- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Phar Lap. Carbine. Makybe Diva.
These are just three of the icons of the turf that have ascended to the top of the racing mountain in the storied history of the Melbourne Cup.
On Tuesday, another mighty thoroughbred will add his or her name to that list. But surrounding the juggernaut of public attention that is the Cup, there are eight other races that offer a bumper support card at Flemington racecourse.
With anywhere from 8 to 15 millimetres of rain forecast for the day, I’ve done my form on the basis of a soft 7, although there’s every chance we creep into the heavy range throughout the day.
Here’s my thoughts on a brilliant raceday, albeit one cast in a shadow of dreary Victorian weather.
Race 1: Maribynong Plate 1000m
The two year olds kick us off down the straight in a Group 3 race.
ZULFIQAR was a consummate professional in his debut, and that’s a pretty big boost to any horse’s chances in this race. Last years winner Brereton profiled in a similar manner. We can only hope William Buick doesn’t find himself in traffic down the straight.
HELLISH strikes me as a two year old who can have a say in these early-season races. AWESTRUCK can roll forward and be prominent. DIABELLI can improve out of his trial form and can win without surprising, as can the other Godolphin runner PARADE GROUND.
Jesse’s tip: Zulfiqar win $3.50
Race 2: The Maccas Run 2800m
Nothing screams Melbourne Cup day like a staying race, although I’m not quite sure this is what they meant.
WHITE MARLIN has been faultless in his career so far, and I’m not concerned about the wet ground. If you ran this race 10 times I think he wins at least five, so the $2.30 is good enough for me to get involved. VRENELI was very good in the Bendigo cup, and that might be the right form for this. At double figures I could push him each way.
CABOCHE is always honest and does map well. THEMOONLIGHTGAMBLER has been running well without winning and is potentially over the odds at $21.
Jesse’s tip: White Marlin $2.30 (Best Bet)
Race 3: The Subzero Handicap 1400m
Without a doubt the Cup is the feature of this meeting, but I absolutely adore the concept of the Subzero Handicap. Restricted to only horses Grey in colour, it’s possibly the most aesthetically pleasing race on the calendar.
KOOLED doesn’t have the numbers on the board at 1400, but he’s never too far off and drops down to the minimum here. Alana Kelly has been riding well (sans some misfortune at Morphettville on Saturday). He can win this without surprising. ASCENSION was a massive boilover on Thousand Guineas day and will get his preferred wet ground. The concern is you were getting $40+ that day and are now being asked to take $4.
LOVE TAP is very good on his day but concedes some key rivals huge weight differences. STRUCK BY is ultra consistent and I certainly wouldn’t talk you out of him if you liked him.
Jesse’s tip: Kooled $7.50
Race 4: TAB Trophy 1800m
Another age-restricted race, this time for the three year olds.
QUANG TRI has shown real talent in her short career, and is rightfully a commanding favourite here. Michael Dee has ridden her well in the past and I’m not concerned about the rise in trip. Clearly the one to beat here. ZOE’S PROMISE showed real fight to win at the Valley last start and I still think we haven’t seen her at her absolute best yet. That looks the each-way bet of the race.
DASHING has been running well in much harder races than this, just not sure if this is one run too many for him. DREAM HOUR just didn’t see out the trip last time so coming back two furlongs suits him.
Jesse’s tip: Quang Tri $2.50
The Melbourne Cup on display during the Melbourne Cup Parade in Melbourne on October 31, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Race 5: Schweppervescence Plate 1000m
At the time of writing, this is $8 the field – you don’t see that every day.
FIELD OF FLUTES has shown plenty of promise early on, and crucially is drawn the rail for his first look at the straight. In a race of plenty of unknowns, he looks one to follow. FISSION beat Field of Flutes last time out, so simply must be respected on my push for the latter. KIN mixes her form but her best is good enough.
CROSSWINDS is a stakes winner so this is certainly winnable; my question would be down the straight first time. LASCARS, BOLDINHO, PORT ALBERT and SELOUS will all have their supporters (although I’m not sure the wet track helps any of them).
If there’s a horse you like here, back it, because you’ll get the price to find out.
Jesse’s tip: Field of Flutes $9.50
Race 6: Furphy Plate 1800m
This looks to be the day that JUST FOLK breaks through this prep. He carried the grandstand when knocked off by NONAME LANE, and then chased home Cascadian, who is absolutely airborne at the moment. He still has the big weight, but there’s a couple of swings in his favour.
NONAME LANE is another in career-best form and was brave in the Group 1 in Toorak; you could definitely make a case. REGAL LION is one I have plenty of time for, but this prep has been a bit all over the place and the stable is adamant he prefers dry ground. SIR DAVY boasts group 1 form lines, so on that alone you’d have to give him a chance.
Jesse’s tip: Just Folk $5.00
Race 7: Melbourne Cup 3200m
The reason we’re all tuning in on Tuesday.
It’s been a drama-filled build-up, with Loft and Durston both coming out in the past few days. We have 23 stayers (at the time of writing) contesting the race, but for me at least half of them aren’t serious winning chances.
WITHOUT A FIGHT is a versatile Irish visitor who presents as a real chance in this field. He should go forward from his barrier, so as long as William Buick can find some cover and is allowed to build into the race he should be having a say late in the piece. $11 is a good enough price relative to his opposition.
If it’s not too wet, YOUNG WERTHER can give this a big shake. He was never going to topple the likes of Anamoe in the Cox Plate but there was nothing wrong with the run. He’s a horse that deserves his day in the sun.
KNIGHTS ORDER and SERPENTINE have been dealt killer blows by the barriers but will be pace influences and if there’s anything we learnt from Twilight Payment in 2020, it’s that those horses can be very hard to run down.
REALM OF FLOWERS is a strong winning hope, but $11 sees me looking elsewhere. It’s a similar situation with how I assessed DEAUVILLE LEGEND: there’s too many unknowns to have him at $3.80. That’s not to say he can’t win, but I’d be needing $7-plus to get involved. For all the talk about how he profiles similar to Cross Counter and Rekindling, he has a massive impost for a Northern Hemisphere 3 year old.
WHO YA MAL is the unknown horse and can win. DUAIS has been trained to the minute for the cup, so don’t be scared off by her middling runs so far. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR should see out the trip.
Jesse’s tip: Without A Fight $11
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images for the VRC)
Race 8: In Memorial of Her Majesty 1400m
We honour the Queen with a very even Benchmark 90.
THE GARDEN has gone up the completely wrong price by my assessment of this race; he just missed behind Visinari last start with no luck. You have to wonder what price he would start in this race.
MINSK MOMENT got the breakthrough win on Geelong Cup day, and I can’t find any real reason to knock him here. He retains James McDonald, and the Ranch Hand form at 1400 looks strong enough for this. GREEN FLY absolutely fascinates me on Australian debut, and I very nearly put him on top. He may be better over further, which was my hesitation, but he can absolutely win here.
MUNHAMEK is certainly not short of talent, but he’ll be near last at the turn and despite Flemington being a lot fairer than Caulfield, his barrier means he’s susceptible to bad luck. PASCERO and DETONATOR JACK are also live hopes.
Jesse’s tip: The Garden $10.00
Race 9: The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes 1400m
The final of our Group contests for the day.
PROMISE OF SUCCESS got under the guard of many (myself included) last start, winning the Invitation at a massive price. She may be slightly disadvantaged by apocalyptically heavy ground: however, if it comes up on the firm side of a Heavy 8 I don’t hold too many concerns.
HERESY is ultra-consistent and gets the booking of Norwegian superstar William Buick. The Remarque/Clemenceau form is a big positive here. LITERARY MAGNATE finally shook the dreaded non-winner tag last time out. She’s always had the talent to give these types of restricted-sex races a shake, so her winning here would not shock me.
SHE’S ALL CLASS looks to have gone up over the odds at the current market – I could entertain her at $18 plus.
Jesse’s tip: Promise Of Success $6.50
Race 10: MSS Security Sprint 1200m
We certainly don’t finish the day with a Dorothy Dixer of a race.
NICCOLINI VITO is an owner’s dream: always turns up, always gives it his all, and usually finishes in the money. The booking of Craig Williams is a clear sign of intent and he can make his presence felt here.
ZETHUS holds some great form lines and I’ve often felt he’s a little underrated. The stable is absolutely flying at the moment so don’t be surprised to see him in the finish. Should THE ASTROLOGIST back up from Derby Day, he is a runner that would need to be respected due to his affinity with the straight six course at Flemington.
PIONEER RIVER is another course specialist and I’d never completely rule him out off that alone. VESPERTINE can win on his best form.
Jesse’s tip: Niccolini Vito $7.00
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.