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Opinion
In the spirit of the Grand Prix, which arrives in Melbourne this weekend, I’ve taken advantage of pole position after qualifying with a great start out of the blocks.
However, it’s one thing to be leading at lap 1, and quite another thing to be the first past the chequered flag at the finish.
This week throws up some great options to get back into the season if you’ve had a rough couple of weeks – there are smokies everywhere. Pick the right one, and suddenly, things are looking far rosier: go wrong, as Dem did last week when he was the only one to pick Hawthorn to knock over Carlton, and things can turn sour fast.
Who’s your season-reviving outside chance this week – or are you looking to consolidate a lead by playing it safe? Let’s get into it.
Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Essendon, St Kilda, Carlton
You know it’s been a wacky start to the season when Port Adelaide taking on Melbourne in Adelaide to open the round is considered the EASY tip for the week.
I genuinely reckon there are five line-ball games in Round 4, which could swing either way. Let’s get to those at the end and focus on the easy ones for now.
Starting us off, the Dees should be too strong for a Power side low on confidence – though I can’t shake the feeling Melbourne are due a loss at some point, they smashed Port in Adelaide last year and you’d be brave to go against them repeating the dose.
Last week’s two most abject performers, though one more excusable than the other, were North Melbourne and West Coast, and I can’t see either of them doing much damage on the road against finals contenders Sydney and Collingwood respectively. The same goes for Carlton’s trip north to face Gold Coast to end the round – the Suns were decent at home against the Dees in Round 2, but a Blues side high on confidence have the midfield might to get the job done.
Lock of the week? We’ll go against the Kangaroos again, as punishment for making me endure the last 30 minutes of their game against Brisbane.
Now, for the toughies. Geelong in Geelong is always a fool’s errand to tip against – but Brisbane are looking in ripping nick, and got over their recent Cats hoodoo with a big win late last year. They’d have toppled them at the Cattery too if not for a blatant missed holding the ball in the last seconds, and with no Joel Selwood, the Lions should be too strong.
Richmond and the Western Bulldogs is an interesting one – the Dogs are warm favourites, but I can’t shake the recollection of what a Dustin Martin-less Tigers did to a much more in-form group early last year.
Tom Lynch looms large up forward, especially with Noah Balta and (probably) Jack Riewoldt making it a three-headed monster; but I can’t tip against my own team unless it’s an obvious mismatch, and after overpowering a much more impressive Sydney midfield last week, the Tigers’ ragtag band will struggle to contain the Dogs’ on-ball brigade.
I’ve gone for home ground advantage to get the job done for Fremantle against GWS and Essendon over Adelaide, but I’m not sold on either of them as out and out good teams in 2022. The Dockers smashed the undermanned Eagles last week, but after failing their first big test at home against St Kilda in Round 2, matches against fellow mid-table teams on their own turf are non-negotiables where finals are concerned.
The Bombers have looked okay in patches against Brisbane and Melbourne, but only my desire to hold my tipping lead has me backing them in – the Crows have key forward stocks, especially with Taylor Walker back, to trouble an undersized Bombers defence that let Sam Weideman run amok.
Wrapping us up is the hardest, and in my view best, game of the round. I’ve loved everything Hawthorn have done so far this year as a popular pre-season wooden spoon pick, but am nervous about just how long their ability to hold teams at bay despite getting pummelled in the midfield will last.
The Saints are probably one more good win away from being ‘back’, and I’ve been made to pay for tipping against them twice in a row in terrific wins over Fremantle and Brisbane, so I’ve jumped on the Max King bandwagon here. Either way, that match should be a cracker.
Max King. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Essendon, Hawthorn, Gold Coast
Who knows?
I wanted to leave this week’s tipping write-up with those two words, but apparently there is still a requirement to go through each game. Hawthorn getting up last week over Carlton would’ve been a perfect tip to get back in the race; but as it stands, I’m a stroke behind the leaders and needing a birdie on hole 4.
Anyway, Port’s no good and I’ll tip Melbourne again, but am completely aware of the possibility the Power could show up in 2022 at any stage.
The fixturing has worked a treat to give us a really great Friday night clash. You know, the Lions were undefeated from their first five games at GMHBA stadium and looked unstoppable at the venue in 2003. They haven’t won there since, now owning a 5-12 record at the venue.
I think the streak finally breaks, with Darcy Fort to dominate against his former team as the Lions’ number one ruckman for the night.
Sydney should beat North Melbourne by a billion to bring us back down to earth after an excellent AFLW Grand Final in the afternoon.
If you’re wondering where my alternative, illogical, out-of-the-blue tip is coming from this week, it’s the Eagles to be Collingwood. They’ve had most of their squad back on the park training, and those players will want to prove something against the exciting Magpies.
I’m yet to get a Richmond game right this season so I’ll tip the Bulldogs. Forever being bullish on the boys in purple means that home ground advantage sneaks Fremantle over the line in my head against the Giants.
Again, Sunday looks like where the best group fixturing is at for fans of the game.
Essendon and Adelaide should be high-scoring, even if it means the Bombers are the ones that do most of it. I think there might be a little release of the pressure valve for the Crows after the incredible Showdown result in Round 3.
The Saints have a great record with Paddy Ryder in the team, but I love the way Hawthorn are playing under Sam Mitchell. This feels like a genuine coin flip, if it was 2007 and we all still had loose change in our pockets.
Finally, we finish with what should be a really good contest, despite how the Suns played last week.
Carlton hasn’t faced a team as proficient in contested situations as themselves yet, so this will be a strong challenge. I want to tip Gold Coast, but feel like two against-the-grain tips is too try-hard.
Actually stuff it, I’m not catching the leaders playing it safe. Suns to win.
Touk Miller of the Suns runs the ball during the AFL AAMI Community Series match between the Gold Coast Suns and the Geelong Cats. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Sydney, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, GWS, Essendon, Hawthorn, Carlton
What an epic round of games we have this week, almost all of them intriguing in some way.
I reckon Port can spring a surprise and topple the Demons. Melbourne have been doing just enough to get over the line in their wins so far, and will drop three or four games this season – it’s a treacherous exercise to pick when those will be, but the recipe is there.
Port are an emotional team, and will be ferocious given they are facing a 0-4 start, and peaking for a tilt at the reigning premier is an easy sell for Ken Hinkley.
Brisbane may have been flattered by an easy draw so far, but they’ll be full of confidence to tackle Geelong at the Cattery. Remember back to this time last year when they should have won at this ground if not for an incompetent umpiring decision in the final moments. Match of the round for mine.
Sydney will obviously account for North, but most teams coming off a 100-point loss do respond in some way. West Coast have had no continuity at all, and I can’t see them getting a win until they get some. Collingwood for me there, after being stung last week by Geelong’s comeback.
Saturday night, and fully expecting the Dogs to start gathering some momentum against a Richmond outfit that has lost the will to compete for four quarters. I need more convincing about Freo, and while I don’t particularly rate GWS either, I do trust them more. I’m going with the Giants here.
Essendon haven’t been too bad in the last couple of weeks, and are due their first win. They’ll surely get it against the plucky Crows at Marvel, even with Ben Rutten the latest COVID casualty. If not, that will be, um, not good.
The hardest match of the round to tip is Hawthorn vs St Kilda. We keep waiting for the Hawks’ run to end, but they well and truly outplayed Carlton for two and a half quarters last week, and the Blues look on track for a high finish.
Why can’t Hawthorn keep it going? It’s hard to get their demolition of Port out of the mind. St Kilda have found their way to two wins in come-from-behind fashion, but haven’t yet shown they’re a four-quarter team. Hawks for me.
Carlton should have too much depth and firepower for the Suns, even at Metricon, but they’d still want to bring their A-game. It should be an entertaining game either way.
Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, GWS Giants, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Carlton
It appears I had confidence in the wrong places last week, as a few 50/50 tips – hi, Sydney – fell flat; and some teams – hi, Port Adelaide – simply imploding.
The fourth round is here, and it’s arguably make-or-break for a couple of teams on the verge of continuing winless streaks, while three clubs who haven’t done anything but win have the pressure of not blowing a chance to go 4-0.
We’ll start with Carlton, the most surprising of the undefeated teams. The Bluebaggers travel north for the game I have the second-most confidence in tipping, with the false-dawning Suns’ horrible performance last week not boding well against a Blues team riding very, very high.
(As for the game I’m most confident about tipping, it’s Sydney over North, simples. *Meerkat noise*).
Additional headlines you’ll see come Monday include ‘the Eagles get some manpower back yet fall in close one to Magpies’ and ‘Essendon’s opening weeks move from bad to worse after loss to Crows’; though my confidence level in any of those four teams is so low that predicting any result remains worryingly difficult.
Thursday night’s marquee clash features Port hosting Melbourne. Marquee or not, this one is perversely entertaining as Port flounders: they’re yet to win but desperately needing to.
Unfortunately for Ken Hinkley, the reigning premiers seem to have only just eased into their season, and will savour a chance at a big win here – a chance they’ll take.
Speaking of chances taken, the Cats really took theirs to escape from the clutch of a loss last week. Brisbane are their next opponent, and history suggests this’ll be a fun game. A 3-0 start is persuasive, so I’ll tip Brisbane… but remain entirely convinced Geelong can win this.
Richmond were horrendous in their final term last week, and there’s genuine question marks over this team right now; expect the Doggies to power to a moderate, probably unflashy win on Saturday night.
Shane Edwards and Jack Graham (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
At the same time a few channels over, Freo – possibly with added firepower – is theoretically strong enough to beat the Giants. But a horrendous gut feel – last week’s optimism is this week’s downfall, as per the Freo fan bylaws – has me backing the visitors. Call it intuition.
Hawthorn – so, so good for much of the early season – and the Saints – very good last week – do battle on Sunday. This is an under-the-radar thriller, and one that I’m having trouble splitting. I’ll back the Hawks – I just suspect they’ll be a smidgen too strong.
| Round 4 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA vs MEL | MEL | MEL | PA | MEL | MEL |
| GEE vs BL | BL | BL | BL | BL | GEE |
| SYD vs NM | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| COL vs WCE | COL | WCE | COL | COL | COL |
| RCH vs WB | WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| FRE vs GWS | FRE | FRE | GWS | GWS | FRE |
| ESS vs ADE | ESS | ESS | ESS | ADE | ESS |
| HAW vs STK | STK | HAW | HAW | HAW | STK |
| GCS vs CAR | CAR | GCS | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| ROLLING SCORE | 19 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 18 |
Multi tip from PlayUp:
A 4-leg multi this week with the heavily backed favourites getting us above the $4 mark if they all manage to win.
Leg 1. Geelong H2H @ $1.75
Leg 2. Collingwood H2H @ $1.23
Leg 3. Essendon H2H @ $1.45
Leg 4. Carlton H2H @ $1.53
Total – $4.78
Good luck this weekend. Be sure to check out the great odds and the new same game Multi-feature at PlayUp. Please gamble responsibly.
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