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Opinion
Like the great king Ozymandias, my hubris proved to be my fall when it comes to AFL tipping.
After going off half-cocked after a Round 1 8, the bottom fell out spectacularly in Round 2 (as it always does) – and as a result, I’m now firmly back at ground level and fighting to earn some respect back.
Look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair.
This week looks relatively more straightforward to predict, and we now have a fortnight of information on each team to figure out where they sit in the pecking order.
So based on that, I think we can safely expect this round to prove the hardest to pick a winner yet!
Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, Brisbane, Carlton, Richmond, Fremantle
So, yeah, last week didn’t go too well for me.
In fairness to myself (and all the other guys that tipped the same), I backed in West Coast before we learned that COVID was going to force them to take on North Melbourne with a glorified WAFL side.
But the precedent was set in Round 1: you can’t change your tips once they’re in. I would have switched to North beating Hawthorn in the opening week once Ben McEvoy and Luke Breust were out, but didn’t change and it turned out the Hawks were the right choice all along. You win some, you lose some.
The hardest game of the round – for me, at least – is Thursday night. The Swans have been in slashing form, and sliced the Bulldogs up last time they met – but with the Dogs desperate to avoid a disastrous 0-3 start, they’ll be more determined than ever to steady the ship. Plus, I can’t help feeling after the emotions and the chaos of last Friday night, Sydney might be due a come-down.
For the Friday night double-header – thanks AFL, I hate it – you surely couldn’t tip against Port Adelaide in the Showdown despite last week’s calamity, while Melbourne are just plain better than Essendon, even with Jake Lever to miss again.
Now that the AFLW grand final has been shunted back a week, the league can’t be thrilled with its only Saturday arvo game being the turnstile-creaking blockbuster between the Suns and the Giants; as much as Gold Coast looked excellent in defeat against the Dees and beat GWS last time they met, I just can’t trust them yet.
As for Saturday night, after a stunning start under Craig McRae, Collingwood face their first major litmus test – they’re every chance of knocking over Geelong, too, but the Cats are still powerful enough to be hugely risky to back against. And if North Melbourne can be pushed at home by the WAFL Eagles, then a trip to Brisbane sans Luke Davies-Uniacke and Tarryn Thomas means a safe ‘Lock of the Week’ gong for the Lions. How’d that work for Port last week, by the way?
Match of the round is, crazily enough, Carlton and Hawthorn at the ‘G on Sunday. Adam Cerra is back for the Blues, whose forward line should be dangerous enough to punish the Hawks for any inside-50 differential like the Power wasted in Round 2.
Maddie’s Match is always great value, and the Saints have regularly risen to the occasion even post-Nick Riewoldt; but the Tigers showed they’re not dead yet last week, and with Jack Riewoldt and Dylan Grimes back, plus the Saints coming off that gruelling trip out west, should salute, even at Damien Hardwick’s least favourite venue.
Finally, we have the Western Derby, which should be a cracker – if by cracker you mean you’ll be left wanting someone to snap your neck instead of watching it. Freo always let me down when I back them in this game, but even with a bevy of Eagles back in the frame, they should be too strong.
Nick Blakey pointing to where the muscles should go. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Sydney, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Geelong, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Richmond, Fremantle
When all else fails, throw logic out the window.
It feels as though that should be the motto for AFL tipping in 2022, with plenty of wild results already only a fortnight into it.
Not many would have thought the Bulldogs would have lost both their first two matches of the season and now they face an opponent that is looking to cement their Premiership credentials.
I think Tim O’Brien would improve this defence significantly, but it’s hard to go past the Swans.
The Demons are the fittest team in the competition and the Bombers tend to fall away, while the Friday night Showdown is appropriately being tucked away as the evening’s second feature.
You’d hate to be a fan of either South Australian team at the moment, but at least the Crows have the excuse of inexperience.
I love the open air for the AFLW finals, before heading into an extremely fun game between GWS and the Suns. I’ll find someone on the street to play a game of “scissors, paper, rock” to help me tip it.
Man, the Magpies have been great and Brayden Maynard’s suspension is up. Surely though, the embarrassment of Geelong should motivate them to beat a lowly-rated team.
Brisbane should beat North Melbourne by a billion points if the Kangaroos don’t fix up their style. Even with injuries to Davies-Uniacke and Thomas, all I need to see is more confidence and meaningful ball movement. The margin doesn’t bother me if it’s played in the right way.
Both the Blues and Hawks have a lot to prove this week, with all the expectation rightfully on Carlton. I think many are underestimating Hawthorn and their defensive work and ability to stretch the opposition through clean kicking matches the opposition well.
I won’t get sucked in by the Saints’ win over an inefficient Fremantle, despite this match being at Marvel. Similarly, while plenty of credit goes to the Eagles for how they’re managing to stay competitive at the moment, Fremantle simply must win the Western Derby if they’re serious about finals, or indeed themselves.
(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Sydney, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, Brisbane, Carlton, Richmond, Fremantle
We’ve had a couple of great Thursday night games to start the season, and this week looks like continuing that trend.
There’s a fair bit to unpack between the Western Bulldogs and Sydney too – are the Dogs off their game or have they just run into hot opposition in Melbourne and Carlton? Will the Swans suffer a psychological let-down after the surreal scenes at the SCG for Buddy’s 1000th last week?
I’m going to plump with winning form over losing form here, and stick with Sydney.
Melbourne should handle Essendon without much fuss – the Bombers were handed the toughest opening three weeks of anyone, and look like going 0-3 accordingly.
Port just have to bounce back against Adelaide… don’t they? Don’t they? Show Ken Hinkley the door if they can’t get it done. Brilliant scheduling by the AFL, having two games on Friday night too.
GWS are also due a response after a poor showing, and should get their first win of the year against Gold Coast.
The Suns played well against Melbourne last week though, and won’t be a pushover by any stretch.
Can the Pies keep their streak going against Geelong? I’m expecting the Cats to be able to shut them down. Up north, Brisbane will be beating the Kangaroos.
On Sunday, Carlton can keep their hot start to the season going against Hawthorn, but hasn’t that become a game all of a sudden!
Richmond produced something like what we expect against GWS, and if they keep that going should be beating St Kilda.
Fremantle are not a good team, but might still be better than a disjointed West Coast, who perhaps need a week of continuity before posting their first win of the season
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Sydney, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, Brisbane, Carlton, Richmond, Fremantle
Round 2 was a tad unusual. Buddy kicking 1000, Carlton apparently finally arriving, Freo flopping in a Sunday twilight clash.
Well, at least one of those is normal.
It’s probably easier to run through some of the more straightforward prospective results first – not that there are many.
North simply fulfilled a commitment rather than impressing in winning against a WAFL side last week, so I’ll peg them as little chance against Brisbane at the Gabba; Melbourne seem a little scratchy but I still have little confidence in tipping the Dons against anyone at the moment; and Richmond should be able to go 2-1 against an inconsistent St Kilda.
The rest are hard. The team that made last weekend so damn enjoyable was Sydney, and they’re up against a disappointing Dogs outfit tonight.
Luke Beveridge’s side missed chance after chance after chance in the final term last week, contributing to a loss that from some perspectives can be excused given how good the Blues are; but leaves far too much risk in tipping them over a red-hot Swans outfit.
Friday night’s showdown is sure to be… well, I’m not actually sure what it’ll turn out to be.
Port were a bizarre kind of horrendous against the Hawks – statistically strong yet flat across the ground – while the Crows were middling in their loss to the Pies.
The Power’s record in Showdowns of late is very good, so expect them to go 1-2 with a win here (though also expect Ken Hinkley to remain very uncomfortable at the helm even if they do).
The Suns were strong despite going down to the Demons last weekend – certainly more than you can say for GWS, who blew a golden chance against the Tigers.
The competition’s second-youngest team prevailed against the youngest the last time these two met, but the Giants should bounce back at home.
As for a team bouncing back away from home, however good the Magpies have been in the last fortnight, my gut is telling me the Cats will earn their second win of the season.
The Blues hosting Hawthorn is the best match-up of the weekend, bar none. Hawthorn have surpassed early expectations; the Blues arguably finally meeting theirs.
It’s a case of anything you can do, I can do better: Hawthorn’s tall forwards dominated last week, though Blues duo Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow are properly emerging; the Hawks have two solids wins under their belt, but the Blues have stronger wins.
Part of me is thinking the Hawks are an underrated tip here, but adding Cerra back into the side swings me to the Blues.
Patrick Cripps of the Blues celebrates his team’s win on the final siren during the round two AFL match between the Western Bulldogs and the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium on March 24, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor / Getty Images)
The Western Derby finishes the week, and I can scarcely contain my exciteme- nah, it’s just pure fear.
The Eagles are stronger than they look, but Freo simply must win the game to have a sense of legitimacy. I’ll back the Dockers, but say nothing else under fear of raising expectations.
| Round 2 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WB vs SYD | WB | SYD | SYD | SYD | WB |
| MEL vs ESS | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| ADE vs PA | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| GWS vs GCS | GWS | GCS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| COL vs GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| BL vs NM | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| CAR vs HAW | CAR | HAW | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| STK vs RCH | RCH | RCH | RCH | RCH | RCH |
| WCE vs FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| ROLLING SCORE | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Multi tip from PlayUp:
Leg 1. $1.90 – Sydney Swans +1.5
Leg 2. $1.80 – Hawthorn Hawks +11.5
Leg 3. $1.80 – St Kilda +2.5
Good luck this weekend. Be sure to check out the great odds and the new same game Multi-feature at PlayUp. Please gamble responsibly.
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