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RUGBYCOLOGY: The Wallabies player rival teams target at the restart, and why he's a weakness

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Expert
5th July, 2022
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All supporters know the feeling: your team just scored a great try, only to lose possession from the restart and then concede points themselves.

With the July series in the southern hemisphere in full swing, we can now work with fresh data to study how teams approach restarts and who is having the most success.

What is a restart?

Restarts are essentially kickoffs and can occur from the halfway line, the 22-metre line and the goal line. These are considered ‘structured’ platforms because teams can train these set plays and formulate strategies. Unlike a turnover, for example, coaches and analysts can roughly predict where their opponents will land their kicks and plan accordingly.

Good and bad outcomes

To better grasp which teams have good or bad restart outcomes, we need to first study the range of outcomes that teams experience each time they get an attack opportunity, be it from a restart or a scrum or a turnover or whatever.

The worst possible outcome is to lose possession to a turnover or a penalty without having gained any territory. An average outcome would be to retain possession, even if no territory was gained. Similarly, gaining territory but losing possession with, for example, a forward pass is considered an average outcome because you get to contest the next scrum.

Great outcomes are when you gain territory while also retaining the ball. An even better outcome is when you score points. So with these broad classifications of outcomes now defined, we can study how well teams performed this weekend when attacking from restarts.

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Last gamePoorAverageGreat
All Blacks14.271.414.2
Ireland07525
Wallabies40600
England14.271.414.2
Springboks33.355.611.1
Wales14.385.70
Argentina12.587.50
Scotland50500

Based on the above data from this past Saturday (2 July 2020), it’s the Wallabies who take the wooden spoon, while Ireland have the best outcomes.

Data analysis, however, always takes a long-term view. We try to spot trends and often try to measure the strengths and weaknesses that teams may not even realise they have. With this in mind, let’s have a look at our sample teams’ performances from restarts over the last six or so games.

SeasonPoorAverageGreat
All Blacks27.16111.8
Ireland37.145.717.1
Wallabies41.752.85.6
England21.165.813.1
Springboks286210
Wales37.562.50
Argentina23.576.50
Scotland33.366.70

With restarts I would argue that it’s better to have fewer ‘poor’ outcomes than to have a high rate of ‘good’ outcomes. This is because the vast majority of restarts land in one’s own half, and losing possession to a turnover or penalty can have dire consequences. It’s something you just have to get right.

So while Wales achieve no great outcomes, they also have a lower percentage of poor outcomes from restarts, which means the Wallabies are currently the team with the worst attack from restarts out of the teams sampled.

Towards predictability: how to ensure your opponent gains a poor outcome

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Many years ago I was fortunate to attend a seminar with Springboks coach Nick Mallett. Nick’s technical consultant at the time was a young Jake White, who told a good story pertaining to how video analysis changed the game around the start of the new millennium.

When studying game tapes White noticed how the All Blacks always kicked their restarts directly to Rassie Erasmus, who at the time was the Boks No. 6 flanker. Erasmus had a very good skill set and was safe under the high ball, so White could not understand why the Kiwis would always kick on him.

After the Tri Nations in 1998 White asked his New Zealand counterpart why they kicked on Rassie when this player was the safest bet to secure the ball. According to the Kiwis, Rassie’s behaviour when fielding kicks was entirely predictable. The player would run a metre or so to the left and then step off the left foot and take contact. Rassie would not pass or kick the ball, ever.

The Kiwis knew that Rassie will not fumble the ball, but his behaviour meant that they could plan entirely how to defend the Boks restart.

For the same reason, we see teams kick on Marika Koroibete. The winger is by far Australia’s most explosive player, yet his behaviour when fielding restarts is so predictable that he is the preferred fielder for most teams kicking onto the Wallabies.

UK rugby writer Mick Cleary joins Brett McKay and Harry Jones to discuss the first Test and look ahead to game two

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Marika will catch the ball, accelerate and try to bash through contact. He often succeeds, but his support is too slow to the ruck and the Wallabies end up turning over the ball, often in their own 22. Being a backline player of slightly smaller stature means that Marika leaves a larger ‘gate’ for the opposing defence to play through. This is why forwards fielding kicks are often safer bets, even if they are not as safe under the high ball as backs are.

The reality is that the Wallabies restart is struggling, and the reason for this is known to most opponents. It will be interesting to see whether the Wallabies can adapt during this season and make the restart a strength instead of a weakness.

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