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Opinion
The Spring Carnival is coming quickly and The Mounting Yard is back in action! Over the next few weeks, we will be giving out our best bets around the country (with a focus on Melbourne) and as the main Spring Carnival days come, I’ll be providing race by race analysis in both Melbourne and Sydney. Let’s find some winners!
RACE 4 #2 BUFFALO RIVER – $6.50
His best is the best in this race and I was happy with the way he came back after a quick freshen in the P.B Lawrence when it took Mr Brightside and I am Superman to beat him, who are both Group Two level horses at the worst.
His record at Caulfield is brilliant (7:2-3-1) which is a big tick, and his best ratings are peaking over this distance, which his record suggests (17:6-6-2).
The wide gate doesn’t hold many concerns personally as he is naturally the fastest horse in the race and there doesn’t look to be too much pace in the race which should allow him to glide across and either lead or settle on speed.
The 3kg claim from Logan McNeil brings him right down in the weights (carrying only 3kg over the minimum) and it should hopefully be enough for him to hold them off late when he will need to dig in.
RACE 7 #7 PASSIVE AGRRESSIVE – $2.60
Happy to take the shorter type odds for this this mare who is undefeated after four starts. She continues to go from strength to strength and her last two starts have been very impressive.
She beat Dragonstone with ease down the straight at Flemington who is a talented type, before stepping up to Listed grade in the Creswick Stakes when beating another very progressive type in Star Patrol when smashing the clock.
She’s been let-up for ten weeks since that and has trialled like Phar Lap at Cranbourne when putting 4.5 Lengths on some good horses in Forgot You and and Lightsaber who are Group Class animals.
She draws perfectly today (6) to either lead or sit on the speed and the race shape sits up perfectly for her considering Jump the Broom will lead and she will have a lovely trail into the race. She could be an absolute superstar and if she is, the $2.60 could look value after the race.
RACE 8 #2 CASCADIAN – $8/#12 TOFANE – $7
Happy to play around these two in the first Group One of the Melbourne Spring. CASCADIAN has turned into a consistent Group one level athlete in his last few preparations.
Last time he was first-up he went super on the wrong part of the track in the Group One C.F Orr Stakes over this track and distance when finishing 1.7 Lengths away from Tofane. That was a very high rating race and it set the tone for the rest of his preparation as he went on to win the Group One All Aged Stakes in Sydney.
He hasn’t ever trialled as good as he did at Warwick Farm in the lead up to this first-up assignment when finishing under a length off Anamoe. He draws perfectly (7) to sit somewhere around midfield off the fence and His best is probably the best this race can offer outside of the Western Australian.
TOFANE brings in very similar form from last preparation. She was terrific in that first-up win at Group One level, before following Cascadian up to Sydney in what was an unlucky second.
There’s no reason she can’t bring that form here again and she is proven at this track and distance first-up at this level. She draws perfectly (3) to get the absolute run of the race and there won’t be any excuses for her. Gets in well at the weights and is over the odds at the $7 quote.
RACE 9 #9 JIMMY THE BEAR – $5
This bloke has been placed perfectly this preparation and there’s no exception here with him competing against either stayers or a horse who isn’t at this level.
Two runs back he won in impressive fashion after travelling three wide and without cover in the run over the mile at the Valley. He then stepped up in grade at this track over a mile and was brilliant again when beating a Group performer in So Si Bon.
The wide gate isn’t concerning (11) as there is absolutely no speed on in this race and he should be able to just drift across without spending too many petrol tickets.
He gets in very well at the weights carrying 54kg (considering the main danger is carrying 58kgs) and he has the race fitness on his side that the others who are resuming don’t which is exactly half the field. Think it’s the case of right race at the right time for this guy today.
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