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The Melbourne Cup is upon us again. Every horse in the race has reasons they can win, and reasons they can’t. For all the horses below, one of the “pros” will be right, for the other 23, the “cons” will be correct!
Everyone will know the answers after the race, but here are some pointers to help you beforehand.
Pros: The number one saddlecloth tells you Gold Trip is the classiest horse in the field. Six times he has run in the top five at Group 1 level, including a fourth in what many see as the best race in the world (the Arc de Triomphe), and a second in the Caulfield Cup two starts ago.
Cons: Gold Trip sits on one career win, which came 29 months ago. Does he have the will to win, which is such an important asset in a racehorse? Also, he is carrying at least 2kgs more than the rest of the field, no easy task in a big handicap.
Can he win? Yes.
Pros: Duais is a three time Group 1 winner, including the Australia Cup at Flemington earlier this year, and her last five wins have all been at distances of 2000m or further. She has been racing this preparation like she needs 3200m to show her best, and showed signs of life with a very good closing effort in the Caulfield Cup.
Cons: She hasn’t finished better than sixth this preparation, and in some ways looks like she is just happy running in the pack. After catching fire in the autumn, she has looked quite plain for most of this spring.
Can she win? No.
Pros: Knight’s Order is a proper stayer, having already won a Sydney Cup and Brisbane Cup at 3200m. He is having a superb 2022, finishing top five in all eight runs, including that Sydney Cup and a third placing in the Caulfield Cup last start. He loves wet ground, so the more rain the better for him.
Cons: The Flemington track drains water so well, that it might not be boggy enough for him to get his absolute best chance. Not many eight-year-old’s win the Melbourne Cup, with only one in the last 80 years.
Can he win? Yes, if it’s a heavy track.
Pros: Montefilia is a classy customer with four Group 1 wins to her name. Her record at 2400-2500m is good – winner of the Metropolitan last year, fourth in two Caulfield Cups, and top five in a Derby and two Oaks as a three-year-old.
Cons: She’s never raced beyond 2500m, and as a mare with 55.5kgs has to carry the same weight as Makybe Diva did to win her second Melbourne Cup. Is she good enough to do that?
Can she win? Maybe.
Pros: Numerian was only beaten just over a length in the Caulfield Cup, and had finished in the top two at his previous five starts. One of those included a win over Zaaki – that’s elite level form.
Cons: There were question marks over his ability to run a strong 2400m before the Caulfield Cup, and he had every chance to win but found others stronger late. He doesn’t strike as a 3200m horse.
Can he win? No.
Pros: All of the internationals have a great chance this year, given the local form looks very even and somewhat suspect. And this horse is a winner, having won seven from 17 career starts, including two victories over 2800m in Britain.
Cons: He’s only raced at Group 1 level once, where he started $51 and finished 12th of 15. His last four wins have come in fields of three, six, four and four. Not ideal when lining up in a 24 horse field.
Can he win? Yes.
Pros: Another international, but the least regarded. In the last 18 months he has carried between 60.5 and 63.5kgs in all of his nine starts, winning two Group races in that time. He will love the drop down to 55kgs in this race.
Cons: The best race he has contested in his career was last start in the Irish St Leger, where he was beaten 20 lengths. If you can forgive that flop, which was put down to track condition, he can run a big race at odds if he strikes a good track.
Can he win? Yes, if the track isn’t too wet.
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Pros: By far the least raced horse in the field with only seven starts, he has finished in the top two in the last six of them. He’s just profiling beautifully, improving at each start and tackling tougher races each time he steps out. Last start in the Great Voltiguer Stakes in the UK, he won in fine style with El Bodegon four lengths behind him – that horse just got beaten half a length in the Cox Plate behind Australia’s best horse, Anamoe. Deauville Legend is the dominant favourite for a reason.
Kerrin McEvoy onboard Deauville Legend during trackwork at Werribee Racecourse. (Jay Town/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Cons: All his racing has been on good tracks, and we might see a choppy Flemington if rain falls during the meeting. Even though the form guide says he is a four-year-old, by Northern Hemisphere time he is only three and a half, and has to carry 55kgs. Other European horses of his age profile, having carried 51kgs to win this race.
Can he win? Yes.
Pros: Stockman is an old-fashioned Melbourne Cup type of stayer, who has been racing in great heart. He finished alongside Knight’s Order (subsequent Caulfield Cup placegetter) three starts back, and has since won himself. He had a nice tickover at 2000m on Saturday at Rosehill to top him off for this assignment.
Cons: Does he have the class to beat all of these? You’d have to think no.
Can he win? No.
Pros: Well, he’s already won a Melbourne Cup, and no-one else in the race can claim that! After two years in the wilderness, he’s back racing with great zest this campaign, and has been one of the eye-catchers in each of his four runs. He might be “back”.
Cons: He hasn’t won since the 2019 Melbourne Cup. He carried 52kgs in that race, and has 54kgs this year despite not having won in-between.
Can he win? No.
(Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Pros: Flemington is Young Werther’s best track, given he has placed three times at Group 1 level here. He placed in two Derby’s as a three-year-old, giving hints of his class, has placed in the last two Turnbull Stakes, and wasn’t beaten far in the Cox Plate two weeks ago.
Cons: He has only won one race, which was a Geelong maiden on debut. It’s hard to see his second coming here.
Can he win? No.
Pros: Another Northern Hemisphere three-year-old, Hoo Ya Mal is sneaking under the radar. He was only half a length behind Deauville Legend in the Gordon Stakes back in July, and has since won. If you can forgive his last start in the English St Leger, which was his worst career outing by far, he looks an excellent each-way chance.
Cons: You prefer horses coming off a career best run over a career worst, when it comes to a big race like the Melbourne Cup. Especially given he has travelled half the world to get here in-between.
Can he win? Yes.
Pros: Owned by Lloyd Williams, who has won seven Melbourne Cups and spent the last 30 years of his life trying to win it as many times as he can. He is coming off his best run in Australia, when second in the Archer Stakes on Saturday, and as a younger horse won the Epsom Derby by five and a half lengths.
Cons: Prior to Saturday, he had been beaten by a combined 33 lengths in four Australian runs. Thinking Saturday’s result was a flash in the pan spike, in what was a race of little depth.
Can he win? No.
Pros: One of only three horses in the field that has won at 3200m, thanks to his Adelaide Cup win back in March. He followed that up with a third in the Sydney Cup behind Knight’s Order on an unsuitable heavy track. Last start, he had no luck at all and was the victim of a poor ride, yet wasn’t beaten far by two very good stayers.
Cons: 10th, 7th, 10th in three starts this spring isn’t the sort of profile you like to see for a Melbourne Cup winner. He also hasn’t been seen in over a month, but to be fair he was coming off a similar break before winning the Adelaide Cup.
Can he win? Best real roughie in the race. Knockout chance.
Pros: Sixth in the Melbourne Cup last year, which was stronger for top end talent. His last three wins, all between 2500m-2600m, have been at Flemington. Prefers dry ground, but has struck wet tracks all starts this prep.
Cons: The biggest con is that he’s just not good enough. Which is a key one, really.
Can he win? No.
Pros: An honest type racing in career best form, and he’s got some good form around some nice stayers like Caulfield Cup winner Durston and Moonee Valley Cup winner Francesco Guardi, and ran well in the Metropolitan and St Leger. He does enjoy a track with some give in it, which he will almost certainly get on Tuesday.
Cons: This is a couple of levels higher than he is used to contesting, and not many win a Melbourne Cup having their 15th start in a preparation.
Can he win? No, but sure to run well at huge odds. Won’t lack for miles in the legs, that’s for sure.
Pros: He’s won two races this preparation, is being prepared by a Melbourne Cup winning trainer, and he handles all conditions. He easily beat Surefire in the Geelong Cup, and that horse came out and won the Archer on Saturday. He’s one of many locally trained hopes that you can throw a blanket over.
Cons: Can a horse really go from seventh in a Benalla Cup and win a Melbourne Cup a year later? There are stronger stayers out there, more suited to 3200m.
Can he win? No.
Pros: Lunar Flare is just a really good horse, and tends to hold her form once she finds it. All four runs this spring have been very good, including a win in the Bart Cummings at Flemington two starts back. While she was beaten four lengths last start in the Moonee Valley Cup (a race she won last year), her run was just as good as the winner.
Cons: A seven-year-old mare, the last of which to win a Melbourne Cup was Makybe Diva, she needs to go to a new peak to win. Not many hit a new peak at that age.
Can she win? No.
Pros: A Group 1 winner at Flemington already this spring, Smokin’ Romans brings some of the best form of any runner into the race. He was unlucky in the Caulfield Cup, and some judges think he might have won that race with a better ride and/or clear running at a crucial stage. He’s won three races at 2500m, albeit at an inferior level to this, and has arguably Victoria’s best jockey on board, as well as the state’s best trainers.
Cons: He’s had all the favours in his two winning runs this prep, but those favours ran out in the Caulfield Cup and he couldn’t find a way. He was beaten 20 lengths last time he was at a staying trip at Flemington, in January this year.
Can he win? Yes.
Pros: A lightly raced mare, she once won a 2800m Listed race at Flemington by seven lengths. Not many have the talent to do that, regardless of the level.
Cons: She’s just going very plainly at the moment, compared to when she was going well last year and could still only run 9th in this race.
Can she win? No.
Pros: Another lightly raced horse of only nine starts, owned by Lloyd Williams, he went on a winning streak earlier this year with three wins on end, including the Listed Ramsden over 2800m at Flemington. The horse he beat into second there, Luncies, is a good one. If he can recapture that form, and improve off it, he could be a hope.
Cons: He’s only had two runs this campaign, and has been the first horse beaten on both occasions. It would take a remarkable turnaround.
Can he win? No.
Pros: This horse is a winner, including two races this prep, and always puts in. He’s coming off a Bendigo Cup win, and beat Vow and Declare over the Flemington 2500m three starts ago. He’s been right on the heels of Lunar Flare a couple of times, and easily beat Persan at Caulfield one time – that horse ran 5th in the Melbourne Cup two years ago. He gets in with a light weight, and is handled by Victoria’s premier trainer of stayers.
Cons: It’s hard to find too many knocks at the $41 price with only 50kgs on his back.
Can he win? Yes.
Pros: Another runner out of the Maher/Eustace yard, he’s having his first preparation in Australia after having the first six starts of his career in Europe. He was less than a length behind Lunar Flare in the Bart Cummings two starts back, and meets her a kilo better at the weights.
Cons: He keeps getting beaten, twice as favourite, this campaign. He’s been well in the market all four runs, but keeps finding a handful of better horses. It feels like it’s a year too soon for him.
Can he win? No.
Pros: This mare is the last horse in the field, but far from the least of the chances. She went amiss last spring when many were giving her a hope in the Melbourne Cup, and after a year off the scene has come back in great form. Her last start in the Metropolitan, where she finished a narrow third off a wide run, was good form. She won the Ramsden over 2800m at Flemington by five lengths in May 2021.
Cons: She has had her chances at 3200m in the past, running second in the Sandown Cup and fifth in the Sydney Cup. The Melbourne Cup is a much tougher race than those, even in a weaker year.
Can she win? Yes, but looks under the odds.
Selections: 1.Deauville Legend, 2.Hoo Ya Mal, 3.High Emocean, 4.Daqiansweet Junior.