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ANALYSIS: Winners and losers from the NRL's 2023 season draw, where a fast start is key

10th November, 2022
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10th November, 2022
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The 2023 NRL draw is live and the forensic analysis of it will now begin, with fans keen to see just how their team has fared.

As was leaked earlier in the week, the season opener will see the Eels face the Storm at CommBank Stadium in Sydney in a Thursday night blockbuster. An emotional Warriors will host Newcastle in the Friday twilight, before the defending champs Penrith meet the Broncos in prime-time.

The Dolphins debut against the Roosters on Sunday afternoon, with the Dragons forced to keep their powder dry across the opening weekend.

YOUR CLUB’S THREE DON’T MISS GAMES

THE FULL 2023 SEASON DRAW

Magic Round has fallen in the manner predicted, with the Knights destined to miss out on the festivities and the weekend to be headlined by the Storm versus Rabbitohs on the Saturday night, as well as the Sunday afternoon fixture between the Roosters and Cowboys.

Wayne Bennett’s new charges have been treated kindly across the opening month of the season. The Roosters, Raiders, Broncos, and Knights loom as opponents, with the first three of those played in Queensland on home turf. The Dolphin’s home crowds will be of great interest and the clash with Brisbane hopefully the first of many derby-like encounters for years to come.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - OCTOBER 27: Wayne Bennett poses for a photo with the revealing of the Dolphins Heritage Round jersey during a Dolphins NRL press conference at Suncorp Stadium on October 27, 2021 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

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Whilst the Eels may have ended the 2022 season as runners-up to the powerful Panther machine, their 2023 campaign begins with a series of matches that will tell us a great deal about whether they are any chance of repeating what was a stellar season.

Across the opening five weeks, the Eels face the Storm, Sharks, Panthers and Roosters, with the Anthony Seibold-coached Manly the least imposing proposition.

There is some relief soon after, based on the expectations of the teams they subsequently meet, yet it appears Parramatta will not have the luxury of easing into the season and face tough early tests.

Seibold’s Sea Eagles begin the year in rivalry heaven and with a Round 2 bye that may or may not be of any use at all. The Bulldogs await them in Round 1 and the Eels a fortnight later, in two ripping matches at Four Pines Park.

Many an eye will be on Cameron Ciraldo’s star-studded Dogs, yet his team will be forced to do well on the road early, with three of their first four matches away from home and the traditional trip to Belmore Sports Ground slated for Round 3 against the Tigers.

No such bad luck for the Broncos, with four of their first six at home and a further game at Suncorp against the Dolphins. Their clashes with the Dragons, Wests Tigers, Dolphins and Raiders are all winnable and important games to potentially excite the Brisbane fans who felt the pain of a sad fade-out in 2022.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MAY 21: Panthers assistant coach Cameron Ciraldo looks on during the round 11 NRL match between the Sydney Roosters and the Penrith Panthers at Sydney Cricket Ground, on May 21, 2022, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Cameron Ciraldo. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

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The Dragons will have similar aspirations of a winning start to the season, with three of the first four at home and Anthony Griffin under continued pressure to return the Red V to serious competitiveness. Should there be no signs of that in the opening month, Griffin could well be the number one candidate for the first sacking of the new season.

Despite not earning a trip to Brisbane for Magic Round, the Knights have an interesting start to the season, with the Warriors, Wests Tigers and Dolphins awaiting them in the opening three rounds and the chance to make a quick start obvious.

The Raiders and Sea Eagles await in subsequent weeks and the Knights don’t meet a perceived heavyweight until Round 7, when they face the Panthers in Newcastle.

The Rabbitohs will need to be switched on immediately, meeting the Sharks, Panthers and Roosters in the opening three weeks, in matches that will tell us a great deal about precisely where the 2022 contenders are at early in the season.

A gentle start for the Roosters across the opening two rounds is followed by a full month of challenging fixtures, with Souths, Parramatta, the Storm and Cronulla in the cross-hairs, whilst the Sharks’ cushy draw of 2022 will be quickly forgotten when they take on the Rabbitohs and Eels in the opening fortnight, in what could be telling fixtures in terms of Cronulla’s potential improve on last years’ efforts.

Round 1’s fixture between the Tigers and the Titans may look innocuous to some, yet both will have it circled as vital should they hope to achieve anything at all in 2023. Wests will be looking to parlay an opening win into a second against the Knights in Round 2, with the Titans looking at the Dragons in the second week as a chance to do the same.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 04: James Tamou of the Tigers and his team look dejected after a try during the round 25 NRL match between the Wests Tigers and the Canberra Raiders at Leichhardt Oval, on September 04, 2022, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

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Reading the runs home of teams is near impossible at this stage, with significant movement expected on the 2023 ladder. Most likely to shake things up are the Bulldogs, Dolphins and Sea Eagles, with all three a little tough to read due to a freshness in each of them.

A new look 27-round competition accommodates the Dolphins’ entry, three byes have been awarded to all clubs and all three State of Origin matches revert to a Wednesday night timeslot.

Whilst the changes made by the Commission bring a freshness and difference to the calendar, one thing remains the same. Teams suffering poor and unconvincing starts to seasons rarely find their way back into contention.

In 2022, the top seven teams were occupying a finals position by Round 6, with only the plummeting Sea Eagles bringing change and allowing the Raiders to make their way in. I’ve said it before and I will say it again. Start poorly at your peril. The draw will once again play a significant role in teams being able to avoid a sloppy start and position themselves for a run later in the season.

The fixture is inherently compromised and there will always be a few winners and losers in retrospect.

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