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Opinion
Just five rounds remain in the 2022-23 A-League Men season, some believe all 12 clubs could still appear in the finals, and the run home will be crucial in deciding who qualifies for a crack at the championship trophy.
Like many other Australian sporting codes, a compromised draw where teams do not face their opponents the same number of times during the season provides a constant source of discussion and debate.
The ramifications of such inequity will be highlighted over the next five weeks, with favourable or horrible draws potentially determining the all-important make-up of the top six.
Subsequently, in a league where there is little more than a struck match between teams across the majority of home and away rounds, it is almost certain that a team will miss out based upon the unfairness of the draw and another potentially qualify thanks to their lucky lot.
For the A-League uninitiated, all teams play each other twice during the regular season and then participate in four other matches that are chosen by the APL to maximise interest, viewership and attendances.
Anyone who thinks that is fair traverses a different planet to the one I roam and the dynamic is magnified in a salary-capped league that has the desired impact of keeping the competition close and unpredictable.
They engineer parity and then skew it by tacking on four matches at the discretion of organisers, out to simply achieve metrics.
Every team has a story of fortune or lack of it. In 2022-23, Melbourne Victory has felt the full whack of the compromised draw stick. The floundering Victory has expectedly been asked to take on the powerhouse that is Melbourne City on three occasions.
Some derbies are more eventful than others. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
No real sympathy from me, they have been ordinary this season and did win unexpectedly on Feb 18, yet considering that Victory have also faced second on the ladder Adelaide three times, when most have not, the tough draw might go some way to explaining why Tony Popovic’s side has seemed so far off the pace.
Mathematically, six of Victory’s 21 matches to this point have been played against the top-two sides. In fact, of those 21 matches, 13 have been played against the current top six, with two more top-six sides to come in the form of the Phoenix and Wanderers.
The run home actually looks decent for Popovic’s men, although they would need to be almost perfect to somehow scrape into the finals come May.
Elsewhere, things look frightful for ladder-leader Melbourne City across the same period. A charging Jets, Wellington, Central Coast and the Wanderers all await Rado Vidosic’s team, one already looking a little wobbly over the last six weeks.
The Wanderers will face Adelaide, Melbourne City, Victory and Wellington during the run home, another tough draw and the Reds have what looks to be a kind last five rounds, with Western Sydney and Central Coast the sternest match-ups ahead.
Central Coast have just two top-six opponents, Adelaide and Melbourne City, to face through April and the Phoenix will have their eyes on the top four considering Victory, Brisbane and Macarthur all look like winnable games.
Sydney FC could well hang on to a place in the top six, despite the disastrous Derby performance that saw the Wanderers pull down their pants and spank their backsides in an emphatic fashion. The Sky Blues have Western United, Perth, Brisbane and Newcastle in the cross-hairs and the points required to play finals are there for the taking.
Of those outside looking in, the Jets face top-six opposition in three of their five remaining games, making the task considerable, whilst Western United have a horror run, up against Sydney FC, Central Coast, Adelaide and City over the next four weeks.
Macarthur are so inconsistent they hardly deserve a spot in the finals. However, their run home is reasonable, with Wellington and Western Sydney the biggest hurdles. Perth may be outsiders, yet only Adelaide loom as a daunting opponent and three of their last five will be at home.
There is scope for a late charge from a team building momentum and a full analysis of the compromised draw come seasons’ end will be well worth the investigation. Sadly for Victory, not only have they played poorly this season, they also appear to have copped the rough end of the stick in terms of the draw.