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Opinion

Golden Eagle 2022: preview and tips

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26th October, 2022
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What a Golden Eagle we’ve got this year – and that’s before we even get to the actual race.

Controversy reigned this week when actions were taken to allow the Chris Waller import Welwal to take his place in the field.

The horse’s rating was bumped up and the field was expanded from 18 to 20 to ensure he could make the cut. Another mitigating factor was the fact that internationally renowned jockey Frankie Dettori had been booked.

Anyway, no point letting these questionable actions detract from what has quickly become one of the best races on the calendar.

Victoria took out last year’s Golden Eagle with I’m Thunderstruck and are attacking the race with big numbers again this year. Eight of the confirmed 20 runners are from stables down south and another three have been campaigning or had their last start down there.

The Toorak Handicap, won by I’m Thunderstruck before his Golden Eagle victory, has five runners presenting from the race.

I Wish I Win was the hot favourite in that event after two impressive wins in the early spring but couldn’t get the job done after settling back in the field. The question of whether he can run a strong mile lingers, and dropping back to 1500 metres for this race can only be in his favour.

Military Expert ran third in the Toorak, beaten by less than a length and just in front of I Wish I Win after riding the speed. He’d have been in great form but flopped at the Valley last start riding a hot speed and probably lacks the class.

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Pinstriped was a fast-finishing sixth coming from near last and just keeps running well without winning, but the barrier gods haven’t been kind to him here. He’s going to have to almost circle them all again, a tough ask in such a quality field.

Converge and Hilal ran down the track in the Toorak and have been out of form all season. The form from that race looks okay after Laws of Indices, second in it, ran so well in the Cox Plate last week.

Chain of Lightning, in just her second campaign, has been impressing in mares grade and is the owner of six wins from seven starts. Each win is more impressive than the last, so we don’t know where her ceiling is yet, and she is one of the favourites for a reason.

Close up of a horse

(Image byJackieLou DL via Pixabay)

Lavish Girl actually beat Chain of Lightning home in her only defeat, but that was on a heavily deteriorating track, while we are going to be on an improving one on Saturday. Lavish Girl then finished midfield in the Silver Eagle, with Vilana and Mr Mozart going straight past her.

Lady of Honour has also been running well in mares races in Victoria, with a couple of Group 2 placings, and can certainly give a sight at $71. Lightsaber has been hacking around in some lower class Melbourne races and can’t be entertained.

The first emergency, who is now in the field due to the scratching of Brigantine, is Cardinel Gem. Similar to Chain of Lightning, he is improving with a bullet but was in benchmark 70 grade only two starts back. He graduated from that to black type with a lovely win at Caulfield last time out, but this is different gravy. Is he ready for this level?

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Looking at the Sydney form, the Silver Eagle should be the key focus, so it’s unusual to only see three horses from it fronting up. One of them, Lavish Girl, we’ve already touched on.

Vilana took out that race by a widening two lengths and looked really good doing it. He showed his class at various stages as a three-year-old but has come up with the widest barrier. He’ll need a gem from Nash Rawiller.

Mr Mozart has become one of the most honest horses in work after losing his way for a while there. He makes his own luck by going forward, handles all conditions and is always there asking the question of his rivals. He’ll be jumping from the machines out wide too, which hurts his chances.

Chris Waller loves chasing the Epsom with his four-year-old mares, which is what he was attempting to do with Hinged and Fangirl this year.

A close up of a grey horse

(Photo by Olga Gasheva via Unsplash)

Fangirl’s chances went out the door with a heavy track, so every ray of sunshine hitting Rosehill this week helps her. Hinged enjoys wet tracks and ran a game third but was beaten by two better horses on the day. These two will also jump from wide gates and have to rely on luck. Both are winning chances if they get it.

Overpass has been tackling the best of the best this prep, chasing horses like Nature Strip and Lost and Running and being beaten by less than three lengths in the Everest. No-one in this race has been taking on company like it. The distance of 1500 metres is the test for him. Frankly, if he can run it, he will win.

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In The Congo was beaten by a 60-1 shot in the Sydney Stakes first up. His class, as a Golden Rose winner and Galaxy placegetter with a big weight at three, isn’t in question, and he’s one of the main chances that has drawn kindly. He’ll be up on the speed, if not setting it himself, and it will take a good one to get past him at level weights against his own age.

Gypsy Goddess is an interesting runner, first up after winning Queensland Oaks in June. She ran third to Fangirl and Hinged over 1850 metres earlier this year, albeit well held. It’s hard to see her winning.

Hope in Your Heart is similar to the aforementioned Cardinel Gem in some way except a Sydney version of him. She keeps winning, graduating from restricted grade to Group level this campaign, and she can be right in the finish if she improves again.

Then we get to the two imports, Light Infantry and Welwal. Both have been transferred to all-conquering stables in Maher/Eustace and Waller respectively.

Light Infantry has only had five career starts yet is the favourite here after two close-up Group 1 placings in France. The horses that beat him in those races, Inspiral and Tenebrism, are serious racers. But he has to do it off the plane and with a jockey that is riding at Rosehill for the first time on Saturday. Still, he’s drawn well enough to get every chance.

Welwal’s French form is inferior to Light Infantry, yet he has had the benefit of two trials in Sydney to prepare him for this mission. Jockey Dettori is also riding at Rosehill for the first time. We’ll see if the pair are good enough to cash the $5 million cheque for first place.

In such a big field there are plenty of horses that like to go forwards, and when you’re racing for $10 million of prize money, the pressure will be right on. You’ll need to be a big-hearted horse to be racing up front and holding on, or you’ll need stamina and a turn of foot if coming from the back.

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Selections: 1. I Wish I Win, 2. Chain of Lightning, 3. Light Infantry, 4. In the Congo

Nature Strip Stakes

The Winners Stakes, named after the previous year’s Everest winner, is the key support race on the Golden Eagle program.

Five horses than ran in the Everest are here to take each other on again, and to that number we can add Lost and Running, who was sadly scratched from the big one on the day of the race due to some lameness.

Lost and Running would have won the Everest given where he had drawn and the way the race panned out. If he is 100 per cent fit – and you’d like to think the stable wouldn’t present him at the races otherwise – then he is simply the one to beat. He has trialled since missing the Everest, so match fitness shouldn’t be an issue.

Private Eye was second in the Everest, with Mazu third. It’s form that stands up every year and can be trusted every year. They are the obvious dangers, and this is not a race that needs to be overthought. You can certainly make a strong case that Private Eye is the most suited of this trio by the step up to 1300 metres.

Eduardo won this race last year but hasn’t quite been himself as his campaign has progressed despite winning first up. He’s a nine-year-old now, and the challengers keep coming, but he’ll have far less pressure to deal with than the Everest, which puts him in the game.

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Masked Crusader is a betting proposition to some given enough value but is the last horse in Australia you’d have your final dollar on. He’s a pass.

Selections: 1. Lost and Running, 2. Private Eye, 3. Mazu, 4. Eduardo

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