Opinion
It almost feels like yesterday that we were in the midst of the Melbourne spring carnival, but time flies along quicker than Black Caviar and now Blue Diamond Stakes day is upon us once again.
The difference this time around is that the Blue Diamond and it’s supporting Group 1 features are being run at Sandown instead of Caulfield due to the redevelopment of the latter. The racing industry participants, punters included, love the Sandown course with it’s sweeping bends and long straight to give every horse their chance.
Most are agreed that this is an even year for two-year-old’s, and there isn’t a lot between many of them. The lead-up race have borne this out, with no great margins on several occasions.
Barber is the professional colt of the field, as befitting Godolphin’s number one seed, unbeaten in three starts including the Prelude a fortnight ago. He held off Listed winner Little Brose and the well supported Perth interloper Brave Halo there, respectable rivals both.
Some might think Brave Halo was squeezed out of a run in the Prelude, but is drawn to have a tough go of things from out wide here. Barber looks to be the pick of these.
The Instructor is unbeaten for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, having twice won by leading all the way as that stable is wont to do. He’s trialled right on the heels of Annavisto since his win in the Preview, and we saw what that mare did last week. You can easily make a case.
Sandown racing, baby. (Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images)
Zulfiqar and Veecee ran the quinella in the Chairman’s Stakes a few weeks back and the form behind them has stood up well, but they have been forgotten by the market and are attractive double figure odds. However, the barrier draw has not been kind to them.
Don Corleone is the fascinating youngster to round out the colts division, well beaten last start in Sydney as a heavy odds-on favourite. It was just a run from him, and now he heads to Melbourne to see if he can find form against what should be a lesser division.
Steel City is the current favourite for the Blue Diamond, also down from Sydney even being in the Maher/Eustace camp, and interestingly the only filly in single figures.
Despite being a maiden, Steel City has run second in both of her career starts, each time behind a horse that is still unbeaten and at the pointing end of Golden Slipper favouritism. We will find out through her if the Sydney form is to be dominant again.
The Melbourne fillies have mostly all been racing each other in blanket finishes, which suggests there might not be much between them. And now they have to tackle the colts as well as those from north of the border.
Sensical might be the best of these now that she’s in the field as first emergency, despite her $41 quote. She ran the quickest sectionals home in the Fillies Prelude, and was clearly the strongest late.
Selections: 1.Steel City 2.Barber 3.Sensical 4.The Instructor
The Futurity promises to be an intriguing affair this year, especially given you’d be loathe to put a line through anyone other than Mr Mozart.
I’m Thunderstruck and Alligator Blood both have claims to be the best WFA horse in Australia behind Anamoe. “The Thunder” beat “The Blood” 4-1 in their match-ups in the spring, and while the former won a Group 1 and finished second in the Cox Plate, the latter had two Group 1’s to his name.
The 1400m course should suit Alligator Blood better, with I’m Thunderstruck the superior horse over further, but then Thunder has had the benefit of a run while Blood is first-up.
Mr Brightside finished behind one or both of the aforementioned favourites four times in the spring, and still has to find that length or two to turn the tables on them. He returned well in the Orr Stakes, but was once again behind I’m Thunderstruck, even if there was only inches in it.
The other horses, all of them bred and raced in their formative years away from Australian shores, have shown terrific talent at various stages over the last season.
Laws of Indices was a brilliant placegetter in the Toorak Handicap and followed it up with a third in the Hong Kong Mile in December. Aegon seems to have regained his form and was only a length of Alligator Blood in the Cantala a few months ago. My Oberon won like Phar Lap when first-up on Cox Plate day last year, and has been set for this fresh.
Nugget picked his way through the grades as an even money shot before a close-up third behind Jacquinot in the Orr Stakes, just in front of I’m Thunderstruck and Mr Brightside. There is clearly a watch on him this autumn.
Selections: 1.Mr Brightside 2.My Oberon 3.I’m Thunderstruck 4.Alligator Blood
Goodness gracious, what a field we have here, 16 hardy and high quality sprinters, none of which would surprise if they finished the race with the winners rug.
Asfoora stamped herself as Oakleigh Plate favourite with a blazing win first-up at Caulfield in October, which she backed up with a win down the straight on Derby Day. She is 3/3 at the distance, 2/2 first-up, loves firm tracks, and has drawn perfectly to dominate the race on speed.
Asfoora’s three main dangers all share the same lead-up race, which was the Rubiton Stakes two weeks ago.
Lofty Strike won that race, further entrenching how good the three-year-old’s have been in the sprint races this season. He dropped on a good field and put them away like they were nailed to the fence.
Chain of Lightning is a smart mare with a similar record to Asfoora, and encountered traffic problems behind Lofty Strike in that Rubiton. She might again from gate two. Uncommon James is another winner, who was very good in that race. They both meet Lofty Strike 2.5kg’s better this time around.
Between the four horses mentioned above, they’ve won a combined 20 races from 30 starts. They know where the post is, and are very, very talented.
You need luck to win a big handicap like this, and if it deserts the aforementioned favourites, you could turn to any of their rivals and expect a competitive showing.
Roch’N’Horse, Lombardo and Masked Crusader are the higher-weighted horses in the field, but have Group 1 credentials to prove their worth. The Astrologist is ever-competitive at this level. King of Sparta has been hounded by wet tracks at times in the past, but is always a winning threat when he gets good ground.
Zoustyle was impossible to knock with a series of placings behind elite horses in the spring, and is here to run well. Marine One is a sprinter on the rise and was only a length behind Lofty Strike and the others in the Rubiton, while carrying 59kg’s. Shooting for Gold has form around the right horses.
(Image by Peter W via Pixabay)
The four horses on the minimum are also genuine threats.
I Am Me has risen through the grades with four wins on the trot, each one more impressive than the last, and now gets Jamie Kah. Mileva can mix her form but is an 1100m and first-up specialist. Star Patrol has carried a boom since a seven length win at Flemington this time last year, and will have many admirers. Zapateo probably needs rain to beat all of these, but isn’t going to get it.
Selections: 1.Asfoora 2.Lofty Strike 3.Chain of Lightning 4.Shooting for Gold
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