Opinion
Super Saturday has long been a special day in the Sydney spring carnival, always highlighted by the Epsom and Metropolitan handicaps. What a feature of Australian racing these big Group 1 handicaps are.
Before the Everest came along, Super Saturday was the pinnacle of racing in Sydney at this time of year, but we know how things have changed since the invention of that race and the Golden Eagle.
The Epsom this year hasn’t attracted the big field that we’re used to from the big mile handicaps at Randwick, but it’s no less an intriguing affair for it, with several chances bringing in quality form lines.
Icebath is the favourite in the early part of the week, a mare that has won only one race in the last two years, which was a weak invitational, but has picked her way through the Sydney riches remarkably well.
She’s been placed at Group 1 (or equivalent) six times, including in some of the biggest races in the country, most of them at 1600 metres. She holds her form well into a prep, enjoys wet ground and finished less than a length behind Anamoe last start. Is it her time?
Another mare, Hinged, could be the biggest danger. This race has been owned by four-year-olds for a long time, including a certain stablemate of Hinged’s called Winx. She was half a length behind Icebath in the George Main, beat her home in the Winx Stakes and meets her 2.5 kilograms better for those meetings.
Hinged also loves wet ground; can be ridden forward or back, which gives Kerrin McEvoy options from Barrier 9; and is peaking at the right time. The market has it wrong, as she should be favourite.
Fangirl and Converge also come out of the George Main. Both of them finished behind Hinged and Icebath and neither is likely to turn the tables on a heavy track, which we surely will get. Neither of them likes it much.
Nimalee was less than a length off Icebath two starts back when they both chased Zaaki and is backing up after a fighting win in the Golden Pendant last week. She’s won a Group 1 on a bottomless Randwick track, so that holds no fears, and is rock-hard racing fit two months into her prep. She’s overs at the $13 mark.
Pippali also backs up from last week, where she gave Nimalee a fright at $81. She’ll start similar on Saturday and deserves to be seen again but is one that may catch us by surprise with her improvement as a new season five-year-old.
A horse with big claims to the race is Top Ranked. He’s only had three starts in this country, running exceptionally well behind Lost and Running (who’s second favourite for the Everest), Verry Elleegant (11 time Group 1 winner), and a dominant win in the Bill Ritchie last start.
(Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Top Ranked carries the No. 1 saddlecloth but not with a hefty weight and is shouldering only 5.5 kilograms above the minimum. He drips with class and is right in the reckoning from a cosy draw.
Cross Talk was all the rage in the Bill Ritchie, jumping at $2.50 but unable to match motors with Top Ranked. He now meets that horse 1.5 kilograms worse for that defeat but might be able to turn the tables on heavy ground given his wet track credentials.
Ellsberg and Kiku squared off in the Theo Marks three weeks ago, with not much between them. Kiku came from the clouds to win that race, but loses a weight advantage out of it. Ellsberg always runs well and is a gun on heavy tracks but has never quite been able to win at a mile.
This race is unlikely to be hectically run and the conditions underfoot will have as much of a say as luck in running or ability and form.
Selections: 1. Hinged, 2. Nimalee, 3. Icebath, 4. Top Ranked.
The Metropolitan has become a Group 1 in name only over recent seasons, and this year’s collection of hardy stayers further endorses that point of view, with barely a progressive one between them.
Durston is the favourite, one of five Chris Waller horses in the field, assuming Surefire and Francesco Guardi run at Flemington instead, as the stable has indicated.
Durston is actually still improving, despite being seven, given he’s only had 14 starts. He’s won two Country Cups at his last two starts and raced away with the prize at Newcastle a fortnight ago. He’s never seen a bottomless track and might get one on Saturday.
Carif, Arapaho, Sacramento and Mankayan chased Durston at Newcastle and will need things in their favour to turn the tables. Carif and Sacramento prefer to be on top of the ground, so that’s them done, while Makayan has three heavy-track wins and Arapaho has a seven-length win on the heavy to his name. It puts them in the conversation.
No Compromise has had a fantastic 12 months and has really been racing well despite not always being given every chance by his jockeys. But he did get his win in the autumn – funny how all the Waller horses seem to get one when they race against each other.
He ploughs through the mud, as he did in the Chelmsford two starts back, showing he was right on target for this type of assignment on the right ground. He’s double figures right now but is the one they all have to beat.
Most of the rest of these have been racing against each other in some way, shape or form over the years. Le Don De Vie might be the hardest to beat of that bunch, with form around solid stayers through his career. He’s only seen heavy ground once and skipped through it for a big win back in July. He’ll be ready to improve here.
Hameron is clearly the fascinating runner. He’s found himself in a Group 1 despite being unable to win at benchmark 78 and 88 level this prep and hasn’t raced past 2100 metres but is the youngest and most lightly raced horse in the field. He’s been seen as a young stayer of promise from the beginning and loves the wet, so let’s hope he measures up.
Selections: 1. No Compromise, 2. Hameron, 3. Durston, 4. Le Don De Vie.
The Flight Stakes is the other Group 1 race on the Randwick card, bringing together the brightest three-year-old filly prospects to clash over 1600 metres.
Fireburn and She’s Extreme met four times as two-year-olds and ran the quinella on three of those occasions. They also clashed last week in the Golden Rose, and while there’s not been much between them all the way through, Fireburn does hold a 4-1 advantage. The kink of it is the only time they met at a mile was the time She’s Extreme proved too strong.
No-one missed Fireburn’s run in the Golden Rose last week, darting her way through the field to finish fifth, and she’s entitled to be favourite here off the back of it. Every year there is no better form for three-year-olds than the Golden Rose.
The more traditional path for fillies into this race is the Princess Series, including the Silver Shadow, Furious and Tea Rose Stakes.
Zougotcha has been the pick of the crop in that regard, winning both the Silver Shadow and Tea Rose. She had to fight all the way to beat stablemate Madame Pommery last start, North Star Lass has been around the mark and Wolverine has kept catching the eye and giving the impression she’ll relish 1600 metres more than any of them.
Selections: 1. Fireburn, 2. She’s Extreme, 3. Wolverine, 4. Zougotcha.
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