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You’d think someone ranked second overall in SuperCoach this year would be having a better time of it as far as tipping goes. *end humblebrag*
While I’m still on top, tied with you smarties in The Crowd, of our little tipping competition here, the gap’s been brought down substantially after a dominant round from Liam Salter.
Liam was within a Taylor Walker five-goal haul of the year’s first perfect 9, which would have been the most death-defying glorious run since the final minutes of the film 1917 (on-the-nose reference to wartime during ANZAC Round: check) – and suddenly his chances of claiming the prize at the end of the year look back on track.
But can he back it up this ANZAC weekend? Let’s find out.
St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Collingwood
I’ve just got the sense this is going to be one of those annoying rounds we always get at this point of the year – where you make your selections with reasonable confidence, and then end the round staring at a 3 and wondering just what went wrong.
Pretty much every game of the round has some semblance of doubt in it – so, like I always do when faced with a pressure cooker, I’m wimping out and basically just sticking with the favourites. Here goes nothing!
GWS, with Toby Greene back in the fray, are a big chance of a vital win at their home away from home in Canberra, but I like the Saints’ form line too much to not side with them here. Similarly, the Bulldogs have turned Ballarat into a fortress in recent years, last losing there in 2018, and a Rory Sloane-less Adelaide could struggle to have the same accuracy in front of goal at the windy Mars Stadium as they did at home against Richmond.
Home ground advantage has me favouring Port Adelaide to pip the Eagles in a battle of the year’s two most dismal sides to date – surely the Power are going to have to break their winless drought at some point. Then later on Saturday, Fremantle’s clash with Carlton looms as the match of the round, and despite some COVID issues hitting the Dockers, you’d have to back the red-hot men in purple to continue their winning ways.
Onto the Sunday triple-header, and top-four contenders Geelong, Brisbane and Melbourne should all safely account for a trio of opponents in North Melbourne, Gold Coast and Richmond who, well, aren’t. If anyone’s going to spring an upset, it might be the Suns – but having not won a QClash in four years, you just couldn’t back them with any confidence.
On to ANZAC Day itself, and for starters, no Mitch Lewis should be a big enough blow to Hawthorn to allow Sydney to storm ‘fortress Aurora’ down in Tassie (yes, I know it’s now UTAS Stadium) and get a handy four points in a really exciting clash. As for the main event, the only reason I’m tipping Collingwood is because ever since 2005, Essendon have only won on the day every fourth year. 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021… so rest easy, Pies fans.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
GWS, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Essendon
Tipping is a slippery slope and I’ve never been to the snow.
Last week would be the equivalent of rocking up in a t-shirt and getting frostbite. Let’s see if I can thaw out this week.
It’s all about being decisive, so let’s get stuck in.
GWS will definitely beat St Kilda. Their season is on the line and they’ve not been that bad overall. Toby Greene straightens them up in the forward line, to boot.
The Bulldogs will definitely beat Adelaide. The Crows have been decent, but they’ve never been close to winning in Mars. Don’t think the atmosphere is friendly to birds anyway (bu dum tish).
Port Adelaide will definitely beat West Coast. I’m not as concerned about Port’s defence here, as the Eagles don’t have a monstrous offensive presence. Hopefully Ollie Wines is feeling better.
Fremantle will definitely beat Carlton. I think the Dockers are a more legitimate threat than the Blues, but both seem destined for finals. This looms as a really fun contest.
Geelong will definitely beat North Melbourne. It mightn’t be the desired result, but it’s hard to see the Cats losing two in a row to last year’s bottom few teams.
Brisbane will definitely beat Gold Coast. I love the Q-Clash – it might rival El Clásico in terms of the greatest sporting rivalries in the world – and we are the beneficiaries of it. Expect this to be the best game of the weekend, played between the two most direct teams in the league.
Melbourne will definitely beat Richmond. I think. I’m 0-5 in Tigers’ games.
Sydney will definitely beat Hawthorn. While Tasmania tends to be a bit of a fortress for the Hawks, people are completely underestimating how good these Swans are… with still room for improvement from their veterans. It’s been all about the youth.
Essendon will definitely beat Collingwood. ANZAC Day is always one of the better fixtures on the calendar and will be played in perfect conditions. If the Bombers don’t turn up and win after being lambasted in the media, they’ll deserve what’s to come after.
Finally, I will definitely get at least one tip right this week. That’s a streak I’m confident can’t be jinxed.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
GWS, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Collingwood
A few toughies this week, kicking off with Friday night. I feel like this might be one of these games where St Kilda are due for a loss and GWS are due for a win, which might spring a reversal in form.
If Toby Greene is the talisman we all think he is, will his return spark something in the Giants? Let’s say yes.
The first two games on Saturday look clean cut – the Bulldogs will beat Adelaide in Ballarat and Port will get their first win of the year against a hapless West Coast to ease some of the pressure on Ken Hinkley.
Saturday night in Perth wins ‘match of the round’ status between Fremantle and Carlton. The Dockers still haven’t beaten anything, and finally face some kind of test, although the Blues are struggling to see out four quarters.
I’m going with Carlton to be too powerful in the midfield and too potent up forward.
Sunday sees three short-priced favourites, and they should run the clean sweep – Geelong, Brisbane and Melbourne to defeat North, Gold Coast and Richmond respectively, and I’m not expecting any hiccups along the way.
ANZAC Day itself gives us two matches. Hawthorn are the biggest surprise packets of the season, playing very watchable football. I will still back Sydney to have too much class for them down in Tasmania, though.
Can Collingwood and Essendon deliver another April 25 classic? The Pies are playing with confidence and belief right now, so will go with them while giving the Bombers a big chance of a turnaround.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Collingwood
I only have Richmond’s unexpected loss to blame for me not getting a 9/9 last week, but my all-but-one scorecard is something I’ll take in a heartbeat – and puts me back on track after a few weeks of wayward tipping.
Speaking of wayward, the Giants have defined that term as we enter Round 6. One win from five, one not-so-small mercy for the club is the return of Toby Greene for tomorrow night’s game against St Kilda. Greene’s return in itself is huge for the club but the Saints are ticking all the boxes and should go five from six.
The Dogs and Crows play in Ballarat a day later, and as much as the Crows have been punching above their weight this season, the Ballarat factor (where the Dogs are typically just so strong, especially against Adelaide) negates most others here. Dogs to win.
No point reiterating Port’s start to the season (spoiler alert: it’s bad) but if they can’t get a win at home, against the struggling Eagles, then Ken Hinkley’s job is in proper strife – ‘breaking news on Monday morning’ kinda strife.
Part of me is morbidly curious to see what this city will be like if they lost, but all things being equal, they’re significantly stronger than West Coast and should – finally – win.
It’s well known my anxiety around Freo is permanently sky high, but Carlton uniquely frightens me. The Blues have an uncanny ability to snatch wins against the Dockers at home or away, but this battle of a great first-half side versus a great second-half side is genuinely hard to pick, so bias be damned: I’m going to back my own team and pre-emptively begin panicking.
For once, Sunday’s clashes are fairly straightforward and don’t need a lot of explanation. Geelong, especially off the back of a loss, should beat the Kangaroos, while the Lions will beat the Suns to extend their QClash dominance to seven straight wins (a Suns win is my smokey of the week though).
The Tigers can have their moments, but Melbourne are just so insanely strong right now I’d struggle to find a team to confidently tip to best them.
Move over, traditional ANZAC Day clash, because there’s an arguably more delectable game to be played before you. The Hawks were my surprise correct tip last week (zero logic, all fluke) and I’d genuinely rate them as a good chance to sneak a win against the Swans. I haven’t thought Sydney have been that good this year, but as much as I considered backing the Hawks again I’m going to play it safe and go with the favourites.
As for the ‘actual’ ANZAC Day game, form and history mean absolutely nothing: it’s a literal nightmare for tips. The Dons’ efforts against Freo were very poor at times, and the Pies just seem to have been keeping their head above water even while losing. I’ll go the Magpies, but with little confidence and little expectation of a classic.
| Round 6 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS vs STK | STK | GWS | GWS | STK | STK |
| WB vs ADE | WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| PA vs WCE | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| FRE vs CAR | FRE | FRE | CAR | FRE | FRE |
| NM vs GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| GCS vs BL | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| RCH vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| HAW vs SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| ESS vs COL | COL | ESS | COL | COL | COL |
| ROLLING SCORE | 30 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 30 |
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