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Much of the 2023 Super Rugby season is going to have a dual purpose – deciding the competition itself and settling on players and structures that will round out the squads for the Rugby World Cup.
The All Blacks probably went through their most turbulent season in 2022 with a disastrous start, the eventual shedding of two assistant coaches who should have been cut a year before, and some major tactical and personnel changes, however there are still some first team squad gaps that need to be addressed by the Super team selections.
It’s time to stop the experiment of playing him at six right now. No doubt he was in all sorts of form last year, but he plays six like a lock, not a blindside and the side loses more than it gains. I understood the emotional pull of starting Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick versus England when they broke the record number of games for lock pairings, and for Retallick to bring up his 100, but does anyone really want them on the park together towards the end of the game, especially as the code is about to speed up under the shot clocks?
I can see a scenario where one of our veteran locks is starting from the bench once we get to RWC time.
The average numbers for S Barrett when starting at six aren’t impressive reading either: 3 passes, 4 carrries for 5 metres with an average of 3 team tries conceded against tier 1 opposition and 13 tackles for 2 missed.
Compare this to Shannon Frizell’s 2023 averages from tier 1 starts last year, 4 passes, 9 carries for 25 metres and a single team try conceded per match and 8 tackles and 1 missed.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
I’m not going to question S Barrett’s form at all, but the All Blacks are going to need him in the second row this year. The change of law around how halfbacks defend at the ruck is going to make it a whole lot harder for the hybrid lock/blindside to defend against a ball carrying eight from scrum time and I expect this role to swing back to the specialists.
No side is going to carry a specialist first eighth in the matchday 23 and for the ABs Beauden Barrett will cover this role from either fullback or the bench if Richie Mo’unga gets injured in game. But what if he goes down injured and the All Blacks need a starter?
There is no way the All Blacks can trust BB with the starting 10 shirt as the evidence of the last few years more than confirms, as did his last start in the role versus Scotland. The game has moved on, this option has passed.
For mine there are only two options, neither of whom have much exposure in the shirt at the top level.
Stephen Perofeta appears to have the full skill set, temperament and patience required to play flyhalf at Test level, but he has barely a sniff at the test side. The only way he is going to get even close to being ready is to be camped there every game for the Blues and focus on that much needed game management that only comes with time in the chair.
Damian McKenzie is Churchill’s enigma in the role. For every positive there is an equal and opposite negative with the way he plays the game.
He looked really good for the ABXV on the end of year tour and if he is going to be an option he needs to start in front of Bryn Gatland for the Chiefs this year. With Shaun Stevenson demanding the fullback slot based on his efforts in the Māori and ABXV shirts last year, I reckon the All Black coaches have a phone call to make to ensure DMac gets the time he needs at 10 for the Chiefs this year.
To highlight one upside, against the Blues he ripped a left-hand pass across the midfield for a Chiefs score in the corner at the weekend and that quality of ball movement is a key part of the All Blacks attacking structure now.
Dmac does have the added advantage of time in the All Black shirt, but little as a starting 10.
All Blacks cannot play more than five games in a row in the Super comp. That is the directive from above in a year when they will only get to play five internationals before the RWC kicks off. It seems a little restrictive, does it not?
It seems to me that playing as many high intensity games as possible this season is a good thing, and for mine that means being available for all the New Zealand derbies, as well as the Brumbies and Waratahs games , and perhaps the Drua away too.
Aaron Smith will miss opening two games of the season to allow him a longer rest. It’s only the Blues and the Crusaders after all; aren’t these the games he needs to be playing in order to maintain the sharpest of edges?
With a short international season mid-year there appears a real risk that our Test players will not get to play enough code at the pointy end of the game before they head off to France.
Every time Alex Nankivell has pulled on the black jersey, be if for the Maori or more recently for the ABXV, he has looked totally comfortable at the next level. A good reader of the game, defensively sound and with a really good nose for attack he seemed to be built for the next level.
Even in last weekend’s Chiefs vs. Blues preseason game this year he ripped through Rieko Ioane and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck in midfield four times, with his distribution post break ruining what could have been a great performance.
The inclusion of Braydon Ennor and RTS in the All Blacks in 2022 at this man’s expense was yet another throw-back to the Ian Foster ‘ball in hand at all costs because it’s in our DNA’ approach of recent years ,which pleasingly now appears to have been binned and hopefully does not see the light of day again.
I would not be holding Nankivell’s decision to leave for Munster against him and if his Super Rugby/Black Jersey form holds, he should be a All Black squad selection before the aforementioned ‘x-factor’ players – who incidentally, delivered zero x-factor.
It’s all going to get quick, real quick.
The shot clock on kicks, rucks, lineouts and scrums will not only increase the pace of the game, it is going to improve the real key ratio; ball in play time against total time elapsed.
I have long argued that efforts to increase the ball in play time or speeding up of the game is of almost no use to the sport if 40 minutes of rugby takes an hour to play as we have seen over recent seasons.
Now we will get faster resets, more ball in play added to a reduction in total time elapsed – I suspect this is going to have a far greater impact on the game than coaches are currently planning for.
The law change stopping the defensive halfback advancing around the scrum is going to be huge. Highlanders head coach Clarke Dermody is already talking about halfbacks no longer defending at the scrum and indeed we saw the Blues do this in last weeks trial with the halfback dropping back into the backline and AJ Lam stepping into defend in the one channel.
This is going to seriously test out the lateral footspeed and spot tackling of flankers, as the opposition 8 is going to have lots of time to not only wind up, but also to decide which side of scrum to attack off. I expect this to be the death knell for the hybrid lock/blindside player.
I made a point of watching Sam Cane, who incidentally comfortably outpointed his opposite last weekend, as he is a master at getting off the side to make these kind of tackles, and even he was giving up gain-line to the ball carrier. This could become a seriously important change in the game where attacking innovation is given a head start.
My bolters for the All Blacks Rugby World Cup squad:
Dominic Gardner, Shaun Stevenson, Alex Nankivell, Marino Mikaele-Tu’u
Enjoy Super Week One ROARers.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.