panthers’ record is remarkable: 44 wins, a draw and just six losses, one of which was the 2020 grand final.
That is a winning percentage of 86.3 per cent. That remarkable win rate has occurred during one of the most disrupted periods for the game ever known.
Unlike many other great sides, the main assembly of this side was done through development, not a chequebook.
Of the 2021 premiership side only Api Koroisau, Kurt Capewell, Paul Momirovski, Viliame Kikau and Scott Sorensen did not come through the Panthers system.
Of those, Koroisau was very arguably the only high-profile signing. I’m not sure you could even argue that he was a star recruit.
Now they find themselves as the only side with a perfect record at the conclusion of the first three rounds of 2022. The Panthers should rightly be very happy with their perfect start considering the player pressures they’ve been under.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The premiers saw quite a few of their winning side depart in the off-season, putting their depth to the test. Matt Burton and Brent Naden departed for the Bulldogs. Capewell headed to the Broncos and Momirovski to the Roosters.
To compound this, they’ve been without their star halfback Nathan Cleary for all three of their games so far. They have subsequently lost key forwards Moses Leota, James Fisher Harris and Liam Martin. And you can throw in star winger and kick returner Brian To’o last round as an absentee.
Yet their average game score of 28.7–14 has actually improved from their 25.6–11.6 of 2021, with two of their games so far being played against 2021 finalists.
Into the mix has come Sean O’Sullivan at No. 7. Not only does he bear more than a passing resemblance to Anthony Watmough, but he has proved to be more than a handy halfback. Spencer Leniu, Matt Eisenhuth and Chris Smith stepped up to cover the considerable skill and experience missing up front, while Taylan May and Izack Tago have been incredible attacking weapons in the backline – as well as Super Coach gold.
With only six of their remaining 21 games requiring them to leave Sydney, you’d forgive the Panthers faithful for being very upbeat right now.
To add to all of these positives, six of the 24 NRL premiers to date started their winning seasons by winning their first three games.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
However, as Panthers coaches will know very well – and will be ensuring his charges know too – as much as a strong start can only be seen as a positive thing, it provides absolutely zero promise of success.
An NRL season is a marathon, not a sprint.
The 24 seasons to date of the NRL are littered with teams that made a fast start that failed to translate into premiership glory. Along with the six that went on to win the premiership, there are 36 perfect three-from-three starts that didn’t.
Five of those sides won three from three first up and failed to even make the NRL finals that season.
The 2006 Cowboys had such high hopes after their stellar 2005 season. Their great start fell away and they finished ninth.
The 2011 Bulldogs were positively buoyant after their perfect start and similarly just missed the top eight. The 2014 Dragons looked great for so long until the wheels fell off and they finished 11th.
The 2015 Knights had been the 2014 wooden spooners and thought they’d turned the corner, only to claim a consecutive spoon.
Then of course there was the Storm’s very well deserved spoon in 2010.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The flip side of this stat is that only 12 per cent of the time has a perfect start not resulted in a finals berth.
Eleven of the 36 fast starters made the finals but not the all-important top four, and as we know, no side in the NRL era has won the premiership from outside the Four.
Fourteen sides had great fast starts and made the top four but went out of the finals in straight sets. Two of those sides – the 1999 Sharks and the 2019 Storm – were minor premiers to boot.
As current St George Illawarra Dragons NRLW head coach Jamie Soward said recently, “No-one gets a tattoo for winning the minor premiership”.
Then of course there are the three perfect start sides that made the grand final but tasted ultimate defeat: the 2004 Roosters, the 2012 Bulldogs and the 2016 Storm.
Topping all of these cold hard stats off is the fact that only the Sydney Roosters have managed to win back-to-back premierships in the NRL era.
So while the Panthers will be pleased with their great start to 2022, they’ll be more than a little aware there is an incredibly long way to go.
However, if they keep rolling this well, they will almost certainly be there when the whips are cracking.
And if they do go back to back, then surely the Penrith Panthers must be included as one of the greatest rugby league sides of the modern era.