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It’s a scary thought for St George Illawarra fans but what if Anthony Griffin has been the right coach for the job over the past two seasons.
No, really. This roster was never going to seriously challenge for the title anyway.
Let me preface this by saying this is not my personal opinion, it is merely presenting an alternative viewpoint to the one that has been shouted from the rooftops by fans, commentators, journalists, pretty much anyone outside the current Dragons team.
Griffin could turn out to be the coach that bridges the gap between the bottom of the ladder and the middle ground before someone else comes in to take them to the top.
He is contracted until the end of 2023 after the club exercised its option on his services for next year before Round 1 this season but judging by the mixed messages coming out of the Dragons, he is unlikely to remain at the helm long term.
When stories start leaking out that the directors are reviewing a coach’s position, they usually have a few weeks to turn the team around or they will be shown the door irrespective of whether there’s a public statement proclaiming the full support of the board, which happened recently with Griffin.
We’ve also had another surefire indicator that trouble is a’brewin’ with assistant coaches Peter Gentle and Mathew Head being told during the week that their services will not be required next year. Slaughtering scapegoats won’t appease the angry Dragons mob.
Most teams on their pathway to title contention do so after a slow build-up of at least a few years.
There are a few outliers like the Panthers of 2003 or the Wests Tigers a couple of years later or the premiership-winning Sharks six seasons go who got their hands on the trophy after a dramatic rise from the bottom of the ladder following the peptides scandal.
But for the most part, the teams that have lifted the trophy in the past three decades of the full-time professional era have been clubs that have enjoyed lengthy periods near the top of the ladder like Melbourne and the Roosters in recent times or ones like the current Panthers dominators who built up over the course of a few years to become true contenders.
The Dragons finished 15th in 2019 with an 8-16 record, saved from the embarrassment of a wooden spoon by a woeful Titans team which registered just four wins.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Their fortunes didn’t turn around the following year and by Round 14 of a season shortened due to the pandemic, Paul McGregor was out the door and Dean Young filled in for the final six weeks as the team limped into 12th with a 7-13 record.
The board could have stuck by Young or brought in another up-and-coming coach but they opted for experience, controversially signing Griffin, who had won 100 from 183 matches in charge of Brisbane and Penrith over the course of nearly seven seasons, just shy of a 55% success rate.
St George Illawarra’s lopsided roster of past-their-prime veterans and young prospects was always going to struggle whoever was in the coach’s hot seat so Young probably dodged a bullet.
His father, club legend Craig Young, is the board chairman and wisely abstained from the coaching selection process – if Dean had been appointed and the losses kept coming, there would have been an outcry of nepotism from disgruntled fans.
The results under Griffin have been middling – they finished 11th last year and are on track to repeat the feat this season as the bottom team on for-and-against in a four-way tie for eighth after last Friday’s upset win over Manly.
Their Kogarah clash with the second-placed Cowboys on Sunday is not a must-win encounter but a loss will be a massive blow to any prospect of sneaking into the playoffs.
So there is still some hope, albeit fleeting, for this season so there’s no way Griffin will be ousted any time soon.
Whether his time comes to an end this season or next, it’s possible that he would have fulfilled a role for the club in, at least partly, steadying the ship.
Apart from the Storm who have had Craig Bellamy calling the shots for two decades, several teams that have won the title in that timeframe have had an in-between coach who had restored the club from cellar-dwellers to some semblance of respectability before someone else came in to take them to the top.
Griffin himself did the job at Penrith before Ivan Cleary. Brian Smith did likewise at the Roosters before Trent Robinson took over in 2013 with immediate success.
Neil Henry was that coach for the Cowboys before Paul Green, while Jason Taylor and John Lang turned Souths from laughing stock to top-eight contenders prior to Michael Maguire’s arrival.
Apart from the not insignificant factor of a lack of victories, the main gripe from Dragons fans about Griffin is his preference for veterans ahead of rising stars, particularly halfback Jayden Sullivan and fullback Tyrell Sloan, while Junior Amone was relegated to the bench for a month earlier in the season before getting an extended run at five-eighth.
Sullivan has been beset by injury, out again for another couple of weeks at the moment with a shoulder complaint.
Dragons coach Anthony Griffin. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Griffin has repeatedly said the young trio are not ready for the physical demands and mental grind of the week-to-week NRL season, claiming it would be detrimental to persist with them as it could dent their confidence long term.
This could also turn out to be true.
There have been many players, particularly smaller ones like these three, over the past few years who have been thrown into the first-grade fire too soon and never recovered.
It’s not an exact science. Some never recover while the experience of being put into the top grade before a player is ready can lead to their development being fast-tracked.
Tom Dearden is an example of one young playmaker who was dropped from first grade by the Broncos last year and allowed to leave mid-season to join the Cowboys.
Cowboys coach Todd Payten placed his trust in him this season and he’s arguably the most improved player in the NRL and produced one of the best Origin debuts in recent times when he filled in at five-eighth for the Maroons in their victory in the series decider.
(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Roosters halfback Sam Walker was another teenager given a lot more game time than expected last year who has continued to develop on the path towards star status in 2022.
St George Illawarra’s problems with their ageing roster should disappear by the end of next year with Josh McGuire and Tariq Sims already signed elsewhere for 2023, although Aaron Woods and George Burgess will still potentially be at the club.
The deals for veteran hooker Andrew McCullough, who has given decent service, and utility Moses Mbye also come off the books at the end of next season so there should be wriggle room for the Dragons to upgrade their young talent and add key recruits.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
And let me reinforce that none of this is to say my view is Griffin has necessarily done a good job or that it was the right decision to appoint him.
But sometimes the inconvenient truth is coaches can be placeholders before the right one comes along.
The Dragons have missed out on Craig Fitzgibbon and Cameron Ciraldo in recent times and a more efficient rebuild could have been kick-started a year or two earlier.
After they have recorded just one paltry playoff win over the past decade, they need to make sure whoever they next appoint is a coach who can take them back into premiership contention.