Opinion
The borders are open again but the interstate rivalry is as intense as ever when Billy Slater attempts to kick off a new era as Queensland coach in Wednesday night’s series opener against NSW in Sydney.
Despite dominating last year’s series, the Blues have also changed things up with Brad Fittler picking three rookies and bringing Daniel Tupou and Reagan Campbell-Gillard back from the representative wilderness.
NSW are predictably heavy favourites to win game one and the series but underdog status has not only never bothered the Maroons, they prefer it.
Here are the burning questions for each state heading into the State of Origin cauldron for 2022.
For all the talk about Suncorp Stadium being the Origin cauldron, NSW actually have a better strike rate at Homebush than Queensland do at the old Lang Park.
The Maroons struggle in the dewy conditions at Sydney’s Olympic Stadium, winning just nine times in 29 attempts for a paltry 31% success rate.
NSW have been victorious after 20 of their 58 bus trips down Caxton Street, around 34% of the times they’ve walked onto Brisbane’s hostile arena.
Maroons debutants Patrick Carrigan, Selwyn Cobbo, Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Maroons winger Selwyn Cobbo has played at Accor Stadium just twice in his 19-game NRL career – wins earlier this season for Brisbane over Canterbury and Souths – so he can expect plenty of kicks heading his way from the NSW kickers.
Fellow debutants Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai are yet to play an NRL match at the venue although as forwards, it shouldn’t affect their game too much.
One quirk when it comes to home-ground advantage which came up digging through the archives, the Blues had a better success rate at the old Lang Park in the 1980s and ‘90s, winning 19 of 33 games, before it became the modern Suncorp Stadium, winning just seven of 18 since it was redeveloped in 2003.
Just because you are an Origin legend doesn’t mean you will be successful as coach. Wally Lewis was the greatest player to grace the Origin stage but he lost both series 2-1 as coach in 1993-94, winning just one live game. Slater has received heavy backing from Craig Bellamy to become an NRL coach one day because of his exceptional tactical acumen as a player but it’s a major gamble from the QRL.
“I’ve never dipped my toe in in my life; it’s a start of this (coaching) for me … but just another part of my Queensland Origin story,” said Slater on Tuesday. “So where it takes me, I don’t know.
“This team has been important to me since I was a four-year-old boy … that’s the only reason I’m here.”
The two most recent Maroons coaches to get the gig without any NRL experience were Kevin Walters in 2016 and Paul Vautin in 1995 and they each won their first series so perhaps it’s not such a risky move after all.
Brian To’o. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Both back threes are under pressure to get sets rolling. When it comes to kick return metres and overall running metres at club level, the NSW trio leave their Maroons counterparts in the dust.
James Tedesco (51), Daniel Tupou (36), Brian To’o (28) make a combined 18 more kick-return metres per game than Kalyn Ponga (46), Selwyn Cobbo (30) and Xavier Coates (21).
But when you tally up running metres per game, the Blues’ back three – Tedesco (184), Tupou (156) and To’o (163) dwarf the Queensland trio – Ponga (114), Cobbo (121) and Coates (91) by a combined 503-326.
Being one of the greatest fullbacks the game has ever seen, Slater will need to drum it into Ponga and his wingers that they need to roll up their sleeves to get the hard yards out of the backfield or the Blues will dominate field position.
Tom Trbojevic’s effort of three-tries, 215 running metres, a line break and a try assist in game one last year was one of the best individual performances in Origin history. Queensland marked him better in game two but that freed up James Tedesco to run riot.
Kotoni Staggs is not a wanderer like Turbo but has the power and pace to cause damage on the right edge. The Maroons were on the wrong side of a horrible speed mismatch last year in the first two games when Kurt Capewell was chosen to fill in at left centre so at least Valentine Holmes, a much-improved defender, will keep that side of the field in check.
‘‘I think Kotoni brings a fair bit of X-factor,’’ Fittler said. ‘‘I know they [Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell] stood out last year, but there were a lot of people doing good stuff around them. When Kotoni busts the line, something normally happens. He has that little bit of speed not everyone has got, which is one of the real reasons we picked him. There are points in us.”
Daniel Tupou looks to pass for Tonga against the Kangaroos at Eden Park on November 02, 2019. (Photo by Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
Thankfully after two years of a freeze on international rugby league due to that pandemic that you may have heard about, there are Australian jerseys up for grabs again.
Apart from the retirement of captain Boyd Cordner, the other 16 players from Australia’s last Test against Tonga in November, 2019, are still running around in the NRL although you can safely put a red line through Paul Vaughan, Wade Graham and Nick Cotric for the end-of-season World Cup squad based on this season’s form.
Cordner’s successor as captain is still to be determined with James Tedesco and Daly Cherry-Evans the frontrunners unless the ARL Commission looks to the future and appoints a younger long-term option like Nathan Cleary.
Tedesco, Cherry-Evans, Jack Wighton, Cameron Munster, Josh Papali’i, Damien Cook, Cameron Murray and Payne Haas are the only Kangaroos players from that Test who are lining up for Origin I although Blues centre Kotoni Staggs and winger Daniel Tupou were also in action that day at Eden Park, wearing the red of Tonga.
NSW have scored 1992 points in Origin history so they will likely surpass the 2000 milestone in game one. If they dominate like last year’s series, they could even overtake the Maroons, who are on 2014. There’s still a long way to go for the Blues to catch up on the matches won (65-56) and series ledgers (24-16).
NSW will also become the first state to use 300 players with rookie trio Kotoni Staggs. Stephen Crichton and Ryan Matterson making their debut.
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