Are Soccer and Rugby the biggest football codes on earth because they embraced a multi-division, free market structure, Or, did they embrace a multi-division, free market structure because they are the biggest codes on earth?

This article will explore which of the following football systems is the right fit for Australian football;
– Single Tier with draft and salary cap
– Multi-Division with salary cap – no draft
– Multi-Divisional free-market system – no draft or salary cap

I am writing this article because in my opinion, our game is currently facing some major challenges, including;
1. How do we incorporate the major regions of Australia into the national competition?
2. What is the best method to enable international expansion?
3. Should player payments be increased in line with other professional sports?
4. Should all players be free to join the club of their choice?
5. Should clubs be able to transfer their contracted players to another club for a fee?
6. Should the AFL continue to support clubs that are uncompetitive or financially unsustainable?

THE GREAT IDEOLOGICAL DIVIDE

Is it any coincidence that the most widely played football codes in the world (Soccer and Rugby) adopt a multi-division free market structure, while the country specific codes of American & Australian Football embraced single tier- market controlled systems?

The Australian sporting market has definitively established that Aussie Rule Football is the most entertaining sport in the nation, and likewise American Football in the USA. So why then cant these sports reach the same success that Rugby and Soccer has achieved internationally?

The simple answer is that a fixed licence – single tier competition is designed to concentrate the leagues energy on its existing licenses, limiting its ability to grow and expand new franchises. It uses strict market controls and policies of equalization to level the playing field and provide competitive equilibrium and economic stability for all clubs, with no appetite for club failures.

This strategy monopolises the league’s grip on the elite competition, making it difficult for other leagues to compete or new clubs to enter. By controlling club access and enforcing strict draft protocols while also preventing player transfer fees, the governing body has effectively severed all financial inter-connection between the clubs and the grassroots football community, limiting their ability to influence the future direction of the game.

In contrast, an open multi-division system encourages any self-sufficient club to enter its competition albeit from the lowest division and without the need for financial assistance or concessions from the Governing body. This inviting and unrestrictive structure is conducive to expansion by allowing all cities and regions to enter teams into the elite national competition, where players are free to negotiate contract terms with any club they choose and clubs can participate at a level which they can sustain, which results in the development of their own regional leagues, stadiums and eco-systems.

It is also worth noting that a draft is inoperable in a multi-division system, especially when there are competing international clubs contending to contract a player. The notion of forcing a player to join a club in which he does not want to play, or is under his talent capability, is abhorrent to our cultural norms and should not be tolerated in our game.

DOES THE LEAGUE IMITATE THE CULTURE OR THE CULTURE IMITATE THE LEAGUE?

Does the political structure of a football league influence the grassroots culture, or does the grassroots culture influence the structure of the league?

Grassroots football in Australia is mostly dominated by multi-division leagues where clubs are allowed to enter and compete at their appropriate level. This organic approach is consistent with free market thinking, limiting the influence of the governing body over the competition and allowing the players and clubs to have greater autonomy. However, in the last few decades the AFL has gradually been responsible for promoting a progressive egalitarian mindset within the football community, where the rights of players and clubs are sacrificed for the overall benefit of the league, even to the extent where behaviors and opinions have been regulated to fit in with the AFL construct.

In contrast, International football codes are underpinned by free market ideologies, where the rights of players and clubs take precedence over the league. This was highlighted with the advent of the European Super League, where free market forces enabled powerful clubs to demand greater rewards and innovations over their sport. The Super League was put on hold, mainly because it did not adopt a fair promotion and relegation system for all clubs, however, one would suggest that adjustments will be made, and it will become the highest grossing international football league on earth, all in defiance of the domestic Governing bodies.

Currently, the American National Football League (NFL) is the highest grossing football league per capita, however, there are no professional teams outside the USA and only 23 States out of 50 are represented. Is it fair and does the NFL want to expand?

The obvious answer is No, the NFL only has 32 licenses evenly distributed over 8 conferences, and a new license would create a fixture imbalance, so expansion requires the inclusion of another 8 licenses which is not possible due to the contractual ramifications on the existing multi-billion dollar franchises. Also, the States which are not represented in the NFL generally participate in the vibrant multi-division College football competition, which dampens the need for further NFL expansion. This current NFL architecture makes international expansion seemingly impossible, however the free market always finds a way, and the revamped XFL may become the vessel for future innovation and growth of the American game.

Aussie Rules Football on the other hand, is screaming our for a truly national football competition, one in which all major regions can be represented. Our fixture is already compromised with 18 clubs and 22 games, so what seems to be holding us back? Could it be our fixed structure and dogmatic pursuit of the American NFL vision?

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

23 or 12 CLUBS IN A 22 ROUND FORMAT?
The AFL obviously needs to expand its competition to include teams from Tasmania, ACT, Northern Territory, North Queensland and even Central NSW, but how can they do it without considerable concessions and league funding?

Is it best to pursue a single tier 23 club, 22 round competition where each team plays each other once, or a multi-division 12 team per division format, where each team plays each other twice?

The problem with a single tier- 23 team competition, is that the gap between first and last on the ladder is so large. Seriously, who would want to watch 1st vs 23rd, or even a dead rubber between 18th v 14th , especially when there is no option of relegation. In order for a 23 team competition to maintain interest, it would require an American styled conference system which is not really consistent with our Australian football traditions. Also, fixing all the clubs into the same competitive bracket would require an enormous amount of assistance and concessions from the AFL, which then compromises the health and strength of the existing clubs.

 (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

On the other hand, if the AFL embraced a multi-divisional format of promotion and relegation, it would allow a bevy of regional and international teams to possibly enter the league, and without the requirement for AFL assistance nor draft concessions.
Hypothetic club entries may come from the following regions;
– Hobart – North Tasmania
– Canberra – Perth
– Darwin – Newcastle
– Ballarat – Shepparton
– Sunshine Coast – Bendigo
– Albury Wodonga – Wollongong
– Bunbury – Geraldton
– Gippsland – Warrnambool

And incorporate existing state level clubs like;
– South Port Sharks – Werribee Tigers
– Port Melbourne Boroughs – Glenelg Tigers
– Swan District FC – Subiaco FC

And International Privateer Clubs from;
– England – Ireland
– New Zealand – USA
– Canada – South Africa
– Japan – Fiji
– PNG – Italy
– Croatia – Serbia
– Germany – Greece
– Israel – Lebanon
– Sudan – India
NB. These are just a suggestion only!
The successful expansion of our game into international markets would explode our current advertising and sponsorship revenues, and any serious strategist would be targeting these markets as a priority.

THE A-LEAGUE PIVOT
With the A-League announcing a transition to a multi-division league in 2024, Australians find themselves in a unique position to closely monitor the impact of the changes, which may be a pre-cursor for the AFL’s transition to a divisional system. Soccer pundits are even suggesting that the A-League second tier competition comprised of established ethnic clubs such as Melbourne ‘Croatia’ Knights, Adelaide ‘Italian’ City & South Melbourne ‘Greek’ Hellas, may attract greater interest than corporately engineered top level clubs? Maybe not, but the adoption of a divisional league with promotion and relegation can only add greater passion and participation to the A-league competition.

AN AFL MULTI-DIVISION COMPETITION WITH A SALARY CAP?
Both free markets and controlled markets can be effective under the right circumstances, and the best approach may involve a balance between the two.

The AFL finds itself in a unique position where its players can’t be poached from rival leagues and it does not have any real competition. This gives us the opportunity to structure a league with a salary cap in conjunction with a multi-division format and player transfer fees.

For example, If hypothetically Rupert Murdoch wants to establish an ultra-competitive London FC, he would be encouraged to use his unlimited funds to purchase players from rival clubs which would inject considerable money into the competition, however, those players would be restricted by a salary cap, thereby creating a mechanism to level the playing field, although giving him access to build an elite squad.

This structure could unite the entire Aussie Rules Football Community by allowing any clubs to field an entry into the league, while allowing player transfer fees to distributed funds across all sectors of the football community.

Imagine an AFL multi-division competition with the following salary cap allocations;
– $30M to Div1
– $25M to Div2
– $15M to Div3
with no restriction on the size of the playing list.

NB. The 2025-31 AFL broadcast rights deal is worth $643M per annum. If divided by 36 clubs, then that equates to $17.86M per club, per annum.

3 x 12 CLUB DIVISIONAL COMPETITION
If the AFL were to have 3 tiers of football comprised of 12 clubs per division playing 22 rounds each, with the top and bottom two clubs of Div2 getting promoted and relegated, then based on the 2022 AFL standings the following clubs could be playing Div2;

Hypothetical Div 2 teams
1. Hawthorn Hawks
2. Adelaide Crows
3. Essendon Bombers
4. GWS Giants
5. West Coast Eagle
6. North Melbourne Kangaroos
7. Canberra Federals
8. Hobart Pirates
9. Cairns Reefers
10. Darwin Crocs
11. North Tasmania Devils
12. London FC

Based on the Div2 teams listed above, you would assume the Crows and Eagles would not have a problem filling their stadiums based purely on their membership numbers. Also, during a period of rebuilding, would fans prefer watching their teams vie for a Div2 premiership rather than watching them struggle for relevancy in an 18 team competition full of dead rubbers?

How about a real world Tasmanian rivalry between Hobart and North Tasmania? And everyone would take an interest in Rupert Murdoch’s star studded London FC trying to launch into Div1 with one of the best playing lists in the comp.

Football enthusiasts would also tune in to watch the freakish indigenous skills of the Darwin Crocs against, say, Clive Palmers Cairns FC at the refurbished Cazaly Stadium, packed with beer guzzling locals and loud Victorian ex-pats.

Imagine the Bombers and Hawks both contending for promotion into Div1. They might not sell-out docklands, but you would expect to get 35k+ spectators to a home and away game and huge audiences for a finals match. The battle for promotion would be as fiercely contested as the battle to stave off relegation. Every game of the season would be critical and the stakes would be massive for all participants.

By using clever marketing and cross-promotion of the entire AFL competition, then one would assume that there would be enough interest for all divisional games to be aired live on TV, Radio, KAYO, FOX Sports and at the pubs, increasing broadcast, advertising and sponsorship revenues across the league.
And are there any takers for Div3 rivalries between Bendigo V Ballarat & Shepparton V Albury?

CONCLUSION
Australian Rules Football finds itself in a unique position to functionally integrate free trade agreements and a salary cap into a multi-division competition, without the need for AFL assistance packages and concessions.

The AFL should not shield itself, but rather embrace the real world economic, political and cultural dynamics that surround our sport, and the best way to do that is to just step back, let go of the strings and open up the game to the free market.

In my opinion, a multi-division free market model provides the most efficient and dynamic structure for the unrestrained growth of our game. It provides the ideal mechanism to connect the elite clubs with the grassroots leagues, while also providing smooth pathways for new Clubs to fund their own entry into the competition, while also allowing players to join their club of choice.

The introduction of a multi-division, salary cap system with free trade agreements, may just be the recipe to appeal to the egalitarian football community, who seek regional participation on a level playing field and also a formula which can put our game on the world stage.

After all, we do have the most spectacular game on the planet.

Viva Aussie Rules
NB. I want a job with the AFL.