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With a six-point lead on the NRL ladder and star halves Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai unavailable across the final five weeks of the home-and-away season, the Penrith Panthers face an awkward month ahead and a potential turning point in their season.
In the quest for a rare repeat premiership, the men from the foot of the mountains have taken all before them in 2022, just as they did in the two seasons prior, collectively winning 56 of 63 regular season matches across that period.
Despite the disappointment of a runner-up finish in 2020 when the Storm did what the Storm do all so well in what was a stunning grand final, Ivan Cleary’s men made amends the following season, exorcising the demons and prevailing over the Bunnies by 14-12 in the decider.
2022 loomed as another likely minor premiership for the team with the most dominant record of recent times and the narrative played as many expected across the opening 20 weeks of the current campaign.
Yet with the home-and-away finish line in sight and the team cruising into a finals campaign where they would enter every match as clear favourites, the speed bumps and stumbling blocks have now appeared in spades.
(Photo by Joshua Davis/Getty Images)
All teams suffer injuries at crucial times during NRL seasons, yet thanks to Cleary’s brain explosion and dangerous tackle on Dylan Brown and the serious knee injury suffered by Luai, the Panthers have lost two of the most important cogs in their attacking wheel.
Sure, there is plenty of talent across the park to potentially hold the fort whilst the two halves occupy the pine and prepare for a return in Week 1 of the NRL finals, yet there is a fair question to be asked around the extended squad’s effectiveness without them.
Will the Panthers simply remain the systematic and brutal force that has taken all before them over the last three seasons, or will the extended absence of the two men who are so fundamental to their success translate into a significantly weakened Penrith and subsequently lead to a sputtering entry into the finals?
In essence, the question becomes whether the systemic machine that Ivan Cleary has built in the west is sustainable, despite the absence of his son and a significant other.
The two men coming in to fill the vacated roles are quality young players. Jaeman Salmon slots in at five-eighth as something of a utility player yet to firmly establish himself as an NRL starter, and Dolphins-bound Sean O’Sullivan assumes the halfback position left bare by Cleary.
With limited experience in the halves for both at the top level, the Panthers will no doubt be required to lean on others if they are to successfully navigate the final five weeks of the season without suffering too much damage, or worse, forgoing their position at the top of the ladder.
However, the best coaches plan for contingencies. They build clubs from the ground up and develop something of a one man out, one man in culture that serves them well in challenging periods.
We have seen exactly that from the Panthers at various times across the last three years, where Origin representation and injury concerns have rarely derailed their progress.
Penrith is an elite environment where the young kid promoted as a replacement understands the offensive calls used in the top grade and fits comfortably into the defensive structures that Cleary has implemented right across the NRL’s most impressive club.
Admittedly, the talent of the men stepping in is well below that of the players absent, yet modern thinking in professional sport is that an effective ‘system’ overrides the necessity for individuals alone to win matches.
In essence, barring mass injuries or unavailability, Ivan Cleary will no doubt believe that he has created a way, a culture and a method, within which every available player feels comfortable stepping in to and therefore capable of maintaining the level of excellence he demands.
Upcoming matches against the Storm, Rabbitohs and Cowboys will test that belief in spades and should any drop off in form occur, Penrith will be under the pump to right the ship immediately in the first week of the finals.
It will be an interesting watch, with the obviously firm foundations of the Penrith system tested by the absence of two of its biggest stars.
Will the dam wall hold, or are the losses of Cleary and Luai simply too much to overcome?