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Opinion
There have been almost 70 coaches sacked since the start of the NRL era, which averages out to around three each year.
Heading into 2023, that trend looks likely to continue with several coaches already under heavy pressure to keep their jobs.
There is no such thing as 100 per cent job security when you’re an NRL coach but the likes of Melbourne’s Craig Bellamy, Trent Robinson at the Roosters and Penrith’s dual premiership-winning mentor Ivan Cleary are as close as you can get.
There are a few coaches like Gold Coast’s Justin Holbrook, Canberra’s Ricky Stuart and Parramatta’s Brad Arthur who wouldn’t want a poor season or they could be under scrutiny, but here are the three coaches who have to perform of they will perish.
Anthony Griffin enters the season with eight weeks to save his job. Or is it six weeks? Either way, the prospect of an NRL coach entering the season already on the clock is a league reporter’s fever dream.
According to the usual wild speculation and rumour-mongering on Twitter, Griffin is lucky to still have a job. Had it not been for an ill-advised contract extension handed out prior to the 2022 season, his moribund tenure as leader of the Red V might already be over.
Griffin’s original appointment in September of 2020 was about as warmly received by St George Illawarra fans as a building site running out of Dare Iced Coffee. The former Broncos and Panthers mentor arrived in Wollongong with a serviceable 55 per cent winning percentage across 173 first grade games and a reputation for doing things the old school way.
Griffin inherited an aging roster weighed down by underperforming and unavailable stars, and a culture poisoned by knucklehead senior players. His task was to administer a cultural antidote, excise the cancerous growths from the locker-room and cultivate the rich crop of junior talent coming through the lower grades.
Anthony Griffin. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
In 2021, he achieved none of those goals. Instead of blooding young players, Griffin signed a busted Andrew McCullough and a threadbare Josh McGuire. Instead of fixing the culture, we had Weekend at Vaughany’s. The Dragons lost their final eight games of the season and finished 11th.
Last season wasn’t much better. Outside of a career year from halfback Ben Hunt, St George Illawarra were mediocre at best. They won as many games as they lost (12) and missed qualification for the finals by four competition points. Most concerning was their defence, which conceded 23.7 points per game (PPG) off the back of a whopping 938 missed tackles— the highest in the NRL.
Heading into 2023, the vibes around this team couldn’t be worse. Whispers of player unrest continue to circulate, which certainly wasn’t helped by the no-show at the end of season presentation night nor by continued social media sniping by former players.
To make matters worse, first-choice fullback Cody Ramsey will sit out the season as he battles a serious illness and five-eighth Talatau Amone has been stood down indefinitely due to his legal issues.
Ironically, only youth can save Griffin now. He must turn to the disgruntled duo of Tyrell Sloan and Jayden Sullivan, each of whom have previously requested a release from the club, to help guide his stagnant attack.
Will it be enough to push the Dragons into the top eight? It’s very unlikely. And with the glowing reports on Red V alumni Ben Hornby and Dean Young, this situation will come to a head before too long. Come July, Griffin will be explaining to the NRL 360 crew why he deserves another chance.
Adam O’Brien lobbed into Newcastle prior to the 2020 season as the next big thing. The original Cameron Ciraldo. Spawned from the Craig Bellamy coaching tree and having spent time with Trent Robinson and Brad Arthur, he had the pedigree of a prize-winning Labradoodle.
Upon arriving in the Hunter, O’Brien traded in his Ben Sherman for Hark Yakka, popped his new blue collar and got busy. His early press conferences hit all the right notes – improving the culture, instilling a work ethic, embracing his players. Not even George Lucas could sell new hope this well.
Now three years into his coaching career, it’s difficult to evaluate O’Brien’s tenure at Newcastle. Looking strictly at results, his could be viewed as a successful appointment. He’s led the Knights to the finals in two of his three seasons in charge, breaking a six-year post-season drought.b
Yet O’Brien’s Newcastle sides have never been viewed as legitimate contenders. Despite being stacked with blue-chippers like Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga, David Klemmer and Bradman Best, the Knights have largely under-achieved since he arrived.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
In fact, it could be argued that they are getting worse each season. The Knights finished seventh in 2020 and qualified for the finals with a +47 point differential. The following season they again finished seventh, but this time with a -147 point differential. They were predictably waxed in Week 1 of the finals both years.
In 2022, the lipstick had well and truly washed off this pig. Newcastle fielded the competition’s second-worst attack (15.5 PPG), third-worst defence (27.6 PPG) and finished with a point differential of -290. Had it not been for the inept play of the Tigers and the mental exhaustion of the Warriors, the Knights would have collected their fourth wooden spoon in eight seasons.
Luck certainly played a significant part in this steady decline. Two games into O’Brien’s head coaching career, the competition was shut down due to COVID-19. Navigating a team through that mess would have been taxing enough, but Newcastle also lost their top three hooking options to season-ending injuries.
Pearce and Ponga missed significant portions of 2021 due to injury, with the former prematurely departing the club at the end of the year. The 2022 season started with a bang, which unfortunately turned out to be the rupturing of Jayden Brailey’s Achilles tendon. Add to this Ponga’s multiple missed games and injury had cruelled another season of Newcastle football.
The 2023 season represents O’Brien’s last roll of the dice, and his job will hinge on the success of Ponga’s move into the halves. Many have questioned the logic of shifting a player with a recent history of multiple concussions into the front line of defence. It’s a fair question.
Newcastle fans hold their breath every time Ponga attempts a low tackle or is slow to his feet. O’Brien will be right there with them.
Kevin Walters joined the Brisbane Broncos at their lowest ebb. Anthony Seibold had been fired less than two years into a five-year contract, Chairman Karl Morris was conducting defensive media conferences with the regularity of the Palaszczuk government, and the club had collected their first wooden spoon.
Buoyed by a groundswell of “old boy” support, Walters was installed as coach prior to the 2021 season and promised to bring back Bronco DNA. While I’m not sure about Kevy’s knowledge of nucleotides, this roughly translated to getting the club back to where it was when he was a player.
With an inexperienced roster devoid of talent along the spine, Walters’ first season in charge was predictably poor. More concerning than Brisbane’s 14th-placed finish, however, was the negative headlines being generated off the field. From players punching on in pubs to a litany of arrests and some shocking Jake Turpin haircuts, this was a club mired deep in dysfunction.
The signing of Adam Reynolds proved to be a turning point. The former Bunny brought his wealth of experience and elite kicking game to Red Hill, and the impact was instantaneous.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Brisbane won 13 games, including seven straight during mid-season. They fell off towards the end of the year, but that can be excused from such a young side.
Unfortunately for Walters, the improvement of his football team was overshadowed by further off-field issues. Payne Haas’ contract saga became a constant source of speculation, culminating in the prop being booed at Suncorp Stadium. Walters himself was struggling to relinquish responsibilities to football and performance director Ben Ikin, with the whole saga being narrated on Triple M by Gorden Tallis.
Worse still was the shade being thrown at Walters on various podcasts, by no less than his own players. Tyson Gamble admitted that it was Reynolds, not Walters, who ran the show at the Broncos, while Selwyn Cobbo shared that Kevy was a great bloke, but not much of a coach. Only in rugby league.
Walters enters this season with a roster capable of playing finals football. With the arrival of Reece Walsh at fullback, the emergence of Cobbo, Herbie Farnworth and Ezra Mam across the backline, and a forward pack littered with representative players, there are no more excuses.
After the experience with Seibold, the Broncos will have more escape clauses in Walters’ contract than a Jennifer Lopez pre-nup. Unless Walters can take this club back to the finals, he’ll be back in the commentary box next season.