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Opinion
Never mind Oprah Winfrey, all it takes is a bit of history in a few countries and bloody hell, it’s third and deciding Tests for everyone!
New Zealand gets a decider! Australia gets a decider! South Africa! Argentina! You! All! Get! Deciders!
The shame of the move toward the global championship format mooted for 2024 and beyond is that we won’t get three-Test series anymore, meaning we’ll be deprived of the build-up heading into the respective third Tests.
Because all of a sudden – and it is suddenly – more than a few series that perhaps weren’t expected to be as close as they’ve now become, are properly alive and thumping.
New Zealand-Australia-South Africa-Argentina. Ireland-England-Wales-Scotland.
Clean sweeps might have been foreseen in Week 1, but no one picked four winners last weekend.
And it all means that picking four winners this weekend is a whole lot harder.
And sure, it’s awfully convenient that we’re not tipping anymore, but it does mean there’s even more to talk about.
How good.
Digger
Simple he says!
No, not so simple as Ireland are a good chance here and have all the momentum.
But, as ever the eternal optimist I try to be, the All Blacks will win because I cannot see Ireland replicating such a quality defensive effort two weeks in a row. I also do not believe New Zealand will be that ill-disciplined – nor, frankly, that unlucky two weeks in a row.
There is enough attacking talent in the home side to snatch it, and this will show through on Saturday night.
Geoff
New Zealand tend to do well in these ‘backs to the wall’ situations. Invariably they tighten their approach, play more directly and benefit as a result. They know they still have the scoring power, but that it counts for nothing if they can’t fracture Ireland up front first.
Ireland will of course be well prepared; they are a tight, tungsten-tipped defensive unit. Every inch will have to be hard earned. Having conceded the opening in both Tests, the All Blacks must also start better – and keep 15 players on the park. If they do all of this, they will win.
The Wallabies are thinner in manpower than they’d prefer to be, but regardless, it’s a similar blueprint.
They must impose their ball-running power forwards on the game, not sit back and wait to deal with what England brings. While Lewis Ludlum has been an impressive back-up, Maro Itoje, Tom Curry and Sam Underhill collectively represent a huge hole.
If Australia can get better field position and nail their lineout throws when they do, they can win.
Taniela Tupou (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Harry
Blessedly at sea level again, South Africa will win comfortably.
Faf de Klerk and Lood de Jager have been in sea-level Manchester for years, much of the pack is from the Western Cape or subtropical KwaZulu, centurion Eben Etzebeth, superstar Cheslin Kolbe, and Top14 champion Handre Pollard have villas on the Mediterranean – not the Alps – Damian de Allende is a firepit Munsterman, and the Japanese-based guys don’t play on Mount Fuji.
Is there one current (and true member of a real 23) Bok who lives at altitude?
Oxygen deprivation favours the fitter team: Wales. Knocked out early of the URC, ever-fit Wales had 1000-plus well-conditioned and cohesive caps on the pitch in Bloemfontein against an experimental Springbok side (less than 500 caps and most of those worn by three players, with first-time combinations in every part of the team).
Mad scientist Dr Nienaber has run his double-blind control games. It gave him a quick, Test-level look at two rookie nines and two baby wings, and allowed him to quiet the South African public about Marcell Coetzee and Andre Esterhuizen.
Damian de Allende and Willie le Roux were the big winners of the second Test in the great selection debate. However, Evan Roos did pass.
Now Nienaber will be forced to put Rugby World Cup plans to the side and win a damn match against a tough team who have their tails up. Contrary to casual observers of highlights, the Boks have rather easily won the pack battle, with each of the three flights of forwards controlling two-thirds of the pill and four-fifths of the collisions, except for the Pocockian exploits of Tommy ‘Sweeper’ Reffell, the player of the series so far.
Enough. An 800-plus-cap South Africa will play, Tommy will be cleaned, the chase will squeeze Liam Williams and Louis Rees-Zammit, the game will be slow and powerful and much more brutal.
Bad boy Boks by a bunch (12-15).
Brett
Ultimately, it comes down to firepower.
At set piece, there really hasn’t been much between the Wallabies and England. Both have had their moments of scrum domination, and both have seen their lineout go from penthouse to outhouse and back in Perth and Brisbane. This time around, the Wallabies will be without Cadeyrn Neville, but England will be without Maro Itoje.
And it’s relatively even at breakdown, too. England certainly came out on top in the second Test, but I’m not sure that was the case in the first. Are England now at a bigger disadvantage, without Sam Underhill on top of Tom Curry? Maybe.
So, if it’s pretty even at set piece and breakdown, and only six points separates the two sides across the series so far, all that’s really left are attacking threats.
And this is where the Aussies have an edge, because they are playing more concertedly to where they can ask more questions of the defence. England’s attack has been surprisingly narrow for a side that said they wanted to play more rugby when first arriving, whereas Australia’s outside men have been far more involved.
It doesn’t have to be by many, it only has to be by enough. And across the two matches so far, it’s been Australia that have looked more dangerous.
If it’s pretty even across the board everywhere else, then the Wallabies just need to play to their one area of strength to get it done.
Digger
I cannot say I have been surprised by what the Irish have shown on tour, but the All Blacks have underestimated Ireland’s ability to adapt.
Their defensive system, in particular from the first to second Test, made significant changes, while the All Blacks made no real changes to their attack and ended up paying the price for it.
This has been a significant failure from the Kiwi brains trust, clearly made without due consideration of Ireland’s abilities and think tank.
Geoff
Nothing at all has surprised me about Ireland, and I’m sure it hasn’t surprised Ian Foster nor anybody in the All Blacks’ camp.
Much of Ireland’s play in the second Test was reminiscent of their wins in 2016 and 2021, so no surprises there. Seize the initiative at high pace and high intensity, and throw the ABs right off their game, all backed with quality skill execution.
I don’t think we’ll see any change to a winning formula this week, either.
I’m not sure the Wallabies will have underestimated any aspect of England’s play as well, other than Darcy Swain seemingly being taken by surprise by the off-the-ball stuff thrown his way in Perth.
England have done pretty much what Dave Rennie expected – the trick for the Wallabies is not to grant them such long periods in control of the momentum, and to take the game to their opponents first.
Harry
Wales was not fit in the Six Nations.
Yes, they held France to a 13-9 win (France only scored one early try) but shorn of most of their best, they could not play three in a row.
The upside was Will Rowlands, who was a real shout for team of the tourney, and Wales is now underestimated by all, including the Welsh!
How is any backline with Dan Biggar, George North, Williams, Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams, and Alex Cuthbert a set of bums? The loose forwards are all smart and Taulupe Faletau is world class. Lions all over the show.
But I suppose I underestimated how good Reffell is. He had his dream debut at Loftus and got even better at Bloemfontein. He’s the best loosie on the park, until Pieter-Steph du Toit finds fitness (and sea level will help).
Pieter-Steph Du Toit dives in for a try. (Odd Andersen/AFP/Getty Images)
Brett
I probably backed us all into a corner this week, because I don’t really think any team really underestimates their opposition at international level. The pressure is just too intense and the scrutiny now comes in high definition.
But if something surprised the Wallabies last week, then perhaps it was that England just kept coming at them and never let up the relentless pressure.
Whereas in the first Test I wasn’t really sure Australia would win the match until Pete Samu’s try, in the second Test, I just felt like Australia remained in control and would always find the points to be in front at the end.
But they couldn’t find the points because they just kept making mistakes, and the kept making mistakes because of English pressure.
So it was the overthrown lineout with ten minutes to play. It was James O’Connor getting himself isolated in the ruck in the 72nd minute. Jake Gordon completely mistiming a pass to Marika Koroibete in the 77th. Angus Bell penalised in the scrum a minute later. Rob Valetini throwing himself into an 80th-minute ruck from about a quarter-to-nine rather than six-o’clock.
They were all different mistakes when it mattered, because the pressure was everywhere and it was immense.
And they can’t be surprised again this week.
Why will your team win their decider this weekend?
And what has surprised you most about your team’s opposition this series?