Opinion
Caulfield Guineas day is one of the best raceday’s in the country, with three Group 1’s and a support card of top quality.
The big three-year-old races have certainly changed complexion throughout this season so far.
Kibou was the early Golden Rose favourite before going amiss, Jacquinot won the Golden Rose but has chosen the Everest rather than the Guineas, and Aft Cabin was a strong Guineas favourite before bleeding and having to be spelled.
So where does that leave us?
The Golden Rose in Sydney is almost always the strongest reference for three-year-old’s. It attracts an elite field, and the form coming out of it can be trusted. We had our first taste of it last week when She’s Extreme and Fireburn, sixth and fifth in the Golden Rose two weeks ago, backed up into the Flight Stakes and ran second and fourth respectively behind Zougotcha.
Those two fillies were quite well beaten though, so it might be that the Golden Rose form isn’t quite as strong this year as it usually is.
Golden Mile is a firm favourite in this year, having run a very solid fourth in the Golden Rose. A lot of the field, with the winner Jacquinot excluded, finished about where they settled in the run. Not many particularly caught the eye, but Golden Mile’s form had been decent coming in.
He’s a professional colt, as we expect from the Godolphin yard, he comes through traditionally good lead-ups, and has drawn to absolute perfection to get the run of the race. He’ll be tough to run down, but is far from unbeatable.
Millane is the other Golden Rose runner, having finished eighth in that event, plugging away in the straight without making much impression.
Osipenko is an interesting runner, that also brings Sydney form. He ran a close second to Kibou, giving him weight, back in June, and on debut blitzed a filly called Madam Pommery – she ran second in the Tea Rose behind Zougotcha. He ran in the Guineas Prelude, which was run in a blizzard, and gave up the ghost with mud getting kicked in his face. If you can forgive it, he’s in the game.
What to make of that Guineas Prelude? It was frankly run in unsafe conditions, Aft Cabin won by four lengths and isn’t here, jockeys reported being unable to see, and most horses were just trying to get through unscathed. It was run on a deteriorating heavy, and we might be facing something similar on Saturday depending on what the Melbourne weather does between now and then.
Meridius and Amenable both found the line beautifully once allowed to gallop safely, and seemed to relish the conditions, or could it be they were flattered after all the energy conserved? Their previous form suggested they were nice horses, without screaming they could win a Guineas.
Sir Bailey and Lethal Thoughts finished down the track in that Prelude, but like Osipenko can be forgiven.
Tijuana, Berkeley Square, Bank Maur, Foujita San, Elliptical and The Fortune Teller have all been racing against variations of each other this prep.
Berkeley Square is the pick of these, and a strong second favourite in the race. He’s only been beaten by one horse in his career, and she’s the favourite for the Thousand Guineas. He’s won from the front, and the back, and his win last start was as visually impressive as it gets, scything through the field against the odds.
Only two and a half lengths covered the first seven home in that race won by Berkeley Square, the Exford Plate. Among them was Tijuana, who has since taken out the Stutt Stakes, which is usually the B-form when it comes to the Guineas. Many would say Foujita San was just as good a run given how the Valley played that night, and he’s double the odds.
Elliptical was about a length and a half behind Berkeley Square in the Exford Plate, and the same again as favourite behind Bank Maur. The Fortune Teller was thereabouts.
It’s been a funny season so far, a mixture of good and heavy tracks in both Melbourne and Sydney, and some of the best horses not in the race. If ever the Guineas was set for an upset, it’s 2022.
Selections: 1.Osipenko 2.Golden Mile 3.Berkeley Square 4.Amenable
(Brett Holburt/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
This is the best Might and Power field we have seen in at least 20 years, with the four Cox Plate favourites lining up to test each other out, and some more quality gallopers besides.
Anamoe is the favourite, having collected two Group 1 wins from two starts in Sydney this campaign. He was a month between runs in those wins, and is a month between runs again after pulling up mildly lame from the George Main Stakes.
It could be a little query, but Godolphin wouldn’t take any chances with such a valuable commodity unless he was 110% right.
Alligator Blood, Mo’unga, Zaaki, I’m Thunderstruck, Mr Brightside and Nonconformist took each other on in the Underwood Stakes a fortnight ago, finishing in that order. Only one length covered the first four home.
They went so slowly in the Underwood that Alligator Blood was most advantaged, which he used to record a dogged win. Zaaki went too slowly, and surely if Jamie Kah had her time again she might have applied more pressure or taken up the lead herself to run at a stronger gallop. It was a similar mistake made by Craig Williams when he got Zaaki beaten in this race last year.
I’m Thunderstruck had no hope of winning from where he was given how slowly the race was run, but looked like he was storming home for most of the straight before peaking, and Mo’unga went straight past him. Did he not quite get 1800m, and therefore 2000m is also beyond him? It’s hard to believe with Melbourne Cup winner Shocking as his sire.
Mo’unga loved being on a dry deck again, but is very unlikely to get it on Saturday. Mr Brightside looked like he lacked the class of those that beat him home, but deserves another chance now that he should be at full fitness to display his wares.
Benaud provides a little x-factor and point of difference, as the fresh horse on the scene. He missed a run in Sydney last week, but has displayed a touch of quality in his time. He’s not out of place.
Alligator Blood should lead again, although Zaaki could take up the running too. I’m Thunderstruck will try and position closer, Anamoe draws to get a dream, and Mr Brightside will also have every chance.
Selections: 1.Zaaki 2.Anamoe 3.I’m Thunderstruck 4.Mr Brightside
How good is Caulfield racing? (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)
All eyes will be on the Toorak late in the day at Caulfield, to see if I Wish I Win can continue on his winning ways and perhaps add a fresh dimension to the Cox Plate. We will have a guide to that race after the established weight-for-age stars clash two races earlier in the Might and Power.
I Wish I Win has been dominant in his two wins for Peter Moody this campaign. He spanked a handy field at Flemington first-up, powering home off a strong tempo, to set tongues wagging.
While his second-up win wasn’t as dominant in the margins, he was dropping back 100m in distance, copped some buffeting in the straight, was on his back foot when the race was heating up, yet still picking himself up to win as softly as you will see for a one length victory. It was seriously impressive, and gave every indication there is more to come.
Can anything beat him?
Gentleman Roy is one that could, despite finishing four lengths behind the favourite two starts back. He is third-up now, much fitter, and coming off a good win. If he can avoid getting caught in a speed battle with horses like Buffalo River or Military Expert, he can pinch a break at some stage and be tough to get past.
Tuvalu is another on-speed runner who has excellent form around him, and is remarkably similar to Gentleman Roy in his racing style and consistent record. He’s there to win.
Dalasan can run a race at big odds, and it wouldn’t surprise to see him get a deserved Group 1. Pinstriped will be winning a race soon, and it could be this one. He’s got quality enough. Uncle Bryn split Smokin’ Romans and Gold Trip in the Naturalism last start, form that got franked in the Turnbull Stakes last week. He’s a player too.
Selections: 1.I Wish I Win 2.Dalasan 3.Pinstriped 4.Gentleman Roy
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