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Opinion
Watching the Melbourne Cup is always a special feeling, particularly for those of us who are born and bred in Victoria. It’s a part of who we are.
It’s unAustralian to not have a bet in the Cup, even if it just takes place in the form of a sweep in the office, or at home with a gathering of friends or family.
Last year’s winner, Verry Elleegant, saluted and paid $16 for the win. Twilight Payment, who won in 2020, was 25-1. Who can forget Michelle Payne steering Prince of Penzance to victory at 100-1?
It really is a race that any horse can win on the day, with the right jockey and the right run.
We all love backing the winner, and even finding a place-getter can be a thrill. Look at Makybe Diva’s three Melbourne Cups for instance. In 2003, the two placegetters were both 40-1. In 2004, Zazzman ran third at 100-1. And in 2005 we saw On a Jeune run second at 70-1.
A $10 place bet on any of those horses would have collected much more than a win bet on the legendary mare. The lesson: don’t be afraid to have an each-way flutter at big odds!
But if we want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, we have to look at the exotic bets.
The most common types of exotic bets are quinella (first two horses in any order), exacta (first two horses in exact order), trifecta (first three horses) and first four (first four horses).
You can place these bets for whatever percentage of the collect you like. You might have a bet that returns nine per cent – that way, if the dividend is $1000, you will collect $90.
Quinella
The quinella is the ‘easiest’ of the exotics to get a collect on. You can put as many horses in as you like, depending on how much you want to spend, but you have to find the first two across the line.
The horse to beat is certainly 8.Deauville Legend, being ridden by multiple Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy. But he is quite a short priced favourite, so our returns are unlikely to be substantial if he runs in the first two.
Kerrin McEvoy onboard Deauville Legend during trackwork at Werribee Racecourse on October 25, 2022 in Werribee, Australia. (Jay Town/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
You might try to couple him with a few outsiders, to pump up the value. Why not add in the three horses in the field that have won a state cup at 3200m? At least we know they have a touch of class and can handle the distance no problem.
3. Knight’s Order ($23) is a Brisbane Cup and Sydney Cup winner in great form, 10. Vow and Declare ($21) won the Melbourne Cup in 2019 and seems to be ready to peak again, while 14. Daqiansweet Junior ($34) took out the Adelaide Cup earlier this year.
Boxing 3, 8, 10 and 14 will cost $6 to get 100 per cent return.
For those more adventurous, they might want to leave out the favourite, and play a few horses in the $10-$20 range. Many think this years race lacks depth, which could mean the class horses rise to the top.
19. Smokin’ Romans ($18) won the Turnbull Stakes, 1. Gold Trip ($13) was second in the Caulfield Cup and was unlucky in the Cox Plate, 4. Montefilia ($11) is a four-time Group 1 winner, while 2. Duais ($23) won the Australian Cup at Flemington earlier this year, and has looked like wanting 3200m all year.
Boxing 1, 2, 4, 19 ($6 for 100 per cent) is sure to pay well if it lands.
Exacta
The Exacta often pays four or five times more than the quinella, because you have to predict the exact order of the first two home. It can pay even more if the outsider of the two horses finishes first.
Any combination of the above mentioned horses could get a nice exacta result, particularly if the favourite 8. Deauville Legend is carrying a bit too much weight for a northern hemisphere three-year-old.
But some might think the local form is suspect this year, and the internationals are going to dominate the race. There are four horses running that are off the plane, having their first start in Australia – 6. Without A Fight ($11), 7. Camorra ($51), 8. Deauville Legend ($3.60), 12. Hoo Ya Mal ($16).
Those four horses in a boxed exacta will cost $12 for 100 per cent.
Trifecta
The Melbourne Cup trifecta is where the bigger returns start kicking in, if we are lucky enough to land it.
Perhaps there is no need to overthink a race like the Melbourne Cup, when it comes to the trifecta. There are seven horses in the field that have run in the top two at their last start. If nothing else, you know they are in their best form nearing grand final day, and there are many here who aren’t.
6. Without A Fight ($11) was second in a Listed race at Newmarket UK in late September, and has the added benefit of winning his previous two starts as well.
8. Deauville Legend ($3.60) won the Voltigeur last start, which is the best recent form of any horse in the field, and has run in the top two at his last six starts.
13. Serpentine ($71) could be the value horse, after running second on Saturday in the Archer Stakes – horses than run well in it invariably run well in the Cup too.
16. Arapaho ($71) was second in the St Leger at Randwick two weeks ago, and drops five kilos into this race, which will be important. 17.Emissary ($31) won the Geelong Cup, a race that has often provided the Melbourne Cup winner.
18. Lunar Flare ($21) was second in the Moonee Valley Cup last start, which is exactly what Prince of Penzance did before he won the Cup.
22. High Emocean ($34) won the Bendigo Cup last start, and has the added benefit of winning at Flemington already this prep.
Those seven horses offer a range of odds, and we know they are in form.
Boxing 6, 8, 13, 16, 17, 18, 22 and a $21 bet will give us 10 per cent of the dividend. And given the odds of some of those horses, you can almost guarantee for a great return if it gets up.
First four
While the trifecta paid $436 last year for a $1 investment, the first four was worth $5413. The year before it paid more than $40,000. What a vast difference one extra horse can make!
But it is harder to box horses in a first four and get a good percentage without spending too much money, so we need to get creative.
We’ve mentioned a lot of horses already in this preview, and there are many ways you can cut them up into a first four.
This is the time to back your judgement in Australia’s greatest race!
A formula you can use is to pick two horses you like for first, add two more for second, add two more for third, and another two again for fourth. A $25 outlay will return you 20.83 per cent of the dividend, and this is how one could look:
– 8, 19
– 3, 6, 8, 19
– 3, 4, 6, 8, 19, 24
– 3, 4, 6, 8, 14 19, 22 24
Now remember, you can study all the form guides you like, but your boss’s uncle will pick a horse because its name rhymes with something, and probably win more than all of us!
But that’s the beauty of Australia’s greatest race and why we love it so much. Every person has their own unique way of finding a winner.
Good luck, punters!