Opinion
The sixth running of The Everest is upon us, and we can’t deny that it’s the weakest edition yet.
The problem with The Everest was always going to be when there was an outstanding dominant sprinter. It’s a concept that couldn’t have been launched when Black Caviar was around, for instance. What this race has always needed is competition, and it has certainly had that in abundance.
Nature Strip is the supreme equine sprinting athlete in the country, and in fact the world. While he has never been unbeatable, remembering that he has lost at least one race in every preparation he’s had, it does appear as if he is becoming that way.
He’s now won seven of his last 10 starts, with one of those being a nose after missing the start in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes earlier this year. His winning margins are also getting bigger – his last four wins have been by an average of more than three lengths, which is a big margin in sprint races against some of the fastest horses in the world.
Nature Strip is still maturing and racing more tractably, even as an eight-year-old. It used to be that he had to lead at all costs, but he has proven in the last 12 months that he can sit behind a leader, race handy without being involved in the speed battle, or even settle back and still work his way into a race if he misses the start.
So, that’s our odds-on favourite. Maybe you’ll get black figures on the day. It could be easy money. Can anyone beat him?
James McDonald on Nature Strip salutes after winning The Everest at Royal Randwick Racecourse. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Eduardo has met Nature Strip four times at the Randwick 1200m, and has finished behind him all four times. It’s hard to see him finally turning the tables, clashing in The Everest for the third time as they are.
Lost and Running is the second favourite, and has been building beautifully over the last 12 months. He ran fourth in this race last year, beaten two lengths, and is a better horse this time around. He won the Premiere Stakes last start on a heavy track, but is much more suited on dry ground – the firmer the track on Saturday, the more likely he is to knock off the favourite.
Masked Crusader made a thrilling race of the 2021 Everest, coming from a mile back to weave his way through the field and almost nail Nature Strip on the line.
It’s been over 12 months since he won, but it looks like he’s almost back to that form now. Hopefully he can reproduce another performance like last year.
William Pike riding Masked Crusader winning Race 7, the Keogh Homes William Reid Stakes (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)
Mazu is one of the up-and-comers in the field, making his name as a three-year-old earlier this year by cutting a swathe through the autumn on those bottomless tracks. He’s been beaten by a few rivals here already this prep, but hasn’t yet run on a really wet track – the more bottomless it is, the shorter his odds should be.
Private Eye is one of the more interesting runners in Everest history, given he is one of very few that isn’t a specialist sprinter. He’s won an Epsom and Queensland Guineas over 1600m, and even raced competitively at 2000m. He went off like a bomb down the Flemington straight first-up, beating good horses to command a slot here, and won’t let anyone down.
Overpass has gradually come of age this year, splitting Nature Strip and Lost and Running first-up in the Shorts, and also finished in front of Anamoe in the Expressway back in January. He’s probably a couple of lengths off the best horses at the moment, but may be laying a down-payment on a future Everest this week.
Ingratiating has taken his time turning his juvenile form, where he placed in both a Golden Slipper and Blue Diamond, into something that can be competitive at the highest level as an older horse. He’s only won once in his last 10 starts, not even at Group level, but looks like he’s perhaps ready to fulfill his potential after winning first-up and running stylishly in the Schillaci last week at Caulfield.
Trekking bounced off that race to run third in the Everest for Godolophin a few years back, and if nothing else Ingratiating will handle the high pressure and enjoy the step up to 1200m.
Joyful Fortune and Shades of Rose, the last of the older horses, appear to be making up the numbers. The former is a Hong Kong galloper of moderate reputation that will need to find a good 6-8 lengths tackling 1200m for the first time, while Shades of Rose is talented but has been up for a long time and never faced this class of horse or this sort of pressure.
Can the three-year-olds make an impact?
Jacquinot’s victory in the Golden Rose will take some beating as the best win of the season. My goodness, the way he attacked the line was something to behold. The form has been franked already, with Golden Mile behind him taking out the Caulfield Guineas.
(Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Can Jacquinot reproduce that sort of finish against this field, on wet ground instead of good? It’s a tough ask for the colt, and barrier two probably doesn’t help his chances either.
Giga Kick is having just his fifth start, having won his first four, and now tackles the best of the best. His last two wins have been at Group level against his own age, and the form around him is pretty good. We’re certainly going to find out how good he is, and any weight-for-age race is always better for having the younger horses in it.
The speed map should be easy for most people to work out. Eduardo and Nature Strip will come across from wide gates, Joyful Fortune will push up from the inside, and Shades of Rose will be prominent. Mazu and Overpass will also be up there jostling for position.
Masked Crusader will snag back, Jacquinot will also have a look at them from near the tail, and the rest will be looking for cover midfield and worse, while looking for the right back to follow.
Selections: 1.Nature Strip 2.Lost and Running 3.Masked Crusader 4.Private Eye
The main support races to The Everest are the Sydney Stakes and The Kosciuszko, also over 1200m and with their own storylines.
Apache Chase looks awfully hard to beat in the Sydney Stakes, having just finished in and amongst a handful of Everest runners last start in the Premiere. He’s a good animal.
It’s hard to go past It’s Me for her second Kosciuszko, now that she’s back in form following a long injury lay-off and an autumn campaign that was needed to learn some racecraft again. The question for her is whether the track will allow backmarkers their chance.
There’s plenty of other good races besides.
Cascadian looks the anchor of the day in the Craven Plate.
You can throw a blanket over half a dozen good chances in the Silver Eagle, but track condition and pattern will be required to sort that one out closer to the start time.
Ellsberg and Ayrton do look to have a stranglehold on the Five Diamonds prelude as the clear class of the field.
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