With nine rounds played, all byes done, and nine weeks of the season remaining once we account for the finals series, this weekend’s Round 10 officially marks the start of the run home for Super Rugby Pacific.

And oh my God, it’s going to be a tough round.

There’s been demarcation between the top sides and the rest of the mid-table sides for several weeks now, but the current 11-point game between the Blues in fifth and the Reds in sixth is significant.

Anyone below that mark still clinging to top four ambitions is borrowing from the fiction section; forget mathematic possibilities, there is just no way anyone is making up a three-game gap in six rounds.

But the run home is still going to see plenty of table movement. The Chiefs are a bonus point win clear on top of the table, but one more bonus point win covers second to fifth. One more bonus point win covers sixth to 11th. There is still plenty to play for, and all top eight positions remain in some degree of dispute.

But similarly, there’s not much separating the tipping panel; just two games – now a third of a round again – covers four of the top five, with The Crowd in that group too. With lots of top five teams playing each other, and lots of mid-table teams doing the same thing, it doesn’t take much imagination to see plenty of movement on the panel as well.

This week? Anyone’s guess. As I said in this week’s pod – a great chat with legendary Springbok flanker Rob Louw – I can make a solid argument for both sides of the contest in all six games in Round 10. So good luck, team.

LAST WEEK: Brett 4, Christy 4, Geoff 3, Digger 3, Harry 3; The Crowd 4.

OVERALL: Brett 41, Christy 41, Digger 40, Geoff 39, Harry 34; The Crowd 40.

BRETT WATCH: A new record of 27 straight correct tips, and with the sweetest irony of the Blues being the team to push me past Digger’s previous mark of 25…

Brett

TIPS: BRUMBIES, WARATAHS, DRUA, REBELS, CHIEFS, REDS.

Well, I got there. As Digger sailed past the 20-mark a few weeks ago, my initial thought was simply that wherever he finished would take some topping. I certainly wasn’t thinking doing the topping myself only a week later.

But as we know about sport, good luck and good timing has a big role in success. In tipping, it’s all good luck and good timing. With that all said however, I’m not confident of getting to 28. And if I do, the chances of getting to 29 are reduced. 30 is going to be near impossible.

Force fans, if I’ve got five from five by Saturday evening, then put the house on your team and you’ll be debt free by breakfast Sunday morning. Anyone who picks the card in Round 10 has my full admiration in advance.

So on Friday, the Brumbies are certainly good enough to win in Wellington, and likewise, the Waratahs need to be putting the Highlanders away. I hope they both can, but I offer no further confidence than ‘hope’.

How good are the Waratahs really? (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

On Super Saturday – how good is four games back to back?! – we start with the Drua at home again, and I don’t know who beats them on Fijian soil now.

When they start playing just as well in Australia and New Zealand, they’re going to be a very dangerous side. The Rebels only need to repeat their first hour against the Crusaders, and they’ll be too good for Moana Pasifika. The new boys still cannot score in the final quarter of games.

The Crusaders will take a lot out of the Melbourne win, but they’ll need a lot more than that to bring the Chiefs down in the ‘Tron, the City of the Future. And Queensland desperation needs to get them home on Saturday night. But I’m not sure if ‘sacked coach theory’ works quite as well when a coach departs voluntarily.

SURE THING: Penthouse to outhouse this week. Could be third or fourth (but not fifth) this time next week.

Christy

TIPS: BRUMBIES, WARATAHS, BLUES, REBELS, CRUSADERS, FORCE

After weeks of predictability, the tables have turned. The all-important unpredictability is back in Super Rugby. A competition can only be successful if unpredictability exists. It’s why the Waratahs’ decision to rest key players shone an ugly spotlight on the competition.

In all six matches this weekend is no foregone conclusion. Even Mick Byrne’s Fiji Drua will believe they can repeat the result against the Crusaders and Rebels by defeating the Blues at home.

In recent years, the Brumbies have measured up well against the Hurricanes. Even though they’re playing at home, the Brumbies have the forward pack and halves combination to take the Hurricanes down despite missing Pete Samu and Len Ikitau. The bench could be pivotal.

The Highlanders’ key men have returned but the Waratahs, too, have measured up well in recent years against the men from Dunedin.

Saturday promises to be just as compelling. The Blues will know it’s essential to come away with points from their trip, while the Crusaders and Chiefs shapes as one of the games of the season. The Crusaders were well-beaten by them in Round 1 at home. They’ll be out to turn the tables on their north island opponent.

The Rebels are playing better footy than what the standings suggest. But then again, the scoreboard never lies. It’s a must-win game.

Ioane Moananu of the Crusaders celebrates scoring against the Rebels. (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

Can the Force do a number on the Reds? I think so. The Force were horrendous earlier in the year. If the Force can beat the Reds up front in the tight-five, they’ll win.

SURE THING: Tipping this week is a toss of the coin. It’ll separate the herd. But it’s a huge week for Australian Super sides. Three wins is essential. Anything else is a failure.

Geoff

TIPS: BRUMBIES, WARATAHS, BLUES, REBELS, CRUSADERS, REDS

Back into the real thing this week, with a full round of six matches; some of them genuine 50/50 contests. I’ve been impressed by the Hurricanes this year but equally so by the Brumbies. Not easy, but this feels like an opportunity for another Australian win.

As does the late match in Sydney, despite the Waratahs’ recent failings. The Highlanders were so poor last week it’s impossible to tip them with any confidence.

Despite making a mental note not to tip against the Drua at home, I’m going to bypass that and run with the Blues. And while Moana Pasifika are not far from a win, it really is time for the Rebels to step up and get a result to match all of the promise shown.

Match of the round comes from Hamilton and it should be an absolute ripper. It’s very difficult to find convincing reasons to tip against the Chiefs, but I’m going to have a crack anyway, figuring that the Crusaders had a nice tune-up last week in Melbourne.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

And while the Reds v Force scoreline won’t be anything like the Super Round hiding, this feels like a Reds home win.

SURE THING: With an $8m surplus banked for the last financial year, Rugby Australia has fired off an offer into the rugby league player manager world; Wallabies spots available, $1m each, for the first 8 NRL players to cross over (Wests Tigers players excluded)

Harry

TIPS: HURRICANES, HIGHLANDERS, BLUES, REBELS, CRUSADERS, REDS.

We have the most interesting round of the year. The Hurricanes and Brumbies play a distinctly different style of rugby. Just as in boxing or MMA, this clash will be more compelling for the diversity of approach to having ball in hand.

The Canes can get themselves out of trouble, but the Brumbies are very good at keeping teams in trouble. If this were in Canberra, I would be like Brett ‘Laidlaw’ McKay and go with the Lord (Fisher). But the home team is forty points better than the visitors on differential. Canes by plinty.

The happy Waratahs welcome the sad Highlanders to the fanciest rugby stadium in the Southern Hemisphere. Neither team has been playing fancy rugby. Both are underwater (Tahs are minus-29 and the Landers are minus-57).

The visitors will bring their two best halfbacks into the side (Aaron Smith was on bereavement leave and Folau Fakatava was ill, missing the woeful card carnival in Perth) and they will try to find Jona Nareki on the wing. I do not see the South Island team repeating the misfire; nor are we likely to see as strange a match as last week. There is something wrong at Allianz. Highlanders by 8.

The Blues go to Fiji. They will sweat, swear, and suffer (like I am, this season of tipping) but will win in the end (prophetic?)

Moana Pasifika has begun almost every match on fire, is breaking the most tackles in the competition, but cannot finish games.

This would be the one, but I will stick with the Melbourne Rebels because they are a better team than the struggling Mount Smart side (as their domination of the bloody Crusaders for sixty minutes) and at this stage, that is difficult to undo.

The Chiefs scrum and tackle best. The Crusaders ruck best. Both seem to be able to play phase rugby in any weather. The Waikato Whammo awaits. The ‘Saders appear to be coming right, at the right time. Also, I think Brett has tipped the Chiefs.

The Reds will put fifty points on the Force, inspired by their coach’s tearful farewell, about twenty less than in Super Round. The Force will notch ten or so.

SURE THING: The RFU Disciplinary Panel took a look at a Tweet by inactive Exeter wing Jack Nowell about a penalty try awarded to the Leicester Tigers in which he told his 61,000 followers the decision was “one of the worst decisions I’ve ever seen.” Joe Marler used the same social media platform to call the decision “Bonkers. Ridiculous. Laughable. Shambolic.”

Marler was not disciplined. Nowell was found to have disrespected the referee (not attacking his honesty or integrity, “but the inevitable inference was that it seriously called into question the Referee’s competence,” fined ten thousand pounds and ordered to “undertake a referee course and complete a qualification in refereeing as a piece of restorative work.”

Thus, what we have is the RFU making a rather boring Tweet far more famous, a more colourful Tweet ignored, and then, imposing or sentencing referee training itself a form of punishment. And they wonder why our lovely old game is seen as idiosyncratic.

Digger

TIPS: HURRICANES, WARATAHS, BLUES, REBELS, CHIEFS, REDS

One week you are leading and then suddenly you are overtaken by Brett. Seems rude, but at least we get six games again this weekend!

Anyway, a few cracking games to get excited about starting on Friday with the Brumbies riding on into town, a team who the Hurricanes traditionally struggle with.

The Brumbies structured style is the Hurricanes’ kryptonite but at home and with a much improved set piece and defensive pattern I think my lot can tip them over; ‘Canes by enough. I do want to tip the Highlanders but that would be based on more emotion than anything, Waratahs at home should be good enough.

Ben O’Donnell of the Brumbies celebrates with team mates after scoring during the round eight Super Rugby Pacific match between ACT Brumbies and Fijian Drua at GIO Stadium, on April 14, 2023, in Canberra, Australia. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)

Really looking forward to the Drua hosting the Blues, this promises to be a great spectacle, a Drua tip is tempting but the Blues should have enough to get it done and same with the Rebels, they are playing solid enough code to get over MP away.

Hamilton will probably provide the match of the round and it is not very often the Crusaders lose to the same side twice in a season, but I simply cannot ignore the Chiefs’ sterling form along with playing at home.

Chiefs to squeak this one while the Reds should beat the Force in Brisbane.

SURE THING: Julian Savea will edge a little closer to that try scoring record on Friday night.

Get your tips in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.