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Opinion
The closeness of Rugby Championship 2022 puts teams in the southern hemisphere on alert about two aspects that are often thought of as opposing.
These points are: squad depth and planning for the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
Focusing on Argentina and Australia, we see that both teams are experiencing similar urgencies in terms of the need to obtain results, improve the game and explore the depth of the squads.
During the mid-year Internationals both had the opportunity to explore two lines of work (Wallabies, Pumas and the Australia A and Argentina XV teams).
They will clash twice in Argentina starting on August 6, and will put in place the mechanisms to get the best out of the Rugby Championship.
If we were to benchmark performances, we would see that the two teams have met 18 times in the Rugby Championship with mixed fortunes, but with a winning average that favours the Wallabies by seven points.
The margin is narrow considering the history of the Wallabies.
But if we structure a ‘Forecast’ statistical function based on the results of the Rugby Championship, it would give the Wallabies the winner by 14 points on next August 6.
I think that the interesting thing would be to evaluate both teams comparatively based on the last 3 friendly matches in July.
In terms of productivity in attack, the Wallabies have shown a better face against England than Argentina could show against Scotland.
Although the demands imposed by the rivals were different, we see that Australia presented a better ratio of attacks / breaks.
On average, 26.5 per cent of Wallabies’ attacks generated breaks versus 25 per cent from Los Pumas. But when arriving within 22 M of the opponent, Wallabies made a difference with a 28% effectiveness in the ratio Visit 22 M Opp/ Tries Scored against 25% of Los Puma
Attack metrics anticipate an interesting clash. In the unstructured attack, an immediate consequence of the change in status in the game, Argentina was better positioned than Australia, converting, on average, three more points for each turnover won.
Regarding these instances of the game, the clip below shows us the importance of generating opportunities from unstructured play, which is one of the high points of Los Pumas.
Both teams showed a performance mostly inclined towards the expansive game, marking differences in terms of Possession kicked. It was higher on Wallabies but less effective against the opponent.
In this sense, the Pumas presented a better kicking game than Wallabies, since they kicked less but generated more errors in the opponent’s reception.
This is what some metrics allow us to visualise from the friendly matches in July.
If we approach the evaluations from the point of view of the cohesion studies and the composition of the squads named for RugbyChampionship, we can see that the average number of caps per player of Los Pumas is higher than that of the Wallabies (36 vs 27), which shows the intensity of Dave Rennie’s commitment to the young talent, calling 26 players with less than 30 caps and four uncapped.
Both teams have the same urgencies but different types of pressure. If Argentina wants to neutralise Australia it must fine-tune the basic and advanced execution of the scrum, ruck and defense. Also eliminate handling errors in attack situations (23) and penalties in the breakdown (19).
This is the basis for sustaining a tactical project that will lead Los Pumas to develop a dynamic, fast game that is increasingly attack-oriented.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.