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Opinion

Four tiers in one season: The NRL drawn and quartered

6th April, 2022
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6th April, 2022
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It is a pretty sobering thought for 12 of the 16 NRL teams that in 65 per cent of the 24 National Rugby League seasons to date the eventual premier was in the top four at the conclusion of the first four rounds.

Conversely the Panthers, Storm, Eels and Sharks will find that statistic quite good.

After four rounds the teams have sorted themselves into four clear groupings: The contenders, the challengers, the also-rans, and the strugglers.

It is time to dissect which teams are in which grouping.

As the 2015 North Queensland Cowboys and the 2014 South Sydney Rabbitohs have demonstrated, a rocky start to the season doesn’t necessarily write off your chances. Conversely, the 2017 Dragons and the 2015 Knights showed us that an excellent start doesn’t guarantee you a place in the finals.

But I think the top four would be liking the 65 per cent stat, nonetheless.

For the teams in each grouping things can both improve and they can get worse. The current paradigm could change markedly if – and when – they do.

The contenders

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Penrith Panthers

If most sides lost players of the calibre of Matt Burton, Kurt Capewell, Brent Naden and Paul Momirovski in the off-season, and then had that compounded by injuries to the likes of Nathan Cleary, Brian To’o and Moses Leota they would rightly be struggling to be competitive. The Panthers are flying with a perfect start, revealing new stars in Taylan May and Izack Tago, and seeing the likes of Spencer Leniu and Matt Eisenhuth step up effectively. 

Things are looking very good.

What could go wrong

If players could stop getting injured it wouldn’t hurt. While the Panthers’ depth is impressive, there are limits to everything.

Nathan Cleary passes the ball

Nathan Cleary (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

What could go right

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If this side stays fit and the form stays consistent I can not see them missing the top four, with back-to-back premierships a real possibility.

Melbourne Storm

The only blemish to the Storm’s season so far is the golden point loss to the Eels in Round 3. Arguably the best match of the season to date, there is zero cause to panic for Melbourne. As we’ve grown to expect from Craig Bellamy’s purple horde, they are determined and regimented in defence, and structured and dynamic in attack. Fully expect them to be there when the whips are cracking. Again…

What could go wrong

Injuries to key players could cause issues. Losing the likes of Ryan Papenhuyzen, Jahrome Hughes, Harry Grant, Brandon Smith or Jesse Bromwich could damage them badly, having already lost prop Christian Welch for the season.

What could go right

The side just keeps rolling as they are and Craig Bellamy’s amazing ability to turn meat and potatoes players into brilliant contributors continues unabated into a third decade.

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Parramatta Eels

The Eels find themselves with just the narrow loss against the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks in Round 2 as their only defeat. While their win over the Gold Coast Titans in Round 1 cast distinct questions over their defence, their golden point win over the Storm in Round 3 definitely showed that the Eels are the real deal in 2022. Their dismantling of the St George Illawarra Dragons just further underlined that truth.

What could go wrong

As with the two other contenders, injury could derail the Eels campaign. Their success is highly dependent on the form and presence of their spine players Reed Mahoney, Mitchell Moses, the increasingly impressive Dylan Brown and Clint Gutherson at the back. They can’t afford to have too many games without all of those players on deck if they want to break their 36-year drought.

What could go right

They stay fit, keep building form and belief and win the all-important tight ones that they’ve had a habit of losing in the last five years.

The challengers

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Cronulla Sharks

In the pre-season there was a lot of buzz around a Sharks side that had been renewed with the commencement of Craig Fitzgibbon as coach, as well as the big signings of Nicho Hynes and Dale Finucane. That buzz has been well justified. The Sharks only loss has been to a last-gasp try by the Raiders in Round 1. Their three wins include knocking off the Eels. The side from the Shire – now back in the Shire too – look like they are building very well.

What could go wrong

If either Finucane or Hynes miss games the Sharks may struggle. As well, their depth in the outside backs – as demonstrated by Siosifa Talakai playing in the centres against the Dragons – may prove a point of weakness in advancing genuine premiership winning credentials.

What could go right

If Matt Moylan continues to refind his best form and Will Kennedy and Blayke Brailey continue to blossom into the outstanding spine players they appear to be capable of becoming then this Sharks side could actually go all the way this year.

Sydney Roosters

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While the Tri-Colours haven’t had the greatest start to the season – featuring comprehensive losses to the Knights and the Rabbitohs – the squad just has too much talent to not be seen as a genuine challenger. When they’ve got going, as they did in their wins over the Sea Eagles and the Cowboys, they are a very good side and more than capable of knocking off anyone.

What could go wrong

Their forward pack depth gets tested and doesn’t pass the blowtorch on the belly test.

What could go right

If the Luke Keary-Sam Walker combination really clicks into a lethal top gear, and Victor Radley gets his consistent A-game going again, the Roosters can – and will – beat any opponent.

Sam Walker of the Roosters warms up.

Can Sam Walker help the Roosters to a premiership in 2022? (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

South Sydney Rabbitohs

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Yes, I know what you’re going to say: “Why do you think the Rabbitohs are challengers when they are sitting in 13th spot and have only won a single game?”

Well, because one of those losses was without Latrell Mitchell, another was a single-point loss against the Storm, and the third was to the Panthers. Everyone is going to do it tough against the Panthers. The cardinal and myrtle’s strong victory over the Roosters in Round 3 really showed what this side is capable of. I’m guessing we’ll see more of that Rabbitohs side going forward.

What could go wrong

Apart from the obvious injury risk that all sides face, Souths are relying heavily on Lachlan Ilias and Blake Taaffe to work out well. While Ilias can’t be expected to step up and replace Adam Reynolds like for like immediately, they need him to be able to hold his own at the top level. If he doesn’t the Rabbitohs may find it very hard to win the big games.

What could go right

Ilias does hold his own, Cody Walker steps up to lead South Sydney forward seamlessly, and Cam Murray continues on his superstar trajectory with the rest of the team following their leads with vigour.

Newcastle Knights

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Anyone who watched the Knights suffocation of the Roosters in Round 1 knew that the side was on the up. They won their first two games by a combined score of 46-10 and they were looking really good. Mitchell Barnett’s raised elbow into the head of Panther Chris Smith saw him sent off and lost the Knights any chance of rolling the premiers.

Last start they had a poor outing against the Sharks in the Shire. However, they’ve showed that they are a side capable of putting in excellent performances that are good enough to test the best sides.

What could go wrong

Kalyn Ponga fails to play the kind of starring role the Novocastrians really need from him if they are to achieve the top echelons.

What could go right

Ponga does set the world on fire and he is ably supported by the skill and experience of Daniel Saifiti, Tyson Frizell and Dane Gagai who together take the Knights deep into September.

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Manly Sea Eagles

The lads from Brookvale got off to a zero from two start, losing to the Panthers and then the Roosters. They’ve subsequently bounced back with two consecutive wins. While there are certainly some distinct chinks in their armour, the Manly side has a fair bit of undoubted match winning cattle.

What could go wrong

The NRL officials could actually speed up the ruck and rob Des Hasler of his favourite tactic of having his tacklers slow down their opponents play the balls to glacial speeds. As well, everyone knows that any real chance the Sea Eagles have to go deep into the finals rests very heavily on Tom Trbojevic’s hamstrings. If they remain good then Manly will almost certain win more than they lose.

Tom Trbojevic of the Sea Eagles

(Photo by Getty Images)

What could go right

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The Sea Eagles’ pack made up of inexperience, journeymen and old stagers bonds together to punch well above their apparent weight, giving the Sea Eagles backline the space they need to do their considerable thing. And, of course, the NRL let the play the ball be incredibly slow.

The also-rans

Gold Coast Titans

The Titans find themselves just outside the eight on points differential, having won as many as they’ve lost. While they’ve surely shown some fantastic ability in attack, their defence has conceded 80 points in four games, with their surrendering of a 22-point lead to the Raiders really showing a soft underbelly.

What could go wrong

Those defensive issues continue and the losses keep coming.

What could go right

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Tino Fa’asuamaleaui continues to be the awesome player and leader that he is demonstrating himself to be. The Titans defence stiffens up and David Fifita becomes the consistent star that his team is desperate for him to be. Toby Sexton is as good as he looks, and AJ Brimson and Jayden Campbell’s seasons really hit the afterburners in regard to electric attack.

Canberra Raiders

The Raiders’ season was just seven minutes old when they lost their hooker for the year. This compounded losing their up-and-coming centre in Harley Smith-Shields for the season and their new halfback – Jamal Fogarty – for over half of it. They’ve managed a last-gasp win against the Sharks and a massive comeback against the Titans in the plus column, but looked awful in losing to the Cowboys and the Sea Eagles.

What could go wrong

Things carry on as they are. Their forward pack puts in insipid displays and the backs keep dropping the ball.

What could go right

The Raiders stop getting injuries, hold the football and the forward pack actually displays some intent with ball in hand.

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North Queensland Cowboys

The Cowboys have clearly improved greatly in the offseason and their present spot in the top eight is testament to that. However, while their emphatic wins against the Raiders and the Broncos should fill their fans with heart, their narrow loss to the Bulldogs and their flogging at the hands of the Roosters show they still have a long way to go.

What could go wrong

The inexperience and skills deficit of the squad is not able to be bridged by coach Todd Payten and their results and heart fall away.

What could go right

Payten manages to get the old heads in Jason Taumololo, Chad Townsend, Valentine Holmes, Jake Granville and Jordan McLean to lead the rising stars in Jeremiah Nanai, Tom Gilbert and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow into the battles with real positivity and belief. If that happens I reckon they could possibly make the eight.

The strugglers

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New Zealand Warriors

I feel bad putting the Warriors in the strugglers list but they’ve only managed to unconvincingly beat the Wests Tigers and made heavy work of beating a hapless Broncos side. They have the talent to win games against decent opposition but there just seems to be too much of a gulf between their squad and the challengers and contenders.

What could go wrong

Another year based away from home just continues to weaken this team and make it harder and harder for them to keep giving their best.

What could go right

Addin Fonua-Blake, Shaun Johnson, Reece Walsh and Josh Curran all play to their best and really inspire their teammates to greater things.

Brisbane Broncos

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Anyone who watched the Broncos efforts against the Cowboys and then the Warriors would say that they were at incredibly long odds to dodge the bottom four, let alone make the finals. While Payne Haas and Adam Reynolds are well-credentialed stars, the rest of the team just looks ordinary. This side is a long-term work in progress.

What could go wrong

The worst thing that could happen is if either – or both – Haas or Reynolds get injured.

What could go right

Reynolds somehow manages to bond this mob together, stick to a game plan, make their tackles and hold the ball. Oh, and Kotoni Staggs starts showing some form.

Canterbury Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have spent up big in the player market, buying Matt Burton, Josh Addo-Carr, Tevita Pangai Junior, Paul Vaughn, Brent Naden and Matt Dufty in the off season. It has yet to gel. Their first-up win against the Cowboys is their only joy, with their last outing being a smashing at the hands of the Storm really putting their current status in perspective.

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What could go wrong

The results keep being bad, unrest and infighting sets in and the Bulldogs get another bottom-four finish.

What could go right

The side could settle and gel as a unit. The results could start to improve and maybe – just maybe – they could jag a finals spot.

Matt Burton of the Bulldogs

(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

St George Illawarra Dragons

The oldest squad in the league this year, the Dragons only have a first-up win against the Warriors to show for their efforts. In their defence, their other three matches have been losses to the Panthers, Sharks and Eels – who absolutely flogged them last start. They’ve now conceded 120 points this year at 30 per match. It doesn’t look great.

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What could go wrong

The results keep going the same way and the Dragons find themselves battling to avoid the wooden spoon, and every other bit of intrigue that goes along with that experience.

What could go right

All of those old heads start playing some good footy and the likes of Zac Lomax and Tyrell Sloan ride off the back of it and provide some stellar attack.

Wests Tigers

You’ve got to feel sorry for Michael Maguire. Hell, you’ve got to feel sorry for anyone who tries to coach the Wests Tigers. You are on a hiding to nothing.

If you get good players they almost always get poached. Those who remain have to try and do their best with lesser cattle, and then get blamed for it all when they aren’t able to make silk purses out of sows ears. I can’t remember the last time they made the finals. 2011?

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Who’d even blame the besieged coach if he walked away after four first up losses – in which the calibre of football played was excrable. It’s going to be a long season indeed.

What could go wrong

What hasn’t? Player injuries. Last-gasp losses. Floggings. Talk of Immanent Coach departure.

What could go right

Adam Douehi, Daine Laurie, Luke Brooks, James Tamou, Luciano Leilua, Alex Twal and Joe Ofahengaue are all actually pretty damn good players. If they could just get some luck. If the referees could just loosen the grip of confirmation bias on their decision making occasionally so the black and gold could get the rub of the green. If they could just get some luck maybe they could get something rolling… maybe they could.

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