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Opinion
Another weekend of racing is upon us. Here are my tips for Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes Day at Sandown Park this Saturday, 4 February.
The price is probably right about Inundation at $1.90. The Price and Kent gelding broke the track record at the Valley on resumption over 1000 metres when beating Unflinching with ease by 2.75 lengths. He then went to this track last start and got run over late by a smart horse in On the Lead after sitting just off the leaders in the run. He will lead here and I think he is just too fast for them. He should be beating this field if bigger and better things await.
Fire shapes as the only danger. He won arrogantly on resumption over this track and distance last prep before running well without winning in Sydney. He loves this circuit, but I still think he would have had to improve a few lengths to trouble the favourite. No Way Ever is the best of the rest.
It seems like a race of two between two very promising two-year-olds here. I am leaning towards Veecee, who showed a lethal turn of foot on debut at Flemington over 1100 metres when winning by 2.5 lengths. Ethan Brown was very easy on him late in the piece there and I think there was plenty left in the tank. Coming back to 1000 metres is the only query, but I think his class might offset that. He is a good horse.
Serasana is the main danger. She debuted at this track and trip when dominating her rivals to win by three lengths. The query is obviously the level of opposition she faced that day. She is also a very good horse and it is hard to split them.
Extremely Wicked is the best roughie. She was solid behind a handy one on debut and will look to lead again here. I expect at least some improvement to come out of that debut run.
(Photo by Olga Gasheva via Unsplash)
This will be a cracking race with some progressive types engaged. Hennessy Lad goes on top. He was a good winner on the Lakeside circuit on resumption and his last-start horror show at the Valley looks like a decent form line coming back to his own age. He just never got a look at them for the entirety there and the performance still rated well considering that. From the low draw (No. 3) he will have the map advantage over the main dangers, and the claim from Hefel might be that little bit extra he needs to get over the line.
Blakmax is the danger. He flashed home to run the fourth fastest final 200-metre split at Geelong on resumption and then powered home late to again run the fourth fastest final 200 metres of the meeting when winning at Sandown. Distances of 1400 to 1800 metres are never ideal, and I think he prefers a quick tempo rather than a slow one, which is what he might get here. He is a good horse though and will be winning better than this.
Field The Moment looks like the likely leader of a race without much speed engaged. I love the race she came out of last start at the Valley behind Shuffle Dancer and I think she will be in it a long way.
I tried to find a way to get the favourite Bendetta beaten but I kept coming back to her. She was completely dominant when breaking her maiden two back by 3.5 lengths when beating Queen of Tuscany, and she repeated that effort when beating Discerning ($11 here) by 2.25 lengths last start over this distance. The wide gate is the only concern (No. 10) and she will need a good ride from Stackhouse, but apart from that, she is clearly on top.
Field Of Praise is the only horse that can topple her. She got nailed on the line at the Valley first up and then came to this track and held them off to win by a neck when beating Colorado Cruz ($9 here). She draws (No. 2) to lead them again here and she will take catching.
Belmia is a lay.
Tip
No. 1 Benderra – 1.5 units to win
British Columbia needs to be ridden with more intent than last start. They went nine lengths slower than standard to the 800 metres in that race and he was outsprinted in the straight when the whips were cracking. All of his best efforts have been off reasonably fast tempos, and if the others are not doing it for him, Jordan Childs needs to take the initiative and make it a truly run race. From the low draw (No. 2) he has plenty of options in where to be in the run, and I am prepared to forgive that second-up run as a dip, much like last prep. I expect him to improve here. He is the best value pick at $4.60.
Rhinoceros looks overs at $17 as well. He was ridden to take luck out of the equation at Pakenham last start and he gave them a galloping lesson. The form behind Riverplate two back reads well, and I think he is over the odds here.
Victory Bay and Euro Dandy are both similar horses. You cannot rule them out, but you would go broke backing them. They are the next best and have hope.
Tips
No. 9 British Columbia – one unit to win
No. 4 Rhinoceros – 0.25 units to win
I found it hard to have much confidence here. Daytona Bay has a very good racing pattern, and that is the reason he has won four from five. I think this is his biggest test yet though, and for that reason I cannot dive in at the $2.80 quote. He could demolish them and make a statement, but the bubble could also burst.
Foujita San is very similar. He was very good in better races than this behind Tijuana and Berkeley Square last preparation and he never had a chance in the Guineas when given the widest gate. The trial leading into this was very good, and he could be in for a big preparation.
He’s Xceptional is the likely leader in a race devoid of much speed. He was terrible last start, but his win before that would see him go close here. Williams Thomas will be running on like always. We will learn a lot from this race.
The feature arrives. I think Snapped is at a backable price at the $4.40 quote. This is not a terrific G3, and she is very progressive. Her first-up win at this track when beating a handy horse in Capital Theatre was incredibly good – she ran the fastest last 400 metres of the meeting – and she was terribly unlucky when running into rear ends at Rosehill last start when running third behind a good horse in Kir Royale. She will have to improve here, but I am banking that she will third up and out to the 1300 metres. She’s drawn to get a perfect run, and Mark Zahra is a big positive.
Rose Quartz is the biggest concern. The run two back when a close third to Jigsaw and Shamino looks very good now, and she was good down the straight last start behind Snapper. She ran the second fastest last 200 metres of the race, which gives the impression that 1300 metres will not be an issue. She is drawn (No. 2) to get the run of the race and is good enough.
Excelida is the best roughie. This is a bit short of her ideal trip but in her last run she was third in a G1 and her trial leading into this was terrific. She looks a big price at $11.
Wrote to Arakti draws terribly (No. 13) but has plenty of talent. She will need a peach from Jamie Kah but is on the next line.
Tip
No. 11 Snapped – one unit to win
I think the bookies have got it wrong here. Detonator Jack is nearly coming to the end of his preparation and is seeing 1800 metres for the first time this prep. He also draws horribly (No. 11) and will have to settle near last in a slowly run race. A price of $2.40 looks under the odds.
Right You Are is looking for three on the bounce, and his win two back over this track and trip looks like a good form reference for this race. He then went to the Valley and was incredibly tough late to win by a head over 2040 metres. He drops down to 54.5 kilograms after lugging 60 kilos last start, and if they ride him the same way, he will be awfully hard to get past.
Beltoro was very good at Flemington last start when winning by 3.75 lengths, and once he gets in form he usually holds it for a few runs. He’s over the odds at $10.
Riot And Rose should be $10 and lay.
Tips
No. 6 Right You Are – 1.5 units to win
No. 9 Beltoro – 0.5 units to win
Race 9
I’m having a two-bet play in the get-out. So You See had excuses two back, and her performances on either side of that have been very good. She peaked late first-up behind Life Lessons when second to that galloper on the Lakeside circuit and she was a dominant winner here last start over the mile when beating Dane on Tour by 2.5 lengths. That horse subsequently won at the Valley. The form is good and she maps to get a dream run again here just off the speed.
Glory Daze brought over good ratings from England, and his first-up effort in the Port Fairy Cup was terrific over 1400 metres. He ran the third fastest last 200 metres of the meeting there, and rising to 1700 metres looks like an ideal progression second-up. He will need to get some luck, but at $7 I do not want to be losing if he wins. Mark Zahra is jumping on, which is a big tick.
Threeandfourpence will get back in the run but should have finished much closer last start at the Valley behind Ima Shelby. Third-up now, he should be ready to peak, and I think he is going to win a nice race this prep.
Riverplate will not get it as easy this time but does map well.
Timour is the big blowout chance. I think he will improve now over 1700 metres. He should be shorter than Hasseltoff at $17.
Tips
No. 7 So You See – 0.75 units to win
No. 1 Glory Daze – 0.5 units to win
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