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NBA season 2022-23: Talking myself into my own stupid bet

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Roar Rookie
24th July, 2022
1

So I made a futures bet that I didn’t need to make, but my lack of attention span once again got the best of me.

Major props to people who make same game multis every weekend on numerous games. I’m on the tail end of a four-week journey of making relatively low risk, moderate reward multis that fly in the face of my usual ridiculous bet for major paybacks that never get up.

It was a fruitful four weeks where I won a lot more than usual but staring through any time goal kickers and 15 disposal players got monotonous, so I emptied my account onto the following bet.

Four leg multi – $350 bet @ $2293.89 odds for a win of $802,864.40
Luka Doncic – MVP – $5.24
Paolo Banchero – Rookie of the Year – $4.39
Anthony Edwards – Most Improved Player – $10.53
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Defensive Player of the Year – $9.47

I started the winning with a $20 bet and managed to withdraw around $1000 over the month, so the $350 I had left didn’t even seem like my money.

It just seemed like a free bonus to blow how I saw fit. And blow it I did!

I didn’t need to make this bet for a couple (hundred?) reasons. It’s not like the odds are going to change drastically between now and the start of preseason, and if that is the case why the hell wouldn’t I wait to see if there were any more moves that could affect the odds (hi Brooklyn, hi KD)?

Nonetheless I made it, and here is my rationale behind the picks.

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Luka Doncic – MVP

It just seems like everything is lining up for Luka at the moment, isn’t it? Or is that just something I’m reading into. This will be his fifth season. He has seemingly come into every season before out of shape with the mind frame that he will play himself into shape during the season.

Hell that’s not even a dig because every season that is exactly what he has done, and out of shape Luka was still cooking fools leaguewide.

He’s had interrupted preseasons essentially every season. There was the weird bubble season which led into the Olympics in 2020, which then lead into two shortened off-seasons while the NBA tried to get the schedule back on track after COVID.

Possibly because of the combination of shortened off seasons and that “meh I’ll be ready when it counts” mentality the most games Luka has played in a season is 72…in his rookie season.

Since then, he has missed 14, 16 and 17 games in the seasons following. Now that he has a taste of the lights when they are brightest, you must expect a player of his greatness to want that taste again, and again, and again. What he did to Phoenix in that series, the ease with which he completely dismantled an all-time regular season team, he should want to do that night in night out for 82 games and beyond.

The question about Luka has seemed to be when it will click for him. When will he realise that to be the best of the best, it’s a year-round grind? It seems like this is the offseason it has clicked, and the league should be on notice.

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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic. Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Other favourites: Joel Embiid – I don’t have a read on Joel or Philly just yet. Informative I know.

Giannis Antetokounmpo – I personally think will be Luka’s biggest threat. A second round exit for Giannis? That will light a fire inside him to light the league up.

Nikola Jokic – He will not win no matter what stats he puts up or where Denver finish. Voter fatigue is real. What I love most about Joker is that he could not possibly give less fucks about this.

Jayson Tatum – I fancied him to win this as of the Nets series last season, but after seeing him against Golden State I feel he may still be a couple seasons off putting it all together for an MVP season.

Paolo Banchero – Rookie of the Year

As a general rule, let’s call in the Michael Carter-Williams rule, the Rookie of the Year all comes down to opportunity and touches.

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The more touches, the more counting stats, the more likely you are to catch the voters’ eyes. I don’t think the media care too much about the defensive metrics and deep analytics of the rookies. They care about buckets. They care about your buckets, and you getting other players buckets.

Therefore Paolo has to be the prohibitive favourite. The link to MCW isn’t a dig at Paolo, it doesn’t need to be said he will be a wee bit better than him. His brief Summer League stint showed that he is going to be an absolute force in the league.

He’s massive, he can shoot the piss out of it, he can get to the cup and he can initiate offense and set up team mates. He has some growing to do on the defensive end, and he will get there, but that doesn’t matter in the rookie season lets be real. All these skills, and he lands on Orlando where he will immediately be thrown the keys, much to the disgust of Cole Anthony’s favourite player Cole Anthony, and the Magic will let him get to work and let him start growing alongside Franz and Suggs.

All this to say, Magic will be an awesome League Pass team, and the RoY award is Paolo’s to lose at this point. Getting him at $4.20 are fantastic odds.

Paolo Banchero #5 of the Duke Blue Devils reacts during their game against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Final Four semifinal at Caesars Superdome on April 2, 2022 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)

Paolo Banchero  (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)

Other favourites: Chet Holmgren – You want to trust OKC to play a rookie for a whole season? Be my guest. I’m not fucking with that.

Jabari Smith – Playing with Jaylen Green and KPJ automatically takes your touches away whether the coach wants it or not. He strikes me as a 2nd or 3rd season MIP guy over RoY.

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Keegan Murray – Paolo’s closest competition (and great odds at $7), but kind of like trusting OKC to play a rookie a whole season, do you trust Sacramento to do anything to put their players in a situation to succeed?

He’ll be really good but playing off of Fox and Sabonis will greatly stifle his output you would think.

Anthony Edwards – Most Improved Player

So listen, I don’t mind the Wolves getting Rudy Gobert. I mean, as a rule of thumb my Co-Commish (shout out) and I won’t draft, trade for, or sign French players due to a bad experience I had travelling to France, but I don’t mind someone else making this move.

I absolutely hate the price they paid, I mean who else was chasing Rudy that hard, and he is absolutely overpaid *checks Spotrac for Clint Capela’s salary number*, but I think the move will open up and accelerate other aspects of Ant Man’s game which will help Minny in the short and long term as he is the franchise guy they are building around.

Not to sound like a flog, but Edwards has that dog in him. He has it. It’s the opposite of what DeAndre Ayton has. No one needs to get into Edwards to motivate him.

He wants to be the best, and he is fully expecting, with putting the work in, to be the best, and anyone who gets in his way can swiftly fuck off.

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This season I fully expect to Ant to handle the ball. A lot. I’m expecting him to step up his scoring and assist numbers playing alongside Gobert and KAT.

For as limited Gobert is as an “offensive weapon” he will be the best roll man Ant has played with. He will catch many a lob from Ant when the D collapses on Ant, and he will be in the box seat for many an Ant jam if the defence hesitates or sags to Gobert.

And hey, want to send help? I’m sure Ant will be content with kicking out to KAT for some open looks. I mean, KAT is no Dirk, but he’s an ok bootleg copy.

All these things considered; I’m thinking this is the season Ant Man takes off. I would try and insert a clever movie reference there, but I haven’t seen it so forget it.

Other favourites: Tyrese Haliburton – Too much of a team guy. I ride with Tyrese, I think Sacramento should have their franchise revoked for trading him, as in the feather that broke the camels back, not purely because of that move, and I think he’s a winning guy.

But that also means selfless to a fault and I fully expect him to let Mathurin, Duarte, Hield and Turner shine if it means winning which takes away some of that MIP shine.

Zion Williamson – Can he stay on the floor? Can Most Improved for him be playing 50 games? That’s a pretty big improvement for Zion. High risk, moderate reward at $14.

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Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett – Maybe? I think there is too much in the air for the Knicks at the minute, which is part of the reason I never should have made this bet in the first place.

Is Donovan Mitchell a Knick come opening night? You would think that would greatly hamper either guys ability to shine enough to win this award, and that is if RJ isn’t a part of the trade in the first place. Knicks gon Knick as they say, which is also a factor to not bet on a Knick.

Giannis Antetokounmpo – Defensive Player of the Year

I feel like this one is the simplest of my picks – I simply trust Giannis to be better. With the shine being off the Bucks after they were eliminated in the second round, with the spotlight being on Boston (the youth hitting their stride!), Miami (Heat Culture!), Philly (Wow what a team guy Harden is taking a pay cut!) and the Nets (the actual fuck is going on?), I trust Giannis to internalise the noise being on other teams and players, use it as fuel, and come out and show everyone that the league still runs through him.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

(Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

It’s why I have him for DPoY and why I’m terrified of betting against him for MVP.

Other Favourites: Rudy Gobert – I’m not betting on a French guy.

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Bam Adebayo – Everyone wants him to take a step forward offensively, will this affect his defence?

Robert Williams – Anyone who has his injury and still hits the deck 14 times a game I’m not trusting to play enough games to win anything. Also on a side note, I think he’s an awesome defender but as I said in the chat during the Finals, I think teams should still attack him.

Williams will jump at EVERYTHING and attempt the homerun spike rejection. Guess what? If he knocks it into the second tier, your team still retains possession, and if you’re attacking and he’s jumping, all you need is a whistle happy ref (not hard to find these days) and you can get a couple of quick cheap fouls on him forcing him to sit.

So to sum it all up, this bet is a sure thing and I’ll be a shitload richer this time next year. Lock it in.

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