The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

Opinion

Ascot raceday preview: Who will take the Gold Rush?

Roar Rookie
7th December, 2022
Advertisement
Autoplay in... 6 (Cancel)
Up Next No more videos! Playlist is empty -
Replay
Cancel
Next
Roar Rookie
7th December, 2022
1

Carnival time out West comes to a close with day five of The Pinnacles upon us, with the inaugural (kind of) running of The Gold Rush.

The 1.5 million dollar Group 3 weight for age feature has grabbed all the headlines, but the stayers have put together a handy bunch for the running of the G.A. Towton Cup.

It’s a bumper 10 race programme, and hopefully below there’s enough winners tipped to make the day a good one.

Race 1: RTG 78+ 1000m

Certainly can’t complain about a lack of speed here. BEADS was some win first up when relatively unwanted in the market, punching the breeze the entire trip three wide no cover. He was powering through the line on that occasion and should take improvement coming into this second up.

Barrier 4 should allow Shaun McGruddy to park behind the leaders and make one run in the straight. Of those leaders, you always have to respect ACROMANTULA in the five furlong scampers, with the element of intrigue being the first Saturday metro ride for apprentice Luke Campbell.

The booking will give some much appreciated weight relief, and if he doesn’t cop too much pressure he could be too slick to be run down. GEMMA’S SON continues to whack away, although there is a case to be made from him drawing barrier one here.

He does have some versatility, so I wouldn’t completely say no to him, although he is running out of chances. RIVER BEAU is another speedster who usually puts in a good shift in this grade, can entertain him with the apprentice claim.

Advertisement

Jesse’s tip: Beads win $2.50

Race 2: 3 year old plate 1000m

AIYZA was another tough run last start, working hard throughout before going down to Saintorio and All The King’s Men. For a 3 year old plate, you can’t ask for much more than that. Jamie Kah retakes the ride, and while it would be fair to say this isn’t the horse she’s travelled across specifically to ride, it’s certainly a positive that she’s eager to get on board here.

Don’t think we’ll be seeing the $26 we saw last start come jump time. DIAMOND COMMAND has some pretty handy form in her own right, being beaten last start by Prawns Eleven and My Bella Mae. Barrier 9 is a tough gate for Brad Parnham, but if his ride last week on Home James was anything to go by, he should be able to get this filly into a winnable spot.

The race falls away rather alarmingly after that, I would just about consider any other winner a surprise. GALAXY AFFAIR got the job done at Geraldton last start, but he’s been punished for that with the top weight. No reason he can’t run well, but I get the sense he will need a peach from Ben Melham to win here.

YARRALEA was okay in the harder fillies races and will appreciate the drop back in class.

Jesse’s tip: Aiyza win $2.50

Advertisement

Race 3: 0MW 58+ 1200m

If she can find the front from a somewhat awkward barrier, this could be the perfect race for SAMARIA for her first go in Westspeed company.

Has been narrowly beaten in easier races her last two starts, but crucially gets right down in the weights with Holly Watson’s claim, where all her main rivals are conceding upwards of 3kg in the run. Expect an aggressive ride to make use of it.

REIGN OF FIRE is never far away in these Westspeed restricted races, and the drop back to 1200m is more than likely in his favour. He may not have lived up to his early promise from the winter of 2020, but he’s a great horse for connections and can get the job done here with the right run.

DANCE COCKEY arguably ran the race of his life last start at triple figure odds, only getting claimed late in the Westspeed Final on Winterbottom Stakes day. Will put himself in a favourable position on the speed and give plenty of cheek.

HALATORION is a very consistent Gelding who did run fairly well last start. Could entertain as an each way proposition.

Jesse’s tip: Samaria win $7.50

Advertisement

Race 4: 1MW 60+ 1600m

Aren’t we lucky, metro win restricted races back to back. He certainly doesn’t win out of turn, but SPECIAL VIEW should be a big benefactor of dropping out of ratings company and meeting easier opposition.

He was beaten less than two lengths last start by Megazone and Crescent City, while the start prior he was 2.5 lengths off Alsephina and Trade War.

Any of those four would be a very short priced favourite here. Have faith in Brad Parnham to get the best out of him here.

Despite going up in weight slightly, I’m very wary of KEYTRADE here. The recent form is stacked full of battlers around the other leading contenders here, and while Westspeed form isn’t exactly A level, it’s good enough to be competitive here.

This horse goes super for Alan Kennedy, and I don’t think the mile will be an issue. MOSQUITO was good last start and you must give respect to a Casey galloper when they start to find form. He can put in a big run here. VITALIZE has been stringing wins together in easier company, just not sure about her up to a mile. Still wouldn’t be counting her out.

Jesse’s tip: Special View win $5.00

Advertisement

Race 5: 1MW 60+ 1000m

Spoke too soon when complaining about two consecutive metro win races didn’t I. Jumping off CASH AWAY after a disappointing effort on Northerly day, so naturally he’ll probably storm home 4 lengths clear.

Assuming the race isn’t run purely to spite me, I think SWIM THROUGH showed more than enough in a 64+ last start to warrant supporting here.

Settled so far back he may as well have been north of the river, before storming home late to be beaten less than 2 lengths by the smart Bitofmerit. That form should hold up when running in this company. MOI CHOUX finished in front of Swim Through on that occasion, but enjoyed a perfect run and from barrier 9 I’m not sure he’ll have the same luxury here.

CAPITAL FLIGHT was scintillating throughout the Belmont winter, and that State Of Power/Beads form is more than capable of stacking up in this company.

DISCO DONUT hasn’t been seeing out the six furlong trips he’s been running over, so a drop back down to the 1000m is in his favour. Suspect he sits outside the leader from that draw and can win without surprising.

Jesse’s tip: Swim Through win $5.50

Advertisement

Race 6: RTG 64+ 1200m

This is quite a strong ratings race relative to what we can often get in this class. BRAGWELL returns off a Mount Barker trial, and has acquitted himself well in this company in previous preparations.

Barrier 4 is ideal for McGruddy from a map perspective, he should be able to find cover and present at the right time. His first up record previously is sound and trainer Steve Wolfe has always had an opinion of him.

The one knock his his somewhat difficult relationship with the winning post, but I’m willing to cut him some slack and put him on top here. When fields initially came out, I thought I’d be all over REAL GRACE, but the more you look into her the more holes you can poke.

She was very good last week behind Buzzoom, but Saturday is her 9th run of the campaign and you just have to wonder at what point she’ll have had enough of racing. She’s two wins from eight starts over the 1400, and one win from seven starts at Ascot.

Throw in barrier 9 and you have more than enough reasons to drive me well away from her. MY MARIANA was very good at Northam first up, justifying the short quote with a stylish win. She’s undoubtedly Saturday class and gets the weight relief from Luke Campbell.

Another one not helped by the barriers. HARDLY EVER was well backed first up and was good behind Bitofmerit and Swim Through, she can win here. REAL DANGER is never far away and has gone up a reasonable price, I can make a case for her.

Advertisement

Jesse’s tip: Bragwell each way $11.00/$3.25

Race 7: RTG 72+ 1600m

The tolerance you’ll have for ABOVE THE PEG on Saturday will wildly depend on whether you took the $2.10 for him last start, when getting rolled by Dom To Shoot.

While he didn’t win on that occasion, he was beaten by a horse that ran midfield in the Northerly last week and has always had plenty of ability. He stays at a mile, gets the in form Patrick Carbery and a lovely barrier to boot.

ALSEPHINA posted some win in 66+ company last start, storming home to add to her very impressive record. Should be able to secure cover from barrier 7, and be saved for one run late. She probably is the best horse in the race, but I suspect the Pike tax will be in full force (especially on Raceday) and I just can’t justify the quote.

If you like her I wouldn’t talk you out of her, but I’ve gone elsewhere. MEGAZONE just keeps turning up and winning, a far cry from his form over the past three years leading up to this renaissance. He keeps drawing perfect barriers to sit behind the leader and you’d be foolish to dismiss him off current form.

CASINO SEVENTEEN was mightily unlucky last start and can atone here. Be interested to see what the market does with him on Raceday.

Advertisement

Jesse’s tip: Above the Peg win $5.00

Race 8: Listed G.A. Towton Cup 2200m

There were real worries about the WA staying ranks heading into the carnival, but the Towton has produced a quality field that all racing fans can look forward to.

He may be approaching two years without a win, but the signs were there last start that NEUFBOSC is on track for a strong preparation, and is well treated here as a former Perth Cup winner. Gets a lovely draw from barrier two, which given the amount of speed in this race could end up being the perfect spot to be when the white flags start getting waved.

Presents as a good opportunity for some value. I am very much on my own in this, but I’ve yet to be convinced that ALASKAN GOD is that good. His derby win came against Pale Rider (deary me), Black Fantasy (what price in this race?) and Trix of the Trade (doesn’t get a mile and a half).

Since then, he admittedly ran well in the Asian Beau before flopping in the Railway and getting past Dom To Shoot in the Northerly.

He’s better suited up to 2200, but if he was going that well he’d be in the Van Heemst next week at weight for age.

Advertisement

To be clear, none of that is saying he can’t win (and after this paragraph he probably will) but $2.20 is comical for his prep so far and I want to be well away from that on a tricky map. I was aggressively away from PURE DEVOTION last start, and will again be doing so here.

Alaskan God and Pure Devotion are taking up nearly 70% of the market percentage at the time of writing, which is just baffling.

The upside to that is that if you like one outside of the three aforementioned, you’ll be rewarded with a nice price. BLACK SHADOW was better than Pure Devotion in the Schaill and is triple the price, COME RIGHT BACK is a similar story.

Not sure he’s a winning chance (especially with the weight), but I have to mention the return of TRAP FOR FOOLS on Saturday. If he runs well, look out for him come Perth Cup time.

Jesse’s tip: Neufbosc win $6.00

Race 9: Group 3 Gold Rush 1400m

Plenty of credit must go to the powerbrokers in Western Australian racing for bumping up this race and making it a must see attraction on Saturday.

Advertisement

This preview was written at 6pm Perth time on Wednesday, so given the current favourite has a massive injury cloud over his head, a lot could change between now and jump time. We may as well start with VILANA, who brings some top form lines across from Sydney and is the opening market elect.

This was always his target race, and while he was thrown into the Winterbottom picture late, that quickly went off the rails when the vets ruled him out. He galloped well at Ascot on Saturday but there’s still persistent questions over whether he starts.

Choisir at Royal Ascott

Choisir at Royal Ascott. (Photo by Adam Davy/EMPICS via Getty Images)

James Cummings is a master of his craft and it would be lunacy to doubt him if he thinks the horse is ready, but with the concerns over his soundness and also (in my opinion for his racing pattern) an unfavourable barrier, I am prepared to work around him. I’ll touch on his stablemate in a second, but before I do we have to talk about the darling of the Danny Morton yard.

There was a distinct roar when KISSONALLFORCHEEKS hit the front in the Winterbottom, only to be gunned down late by a mammoth run from Paulele.

She arguably isn’t a 1200m horse and will only be suited up in trip. Barrier 7 is perfect for her to land a nice spot midfield with cover and if she’s ready to go I wish the leaders luck in holding her out.

Circling back to KEMENTARI, the beloved galloper who became somewhat of an adopted Sandgroper when he revitalised his career here two years ago. He’s been a model of consistency since, and gets the services of Jamie Kah here. The Everest run is more than enough of a form reference for this.

Advertisement

There’s two at a big price that have been completely missed by the market, RED CAN MAN and RESORTMAN. Forget the Winterbottom run ever happened for the former, he drew the carpark and the race was over before it began. If it hasn’t taken too much out of him, he can be a factor at 1400m, as his September effort in the Sir Rupert Clarke would indicate.

Resortman is absolutely flying at the moment and was gallant until the end, lumping the top weight in a Railway. He’s much better suited back to weight for age and arguably will benefit from going back to 7 furlongs.

ELITE STREET was probably our best local horse heading into the spring, although it’s fair to say it hasn’t worked out. Don’t know if $6.50 will get me. MASSIMO is a genuine weight for age horse and can give this a real shake at a nice price.

Jesse’s tip: Kissonallforcheeks win $4.80

Race 10: RTG 78+ 1400m

They’ve hardly given us a soft way to end the day. I thought the return of BILLY AIN’T SILLY was really pleasing in the Carbine Club, where he found the front and kept finding to go down by less than two lengths. He historically improves second up and will be able to sit handy from the inside barrier. He’s always shown plenty of ability and this looks a decent race for him.

Speaking of the Carbine Club, I pushed PANZDOWN that day and he ran very well at double figure odds, finding third late. I’m not sure this race will pan out the same way and while I will kick myself if he wins, he’s not for me on this occasion.

Advertisement

FLYING MISSILE is a bit enigmatic but finally gets the 1400m she seems to need to be most effective. Brad Parnham has a great book of rides across the meeting and he can easily finish the day with a win here. BIG SCREEN will be cursing the barrier gods, just how much work will he have to do to get across?

If you were allowed to swap barriers, THE VELVET QUEEN would have shot her hand up to volunteer. Just a matter of whether Chris Parnham can find clear air and not get held up by a bunch of stoppers.

Jesse’s tip: Billy Ain’t Silly win $7.50

close