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ANALYSIS: The two biggest issues killing the Reds are linked - can Thorn fix them before he packs up his desk?

18th April, 2023
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18th April, 2023
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There were rumours that Brad Thorn wouldn’t make it past the bye week if the Reds lost in Samoa.

The victory, their third of the season, bought Thorn some more time – but only until the end of what has so far been a disappointing season. Although they currently sit in the play-off places, they are helped by having played eight matches. The Reds might come back and find themselves in 9th spot if results go against them. Does the victory against Moana Pasifika offer hope that Thorn can leave on something of a high, or did it just paper over the cracks?

In rugby, the result is king. Teams talk about process, but us fans, unaware of the specifics of what the process actually is, judge purely on wins and losses. The problem is that rugby is hugely influenced by luck. After just eight games, a team’s league position will be massively helped, or hindered, by lady luck. 

A good way to look for luck is in close games. Games decided by three points or less are typically about a quarter of all matches in the league. However, there is no evidence that teams can continually excel in close games. Winning them is down to chance not skill.

It’s easy to write off teams early in a season for poor results, only to find that they were just on a rotten run of form. That’s not the case with the Reds though. They’ve only taken part in one close game, against Fijian Drua, and they won it. It looks like the Reds really are in a difficult spot, not just an unlucky one. What is causing it? I think the answer comes down to two things; the last 20 minutes and the scrum.

In Super Rugby this year, just over 25% of points are scored in the final quarter. The second quarter is marginally more productive with the first and third quarter lagging behind. That is consistent across leagues and cups the world over. Teams are fresher in the first and third quarter and tire at the end of each half. We wouldn’t be shocked to see a team concede more points in that fourth quarter, but we would be concerned if they didn’t also score more points in that period. If you’re a Reds fan, be concerned.

The Reds concede 78 points in the fourth quarter. That is the second highest total after Moana Pasifika. But they score just 39 points. That is third lowest total after Pasifika and Fijian Drua. They score just 16.4% of their points in the fourth quarter, the lowest percentage of any team in the league. 

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It is tempting to say that the Reds have a poor last 20 minutes because of their conditioning and just be done with it. But that’s too simplistic. Conditioning is the over-arching problem, but it must appear somewhere in the stats. You don’t lose just because your conditioning is poor. You lose because your conditioning is poor and that means you miss more tackles towards the end of the match, for example.

That’s not the case with the Reds though. They don’t suddenly start missing tackles as the clock ticks on. Instead, they concede turnovers. Against the Crusaders, nine of their 19 turnovers happened in the final quarter. It was four of ten against the Rebels. Seven of 19 against Moana Pasifika. The Reds just can’t keep hold of the ball in the final quarter. 

That gives their opponents perfect attacking platforms to hurt them, but it also forces them to defend for longer, further putting pressure on their conditioning. Some of those turnovers come from tired play. 

Notice how the Reds just can’t get to the back gate and in the right body positioning to hold onto possession here. At this stage of the game, this looks like a conditioning issue where the legs have gone and a ruck which might have resulted in slower possession earlier in the game, now leads to a turnover.

But there are plenty of examples where the error is mental. Missed kicks to touch or poor offload decision making. Those might be linked back to conditioning as well, but more typically they come when a team loses focus throughout the match.

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I spoke with a member of the Namibia analysis staff during the 2019 World Cup, and they mentioned that getting the players to maintain focus for the entire match was the most challenging task. Against all that pressure and with all those decisions to make, players begin to switch off at the end. That is killing the Reds as they ship twice the number of points that they score in the final quarter.

The other factor is more basic. The Reds win just 69% of their scrums, they and Moana Pasifika are the two teams with a scrum success rate less than 80%. They have lost ten scrums, the joint highest total. They are also one of five teams to not win more than ten penalties on their own scrums, despite having the second highest total of their own scrums. The issue is clear, the Reds get milked for penalties on their opponent’s scrums and can’t use their own scrum to get the penalty. Whether we like it or not, a fundamental purpose of the modern scrum is to win a penalty. If you can’t do that, your ability to advance up the pitch is limited.

Brad Thorn is set to stand down as Queensland Reds coach following the 2023 season. Photo: Getty Images

A lot of rugby can be simplified down to a basic equation: you win if you have more 22 entries than your opponents. Penalties from scrums are a perfect way to take chunks of yardage and make it more likely to get into the opposition 22. If you can’t do that, and even worse, if you’re letting your opponent’s do that to you, then you are gifting them free opportunities. That’s a bit like a soccer team gifting their opponent’s free shots at goal.

Over the course of the game, that adds up. It’s more defending close to your line, it’s more effort to attack and cover the ground. It’s more energy that all adds up when it gets into the last 20 minutes. In many ways, the two biggest issues the Reds face are linked. If they can’t fix them their talented team might find ways to win matches, but they won’t go much further than that. That’s the job Brad Thorn has now before he packs up his desk. 

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