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Opinion
R1: Hoping the track plays fairly because if it does I think DON CORLEONE will be hard to beat in the opener. I loved his first trial last preparation which he won well and his debut at this track over 1000m was simply outstanding. He was trapped 3WNC the trip and still had plenty left in the tank to go straight past the expensive Kundalini. He races like the 1100m will be more suitable and he draws to settle a touch closer here.
McDonald chooses him over the second elect which is also a good push. CAFE MILLENIUM is a strapping Colt who is over the odds at $13 on debut. I loved the way he has worked to the line in both his trials leading into this and I think he has something special about him.
Just might need a bit further. KING’S GAMBIT destroyed them on debut at Caulfield before running into a good one in the Canonbury. Draws horribly here (12) but you should always forgive a bad run. GANBARE will lead and is the best of the rest.
R2: Sticking to my strategy of not betting in Highways here. EPIC RANGER did not have much luck last start and is probably the way I would steer you at the double figure quote ($10).
R3: Intriguing race here and like all these Midways, a very even one. I think you can make a case for BUDHWAR at cricket score odds. He arrives here first-up off a four month break and his trial win at Wyong leading into this indicated that he is fit and ready to run a big race fresh.
He saves his best racing for when he is first-up (5:1-2-2) and he draws perfectly (3) to sit just in and behind a hot speed. His ratings measure up okay and the Lane and Maloney combination are striking at 25%. He is overs.
ANOTHER COGNAC was very good behind Lucky Variety last start and was a dominant winner two-back when overcoming some issues to win a Warwick Farm BM64. He draws to sit midfield and to get the last crack at them. HARD TO SAY spiked last start when winning at the Sunshine Coast by 3L.
Gets Jmac on. OUR KOBISON and HEADWALL are both progressive but draw horribly in the two widest barriers.
R4: Pretty keen on MAJOR ARTIE here and I think he will turn the tables on BOLD MAC from the last start run over 1500m at Rosehill.
He gets a 2.5kg weight swing in his favour off last start and more importantly, I highly doubt they go as quick here as they did last start when the leader took off to a degree.
He draws perfectly (5) to either lead or sit just behind it and he gets Nash Rawiller on who gets the most out of these on-speed types and is striking at 27% for the Waterhouse table.
He looks very hard to beat here. KING RATEL was very impressive three-back at this track and trip and was a moral beaten when given an average steer by Collett last start over 2000m. Comes back to the mile and will be flashing home.
ASCENSION brings up some very good Victorian form when running 1.5L away from Pounding and Corner Pocket and draws (1) to get the run of the race. He can run a big race at the $12 quote.
R5: Tricky little race this. ESPIONA is a bit of a money muncher but goes on top here carrying the 53kgs. Her main rivals are giving her a few kgs in the run and that can be amplified on wet tracks.
Her first-up record reads well and if she repeats her run in the Light Fingers a couple of preparations ago when running half a length off Fangirl, she will just win this.
She draws to do no work and Pike gets on for Chris Waller. Big tick. TITANIUM POWER has the fitness advantage over a few of these and will go straight to the front and try and pinch it. He loves Randwick and gets Timmy Clark on board to replace Glyn Schofield which is a big tick.
MR MOZART is the best horse in the race, the question mark is whether he is ready to go first-up. GRAVINA loves wet tracks and can run on strongly late.
R6: Think you can have a two bet play here. LAZZAGO was very good on debut over this trip when recording very quick late sectionals. She will get back in the field here but I think they are going to absolutely fly along out in front which will set it up for those at the rear.
She draws the perfect gate (9) to do exactly that and William Pike rides backmarkers as good as anyone in the country. $10 is overs. KUNDALINI brings in the best 2YO form in the country after finishing a close second on debut to Don Corleone who is well in the markets for both the Blue Diamond and the Golden Slipper. She put 3L on third there and I get the feeling she is going to appreciate a Soft track.
She can settle around midfield and be very strong late. LEARNING TO FLY just draws terribly (19) and you have to be against at the price ($2.80).
I still think she will win the Golden Slipper but she probably does not win here. BLANC DE BLANC is in the right camp and gets McDonald on. Jmac is going to need to be at his very best from the car park (16).
R7: The favourite IN SECRET has the synthetic hoof filler off for the first time which is a favour but I thought she could have trialled a little bit better leading into this and she obviously has bigger fish to fry later in the Autumn/into the Spring. Concede she is the best horse in the race but I think NORTH STAR LASS has been trained to win this first-up.
Last time she was first-up she was a narrow third to In secret on a Soft 5 at this track and trip so I think the $1.80 to $9 difference in price is a bit much. She recently beat the champion Anamoe in a recent trial when they ran slick time and she draws (2) to lead and dictate the race here for a great front running rider in Timmy Clark. She loves getting her foot into the ground which is another big tick.
Each way all day. SUNSHINE IN PARIS is a very progressive Filly who trialled up a treat leading into this first-up run. Wet ground the query but I think she belongs at this grade.
FIREBURN might need a touch longer but she was terrific at this time last year and she has trialled very well leading into this. Heavy ground is another tick. There are a few dangers to this favourite.
R8: Difficult race to bet into here. The reigning Cox Plate champion in ANAMOE resumes here at $1.70 and it is hard to see the champion getting beaten. He has a very good fresh record when essentially beating this field last time he was first-up and his recent trial indicated that he is ready to go first-up. He will take plenty of benefit out of this but I think he will be too good for them.
EL BODEGON loves wet ground and was an enormous third in the Cox Plate that Anamoe won. He was not asked to do much in a recent trial but can run well. HINGED likes wet ground and can run a big race, whilst ICEBATH also loves Heavy tracks and goes well fresh. He can run a big race first-up.
R9: The barrier is some concern but I think NORWEGIAN BLISS is a winner and she will be hard to beat here. She is seven from eight and is undefeated first-up. I think 1200m is her sweet spot which she resumes at here and I do not think there will be too much early speed on which should allow Adkins to cross them and sit on the speed. The form around Crosshaven reads well for this race and her trial was very good leading into this race. Adkins and Doyle strike at 25% which is another big tick. Hard to beat.
I will have something on BELLATRIX BLACK at $26. The former Kiwi has won two from six which included a big win over Mustang Valley in the Sunline Vase. Obviously, this is over a lot shorter but she draws perfectly and has trialled well enough to indicate she is ready to sprint fresh.
Best horse in the race and it is worth a gamble at $26. KIR ROYALE beat snapped last start over 1100m and drops 6kgs off that. She will likely lead and take some running down. PO KARE KARE is the best of the rest and has ability.
R10: Pretty keen on PIZZARO here at the $7 quote. I have always had plenty of time for him and I think he has come back well this time in.
(Image by Peter W via Pixabay)
He was very good fresh when being luckless early in the straight before flashing home late to finish 1.8L off Titanium Power and he was far from disgraced in the G2 Expressway Stakes when running fifth and 4L off Mariamia and Golden Mile.
He generally dips second-up and then spikes sharply third-up and I get the feeling he is going to do that here. His best ratings go very, very close here, he loves some give in the ground and he gets in carrying 56.5kgs after carrying 58.5kgs in a G2 last start. Ticks all the boxes.
WATERFORD is the favourite and does have plenty of talent. He just toyed with them in his last start win before the break over 1500m and his trial leading into this was good. I just think the $2.70 is too short.
This is a big test for him. VRENELI has been smacked with 61.5kgs by the handicapper but does have a great pattern. He was excellent when beating Bold Mac over 1400m two-back and he was nabbed late off a hectic tempo last start. Back to 1300m is a tick and he is the likely leader.
THINK ABOUT IT needs to improve significantly off the last start and is a LAY at $3.60.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1 #9 CAFÉ MILLENIUM – $11 – 0.4U EACH WAY
RACE 4 #5 MAJOR ARTIE – $3.80 – 1U WIN
RACE 6 #10 LAZZAGO – $10 – 0.6U WIN/#14 KUNDALINI – 0.4U WIN
RACE 7 #6 NORTH STAR LASS – 0.75U EACH WAY
RACE 9 #2 NORWEGIAN BLISS – $3.80 – 1U WIN/#10 BELLATRIX BLACK – $26 – 0.5U WIN
RACE 10 #6 PIZZARO – $7 – 2U WIN
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