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Opinion
The business of tipping the outcome of sporting events is fraught with danger – just ask those inside and outside of New Zealand Rugby who were predicting coach Ian Foster’s demise before the Test against South Africa in Johannesburg – but the temptation of analysing Sunday morning’s Test between England and New Zealand is too great.
This is especially so as it may give us a more realistic measure as to how the home side is tracking 10 months out from the Rugby World Cup.
For the All Blacks it is important too, but only in the context of an already flakey year that has swung between notable, such as the win over South Africa at Ellis Park, and notoriety a few weeks later after the home loss to Argentina.
While the result will probably define the All Blacks’ season – the final game of the year always, perhaps unfairly, seems to carry additional perceptive weight – Foster is safe enough.
He has the support of the senior players, who most likely caught the hierarchy off-guard (especially the support of the senior Crusaders) when they all strongly endorsed Foster’s retention as his tenancy hung by a thread midway through the year.
The bosses of New Zealand Rugby didn’t mess with the players then, and the current six-match winning streak will have them breathing slightly easier, albeit with the knowledge that none of the wins that make up that run have been against sides rated above them on the World Rugby rankings.
It is the state of play in England, and especially what is going on in the mind of Eddie Jones, that fascinates.
Eddie is an acquired taste.
He’s notoriously hard on staff, hence the huge turnover of off-field personnel on his watch.
He also has a ‘shelf life’ although, to be fair, most coaches do.
It is often forgotten that Eddie was ‘on his way’ from Japan and had signed for the Stormers prior to the ‘Miracle of Brighton’, which not only got him the England job, but also became a moment he can ‘trade’ off for the rest of his life.
Who remembers now that he was moved on in acrimonious circumstances from the Wallabies?
Or that he was a disaster with the Reds (92-3 against the Bulls anyone?) and had not been kept on by South Africa after he played a key part when Jake White’s team won the 2007 Rugby World Cup?
But make no mistake, Eddie is a good coach, one of the best in the game.
For all the press sideshows, and the mind games with both opponents and his own players, Eddie is one of the game’s most cunning operators.
He knows how to win big games; how to push the right buttons in his players on the biggest stages.
(Photo by Dan Mullan – RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)
Sunday morning is the type of circumstance that brings the best out of him and, like Foster, his position is safe. It’s really only ego and pre-World Cup psychology on the line.
Even so, given an All Black visit to Twickenham is rare these days, and that England easily beat the Springboks last year (lessening the significance of next week’s match), the 19th of November will have long been pencilled in his diary as the match of their autumn programme.
Forget the outcomes, and even the performances, against Argentina and Japan.
They will bear little relevance to what awaits the All Blacks.
Improvement against Japan was inevitable: Wales, Scotland, and France, who each rolled out their top XVs, were significantly better in week two than they had been in their November openers.
And we only need to go back to June, when England lost a Test in Perth they shouldn’t have, to see how Eddie’s teams respond to missteps.
In 2019, Eddie produced a template that strangled the All Blacks.
He knew Steve Hansen had gambled his chips on quick possession from the breakdown and playing with speed and width.
There was no plan B.
Eddie made sure the quick ball never came, and Hansen’s men finished a distant second!
I’m sure he has cooked up another tailor-made plan for this weekend: I’d expect England to kick for touch a lot more, to slow the game down as much as possible, play a lot more off 100-game man Owen Farrell to keep the defence guessing as to the involvement of Marcus Smith, and for a more direct approach up front where England will know an advantage can be achieved.
(Photo by Will Russell – RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)
It’s simply a variation of a template he has used to beat New Zealand before, most notably in two Rugby World Cup semi-finals.
And he has a versatile England team, that can play with control off Farrell, or chaos off Marcus Smith, while players like Freddie Steward, fast improving halfback Joe Van Poortvliet and returning centre Manu Tuilagi complement either approach.
They play behind a forward pack – eight of whom remain from the 12 who bullied the All Blacks in 2019 – that know they can expose the physical limitations that hinder New Zealand.
This makes England a greater all-round threat than any of the opponents the All Blacks have beaten during their run. It also won’t be lost on Eddie that the top All Black XV has only played once in nearly two months, since the Eden Park whipping of Australia, which is a dangerous gamble on Foster’s behalf (remember the rustiness excuse wheeled out after the game against Japan?).
I’ve no doubt Rugby Australia will also be watching closely.
I will be incredibly surprised if Eddie is not running the Wallabies in either a head coach or Director of Rugby role from 2024.
He probably won’t come cheap, but he will be a smart choice.
Eddie’s ‘tough love’ will tidy up the poor attitude which is reflected in their shoddy discipline, while his strategy and the organisation on which he insists, will undoubtedly bring the best out of a Wallaby side that has potentially great cattle, but lacks ringcraft amongst its handlers.
But that is for the future.
For now, Eddie’s focus is the All Blacks.
And while It’s not about the World Cup, Sunday morning might prove a solid portent as to what is coming.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.