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2022 AFL season: Round 19 preview

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Roar Guru
21st July, 2022
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There are only five rounds remaining before the finals and time is running out for certain teams to keep their double chance hopes alive, and/or make a late run towards September.

Under pressure from the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda, Richmond will attempt to bounce back from consecutive upset losses when they host Fremantle at Marvel Stadium to kick off the round, with the Dockers making a rare appearance on the Friday night prime time stage.

Another loss for Damien Hardwick’s side could see them drop out of the eight by the end of the round as they face the possibility of watching September football from the sidelines for a second straight year.

The Sydney Swans start their armchair’s ride towards another finals series with a winnable home game against the Adelaide Crows, while back in South Australia, it’s do or die for Port Adelaide when they welcome ladder leaders the Geelong Cats to the Oval.

Hobart’s first Tasmanian Derby will see North Melbourne attempt to notch consecutive wins for the first time since 2020 when they welcome the Hawks to town, while the Brisbane Lions can all but put an end to the Gold Coast Suns’ September dreams at the Gabba.

The MCG’s only match of the round sees Collingwood host Essendon, with the Pies looking to make it nine in a row and halt the Bombers’ late-season momentum which has seen them win four of their past five matches.

At the end of it, St Kilda’s finals hopes go on the line behind WA’s borders when they face the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium.

Here is your preview to Round 19.

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Richmond vs Fremantle

Do-or-die arrives for both Richmond and Fremantle when they clash under the roof at Marvel Stadium, with both sides attempting to keep their respective hopes of a top-eight finish and double chance, respectively.

The Tigers have come under fire for dropping their past two matches, first blowing a 40-point lead against the Gold Coast Suns to lose after the final siren, followed by paying the price for taking North Melbourne lightly at Marvel Stadium last Saturday night.

Nothing summed up the Tigers’ ineptitude when Jake Aarts played on and missed a running shot at goal after taking a mark in the final minute, when he should have just taken his time and had a set shot.

Despite their recent hiccups, Damien Hardwick’s side remain in eighth place on the ladder, but remain vulnerable to being overtaken by either the Western Bulldogs or St Kilda, both of whom are equal on points with the Tigers but face some tricky matches over the weekend.

They’ll have to make do without Tom Lynch and Dustin Martin, neither of whom will face the Dockers this Friday night.

Freo, meantime, will be wondering where it all went wrong after they coughed up an early 25-point lead to lose to the Sydney Swans at home last Saturday night, dropping just their third game at home this season and first against non-Victorian opposition.

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One major highlight of their performance last week, though, was the shutdown performance by Griffin Logue who kept Swans superstar Lance “Buddy” Franklin to only one major, that coming off a free-kick on the half-time siren which undoubtedly derailed the Dockers’ momentum.

To celebrate Retro Round, the Purple Haze will wear a special 3D anchor guernsey which is a throwback to the club’s early days when success was hard to come by.

Despite their poor defeat last week, and having to make the trip east to Melbourne for its first Friday night match on free-to-air television this year, the Dockers should bounce back and continue the Tigers’ woes at Docklands.

Prediction: Fremantle by six points.

(Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows

With arguably the easiest run home of all clubs still in finals contention, the Sydney Swans will continue their warm-up for September when they welcome the Adelaide Crows to the SCG on Saturday afternoon.

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Trailing Fremantle by 15 points at half-time last week, coach John Longmire revamped his side’s game plan on the run, taking 127 uncontested marks – 57 more than the Dockers – for the match as they starved the home side of the ball in the second half.

It was their second win from as many attempts in Perth this season and has them primed for a strong finish as they will start hot favourites in at least four of their five remaining matches, with only the match against Collingwood in round 22 a real toss of the coin.

The Crows head to Sydney off the back of a heartbreaking five-point loss to the Pies, another tough result in what’s been a testing season for the men from West Lakes who have suffered from the absence of its captain Rory Sloane due to injury.

A major subplot of this match will be Swans assistant coach Don Pyke and Crows coach Matthew Nicks coming up against sides they used to coach and play for, respectively.

When the teams met in round two last year it was Pyke who had the last laugh on the side he departed at the end of 2019, following a rather tumultuous four-year tenure which ended with the Crows missing the finals in consecutive seasons after reaching the Grand Final in 2017.

Lance Franklin and Luke Parker celebrate.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The Crows have not returned to September since and this will be the fifth straight year that they will witness finals football from the sidelines, and any lack of improvement next year could see Nicks’ coaching future come into the spotlight.

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As for Pyke, Longmire and the Swans, the only thing they can do is go about their business and on Saturday there’ll be no excuses for them not to take the points on offer at the SCG.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 22 points.

North Melbourne vs Hawthorn

For the first time, North Melbourne will host a Tasmanian Derby when they tackle Hawthorn in Hobart, following several previous encounters in Launceston (the Hawks’ home ground).

The Roos put an end to a dramatic week, during which coach David Noble was sacked, with a heartstopping four-point upset of Richmond at Marvel Stadium last Saturday night, with Cameron Zurhaar scoring the match-winning goal with under three minutes remaining.

It was a dream start for Leigh Adams, who replicated Rhyce Shaw’s 2019 effort of defeating the Tigers in his first game as North Melbourne’s caretaker coach in the week following the departure of a head coach.

Despite their morale-boosting win, the manner in which the players celebrated the win came into question given the horrible state of affairs the club is at both on and off the field.

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They will however fancy their chances of making it two-in-a-row when they face the Hawks, who are coming off two straight wins, the latest of them a 25-point win over the West Coast Eagles at the MCG.

On a day when premiership heroes Jordan Lewis, Grant Birchall, Paul Puopolo and Ben Stratton were honoured pre-match, Sam Mitchell’s side turned back the clock with Luke Breust booting an equal career-high six majors as the Hawks notched their sixth win of the season.

Tom Mitchell of the Hawks speaks with AFL umpire Hayden Gavine after a 50-metre penalty was awarded to Geelong.

Tom Mitchell of the Hawks. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

That it came against the Eagles at the G was a bit of a throwback, given it was them that the Hawks defeated for their third consecutive flag back in 2015.

Breust, Liam Shiels and Jack Gunston are the only players remaining from the club’s 2013-15 premiership era and would surely love to be part of the side that ushers in the next era of success before they eventually retire from the game.

Having already beaten the Kangaroos by 20 points back in round one, you’d back the Hawks in to complete the double, but it won’t come easy against a side that’s not only coming off a much-needed win but will also be eager to show just who’s boss in Hobart.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 20 points.

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Port Adelaide vs Geelong Cats

Every match from here on in is a virtual elimination final for Port Adelaide, whose finals hopes took a huge blow when they lost to Melbourne in the Heart of the Nation clash in Alice Springs last Sunday.

They were far from disgraced, but the reality is that their 0-5 start to the season will ultimately cost them a finals berth, and it could spell the end of Ken Hinkley as coach after a decade in charge.

It does not get any easier for the boys from Alberton whose next three matches are against teams currently in the eight, starting with Saturday night’s blockbuster home clash against the top-placed Geelong Cats at the Oval.

Chris Scott’s side head to the City of Churches having won their past eight matches, the latest of which was a five-goal win over Carlton at the MCG in which Sam De Koning not only got the better of his brother Tom, but also kept reigning Coleman Medallist Harry McKay goalless.

Tom Atkins of the Cats in action.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

They have already gone one-up on the Power this season with a 35-point win at Kardinia Park, but while there is a sizable gap between the two sides on the ladder facing them on their home turf, especially with their finals hopes on the line, will be a tougher proposition.

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Interestingly, neither side has been able to notch up consecutive wins against each other since 2017-18, when the Cats won at Kardinia Park and at the Oval in those two years respectively.

If this trend continues, then the Power might be due for a win, but in what is the Cats’ only match in Adelaide this year the visitors should take the points.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 18 points.

Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns

Whatever hopes the Gold Coast Suns have of breaking through for a maiden finals appearance will go on the line when they travel up the M1 to face the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba on Saturday night.

Following its epic comeback victory over Richmond in round 17, the Suns were brought back to earth the following week when it lost to Essendon by 48 points, with co-captain Touk Miller admitting in the aftermath that they didn’t turn up to play.

Now they must face a Lions side they haven’t beaten since round 5, 2018, and who hit back hard from their upset loss to Essendon with a strong 40-point win over the GWS Giants in Canberra last weekend.

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Rhys Mathieson made a welcome return to the side while Lachie Neale again deputised as captain in Dayne Zorko’s absence, though the latter is expected return after missing the past two matches.

With plenty at stake for both sides, the 23rd edition of the QClash promises to be the biggest yet, with the Lions looking to secure a double chance for a fourth straight year and the Suns attempting to keep its finals hopes alive but facing a major hoodoo to do so.

Even if they don’t end up qualifying for the finals, the Suns will still record its best season since 2014, in which they finished 12th with ten wins before then-coach Guy McKenna was controversially sacked after that season was deemed not good enough by the board.

But in the end, the Lions will show the Suns just who’s boss in south east Queensland with a win, which will all but end their M1 rivals’ September dreams.

Prediction: Brisbane Lions by 28 points.

Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne

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Our second Grand Final rematch this season sees the Western Bulldogs look to keep their season alive when they face Melbourne, just over four months after the Dees repeated the dose in round one at the MCG.

The Dogs put a week of criticism behind them with a strong 28-point win over St Kilda, keeping the Saints goalless in the first quarter and kicking the first seven goals as Josh Bruce made his long-awaited comeback from a knee injury which he suffered in round 21 last year.

They are now equal on points with Richmond but sit in ninth on the ladder by just three percentage points; they’ll have the chance to jump into the eight but must rely on a Fremantle win over the Tigers the previous night to do so.

Melbourne, on the other hand, rebounded from its loss to the Geelong Cats – its first outside of the MCG since round 13 last year – with a gritty 14-point win over Port Adelaide in the Heart of the Nation clash last week.

It was a case of no Clayton Oliver, no worries as the Dees overcame a goalless first quarter to notch their 17th win of the season, with Kysaiah Pickett the star of the show with six majors.

Oliver, who missed his first match since 2016 due to a thumb injury, is expected back into the side as the Dees push for a top two finish, with a huge final month ahead for the club which includes a second trip to Perth and one to Brisbane to face the Lions in the run home.

Ultimately, while the Bulldogs would love to keep their finals hopes alive, the Dees’ class will win out in the end.

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Prediction: Melbourne by 25 points.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Carlton vs GWS Giants

After a disappointing loss to the Geelong Cats at the MCG last Saturday night, Carlton will start hot favourites to hit back and all but punch their ticket to September for the first time since 2013 when they face the GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium.

The Blues would’ve learnt plenty of lessons from that defeat, in which reigning Coleman Medallist Harry McKay was kept goalless, leaving his forward partner in crime Charlie Curnow to boot three majors, and were taught a lesson in what it takes to be an elite football team like the Cats.

It has dented their hopes of a first double chance since 2000, and with a tough final month to come including back-to-back trips to Adelaide (to face the Crows) and Brisbane (to face the Lions), a victory against the struggling GWS Giants is a non-negotiable.

Interim coach Mark McVeigh questioned his side’s mentality after they crashed to a 40-point loss to the Brisbane Lions in Canberra; that, coupled with a 55-point loss to Port Adelaide the previous week, leaves them at risk of recording their worst season since 2014.

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Their poor form for most of this season will be an interesting talking point when the board gather to decide on who will be their next coach, a decision they hope to make by September.

Things do not get any easier for the Giants in the next fortnight; following the clash against the Blues, they face a six-day break before returning home to Sydney for an SCG Derby against the Swans.

While the end of the season can’t come quickly enough for the Giants, for the Blues it’ll be about building towards September and a win will give them some confidence heading into a treacherous final four rounds of the season.

Prediction: Carlton by 30 points.

Collingwood vs Essendon

A large crowd is expected on hand when traditional rivals Collingwood and Essendon square off at the MCG.

The Pies have emerged as the surprise packets of season 2022, notching up eight wins in succession to be in with the chance of securing a double chance come September.

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Last week, in captain Scott Pendlebury’s 350th game, the Pies withstood a serious challenge from the Crows to win by only five points at the Oval, also notching up their sixth straight win against the men from West Lakes in the process.

Meantime, the Bombers continue to salvage what’s been a disappointing season, winning four of their last five matches to move away from wooden spoon territory and give their fans something to think about for next year.

A goal of the year contender from Sam Draper was the highlight out of their 48-point win over the Gold Coast Suns, as they brought the men from the holiday strip crashing back to earth following their epic comeback win over Richmond the previous week.

The fans are certainly thinking what certainly could’ve, or should’ve been, their side having beaten the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions in the preceding fortnight, teams are are bound for finals in 2022.

There is the faintest mathematical hope that the Bombers could force their way into the eight, but more realistically, they will miss the eight once again meaning 2003-04 remains the most recent time in which they’ve made finals in consecutive years.

Try as they might, but the Bombers should eventually be grounded by the Pies who will be seeking a ninth straight win.

Prediction: Collingwood by 20 points.

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West Coast Eagles vs St Kilda

Having fallen out of the eight after such a promising start to the season, St Kilda will attempt to keep its finals hopes alive when they face the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium to finish off round 19.

The spotlight has been on the club over the past month-and-a-half, during which they’ve won only one match to drop from as high as fourth after round eleven to 10th on the ladder with five rounds to go in the regular season.

Brett Ratten’s side appeared to turn a corner with a win over Carlton in round sixteen, but disappointing losses to Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs in the past fortnight has seen the blowtorch directed their way.

Souring their loss ot the Bulldogs, in which they conceded the first seven goals, was the season-ending calf injury suffered by veteran ruckman Paddy Ryder, and with the 34-year-old out of contract it’s expected he will retire at season’s end.

If he does hang up the boots, he would be the last remaining player to have been coached by Kevin Sheedy at Essendon to retire from the game.

To put that into context, and just to show how much the game has changed over all those years:
* there are no remaining players at Hawthorn from Alastair Clarkson’s first game in charge (though Buddy Franklin, who debuted under him in 2005, is still active but is now at the Sydney Swans);
* Jack Riewoldt, Shane Edwards and Trent Cotchin are the only survivors remaining from Terry Wallace’s tenure as Richmond coach;
* with Jarryn Geary’s immediate retirement, it means no active St Kilda player ever played alongside Robert Harvey;
* Joel Selwood and Lance Franklin are the only remaining premiership players from the pre-2009 period;
* Sam Reid and Josh Kennedy are the only survivors remaining at the Sydney Swans from Paul Roos’ tenure as coach;
* Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom are the only survivors remaining from Collingwood’s 2010 premiership side still at the club today.

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Last week the Eagles made a good contest out of their clash against the Hawks in wet conditions, with defender Tom Barrass playing one of his best career games as he held Hawks key forward Mitchell Lewis goalless.

Adam Simpson addresses the Eagles

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Adam Simpson’s men, however, find themselves back in a battle to avoid the wooden spoon, having been joined on eight premiership points by the Kangaroos who had upset Richmond the previous day.

They will fancy their chances at home against a St Kilda side that is badly out of form, in what’s set to be Josh Kennedy’s penultimate home game before an expected farewell game against the Adelaide Crows in round 21.

It’s become clear that the game has outgrown the soon-to-be 35 year old, who arrived at the club as part of the Chris Judd trade that saw him return to his native Victoria at the end of the 2007 season.

But while the Eagles will relish the home ground advantage, I think the Saints can bounce back and make it two from two in Perth this year.

Prediction: St Kilda by 17 points.

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