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With just one round left before the first State of Origin squads are announced, both coaches have all but inked in their teams and are now just hoping injuries and suspensions don’t get in the way.
Players have one last chance to impress the selectors in Round 12 before the Blues announce their team on Sunday night and the Maroons do likewise on Monday morning.
However, in reality, both sides will have their squads all but locked in as the weekend progresses, giving players the early heads-up that they’ll be heading into camp as soon as their matches are over.
The draw has not been kind to the likes of Bulldogs winger Josh Addo-Carr and Manly’s struggling superstar Tom Trbojevic.
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Addo-Carr was controversially omitted from the NSW squad for game one last year before he had taken the field for Canterbury in the NRL on a Sunday afternoon and this time around, he is making a last-ditch bid for a recall against the Titans in the opening match this Sunday.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Unthinkable just a few weeks ago, Trbojevic is under pressure to retain his spot in the NSW backline after being well below his best over the past fortnight in his return from a groin injury. He will take the field in the final match of the round in Canberra looking to recapture peak form to shore up his spot in the centres ahead of in-form Rabbitohs international Campbell Graham.
Maroons stalwart Josh Papalii announced on Thursday he was following the lead of Raiders teammate Jack Wighton and retiring from representative footy.
A mainstay of the Queensland pack over the past decade, making 23 appearances, he was a borderline selection this series due to the rise of several young forwards and he has stepped aside to allow the next generation through.
“I’ve loved every minute of my time playing for Queensland and representing the state and I have memories from my time in maroon I will never forget,” Papalii said.
“For me, it’s about giving the next generation of Queensland players the chance to represent and it also allows me to concentrate on my football for the Raiders during the middle part of the season.”
Both coaches – Brad Fittler and Billy Slater – are giving little away in regards to contentious selection decisions in the lead-up to the series opener on May 31 at Adelaide Oval.
Slater said Papalii informed him of his decision earlier this week.
“I was fortunate to feel both the presence Papa gave as a teammate and the confidence he gave me as a coach,” Slater said. “Josh’s commitment and performance in his last Origin game typified his career in Maroon – heart, selfless and committed to his team… a warrior of the Origin arena.”
Fittler looks certain to include Jarome Luai at five-eighth alongside Nathan Cleary and he said on the Freddy & The Eighth podcast on Nine that he didn’t want to throw away the combinations that had been building up over the past five years since he’s been in charge.
“Our side’s been inexperienced every game, they’ve been more inexperienced every game for the last five years since I’ve been there,” he said. “Games together is important.”
Here’s how the two states are shaping up.
1 James Tedesco
2 Brian To’o
3 Matt Burton
4 Stephen Crichton
5 Daniel Tupou
6 Jarome Luai
7 Nathan Cleary
8 Junior Paulo
9 Api Koroisau
10 Jake Trbojevic
11 Cameron Murray
12 Liam Martin
13 Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14 Damien Cook
15 Jacob Saifiti
16 Angus Crichton
17 Siosifa Talakai
Blues spine: Luai was under immense pressure to retain the No.6 jersey ahead of South Sydney’s Cody Walker and Sharks playmaker Nicho Hynes in the race to partner Cleary in the halves.
But after a starring role in Penrith’s annihilation of the Roosters last Friday night, he is all but assured of his third straight Origin campaign.
(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Fittler appears set to roll with just one hooker instead of using Koroisau and Cook in a rotation with Hynes likely to be the designated utility on the bench as he can cover dummy-half if needed as well as several spots in the backline.
Koroisau’s relationship with Cleary, Luai and Yeo in particular from their time together at Penrith will probably get him the nod ahead of Cook.
Outside backs: Trbojevic has been a shadow of himself and has been burnt for pace by Brisbane winger Selwyn Cobbo and Sharks forward Briton Nikora in an extremely worrying sign over the past two Sea Eagles defeats.
He’s a noted big-game performer and when fully fit, one of the most potent attacking forces in the NRL. But he is clearly well short of his physical peak and unless he snaps back into gear this weekend, his lack of form will be a major concern for the Blues.
If Nikora, who is quick for a forward but not lightning fast, can run around Trbojevic then how is he going to handle the pace of Queensland’s outside backs?
Graham has mounted an irrepressible case for his first Origin jersey with 11 tries in as many appearances for Souths after breaking into the representative ranks with the Kangaroos at last year’s World Cup.
Brian To’o is a lock for one wing spot while Graham should be the other winger ahead of Stephen Crichton, Joseph Suaalii and Addo-Carr if Trbojevic is retained at centre.
Forward pack: Eels prop Junior Paulo has avoided a suspension after his charge for a cannonball tackle on Raiders forward Joseph Tapine was rated grade one so his only sanction will be an $1800 fine.
Apart from his starting partner Payne Haas, the Blues are stretched for middle-forward options on the interchange.
Manly’s Jake Trbojevic has been cleared to return to club duties ahead of schedule following a calf strain this Sunday.
Parramatta veteran Reagan Campbell-Gillard (groin injury) is out of contention, as is Panthers rising star Spencer Leniu after suffering a ruptured testicle in a training mishap last week which has required surgery.
Newcastle twins Daniel and Jacob Saifiti have Origin experience while teammate Tyson Frizell is a chance for his first NSW appearance since the most recent of his 14 appearances in 2020.
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Adam O’Brien was talking up the veteran’s chances after Frizell scored a crucial try in Sunday’s win over Gold Coast.
“I think this is the best Tyson’s played for our club. He’s healthy, he’s playing that way. He’d be in my [Origin] team,” he said. “Both the Saifiti boys have played well in that [NSW] jersey. They’ve had mixed seasons but both of those guys were great [against the Titans].”
Martin made a strong comeback from his hamstring injury last Friday for Penrith against the Roosters to give Fittler one less selection headache.
Apart from Martin, the other second-row options are Roosters star Angus Crichton, who has been steady after a late start to the season, Manly’s Haumole Olakau’atu and Canberra’s Hudson Young. South Sydney’s Keaon Koloamatangi could have been a debutant option but he is out until next month with ankle damage.
Crichton and Frizell have been used in the middle-forward rotation at Origin level so that adds strength to their chances of an interchange berth.
1 James Tedesco
2 Brian To’o
3 Tom Trbojevic
4 Latrell Mitchell
5 Campbell Graham
6 Jarome Luai
7 Nathan Cleary
8 Payne Haas
9 Api Koroisau
10 Junior Paulo
11 Cameron Murray
12 Liam Martin
13 Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14 Nicho Hynes
15 Daniel Saifiti
16 Angus Crichton
17 Tyson Frizell
18 Hudson Young
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
1 Kalyn Ponga
2 Selwyn Cobbo
3 Valentine Holmes
4 Dane Gagai
5 Corey Oates
6 Tom Dearden
7 Daly Cherry-Evans
8 Lindsay Collins
9 Ben Hunt
10 Josh Papalii
11 Kurt Capewell
12 Jeremiah Nanai
13 Patrick Carrigan
Interchange
14 Harry Grant
15 Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
16 Jai Arrow
17 Tom Gilbert
Maroons spine: Ponga carved up the Titans on the weekend in easily his best performance of the year and appears likely to retain the No.1 jersey.
He was diplomatic after his superb effort to score a try and set up a couple of others when asked about his Queensland chances – “I can’t worry about Queensland selections or anything like that. For me, the focus is on recovery and training well for next week. Obviously it’s a prestigious honour to represent Queensland, and if I get to do it again, I’ll be privileged and honoured and humbled, but I can’t worry about selection – I’ve got to worry about my performances.”
Brisbane’s Reece Walsh and Dolphins speedster Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow look like they will have to bide their time waiting for a chance despite both performing extraordinarily well at club level.
Broncos coach Kevin Walters on Wednesday said Walsh needed to step up on Thursday night against the Panthers, not to push his Origin cause but to help young playmakers Ezra Mam and Jock Madden with Adam Reynolds out with concussion.
Outside backs: Tabuai-Fidow could partner Holmes in the centres if the Maroons move on from Gagai, who has given them great service in 22 Origins, but he is likely to get the first crack this year even though he has not been in the best of touch with Newcastle.
Having middling club form leading into Origin has never been a problem for Gagai in the past.
The Hammer could also find a home on the wing although Cobbo and Melbourne’s Xavier Coates are both specialist wingers who are in good form at NRL level and have impressed in their brief Origin careers thus far.
Forward pack: Titans marquee David Fifita is firming for a recall after he was snubbed by Slater last year.
His club captain, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, believes Fifita should be packing down alongside him for the Maroons.
“I definitely think so. He’s been playing very good and I guess it’s up to the selectors but I’m proud of the way David’s come on,” Fa’asuamaleaui said on Sunday after Fifita scored two tries in the loss to the Knights. “He’s the one that’s been standing up each week. He’s taking up tough carries, he’s working hard on his defence, and as a player next to him, he’s someone that you want to play with.”
With Nanai out of the running due to his hip-drop ban, Slater could bring Fifita straight back into the starting side or use him as an impact option off the bench, casting doubt on whether the veteran duo of Capewell and Kaufusi will remain in the 17.
Canberra’s Corey Horsburgh is rapidly rising up the pecking order with his strong recent form while Papalii, his Raiders teammate, has opted to no longer make himself available for Origin footy.
Papalii told reporters after their win over Parramatta on Saturday night that Horsburgh was “made for Origin” because “he loves that physical side of things, he’s got a bit of lip as well and he can play footy – that’s what Origin is all about”.
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Storm prop Christian Welch, Brisbane’s Tom Flegler, North Queensland’s Reuben Cotter and Dolphins lock Tom Gilbert are also laying strong selection claims, along with Rabbitohs veteran Jai Arrow and Eels recruit J’maine Hopgood, who will probably be given his first taste of Origin in the extended squad.
1 Reece Walsh
2 Xavier Coates
3 Valentine Holmes
4 Dane Gagai
5 Selwyn Cobbo
6 Cameron Munster
7 Daly Cherry-Evans
8 Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
9 Ben Hunt
10 Lindsay Collins
11 Kurt Capewell
12 David Fifita
13 Patrick Carrigan
Interchange
14 Harry Grant
15 Tom Gilbert
16 Felise Kaufusi
17 Christian Welch
18 Reuben Cotter