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“Harley Reid is the most obvious number one pick we’ve seen probably since Nick Riewoldt.”
This is what a long-time AFL recruiter said last week. The sentiment has been echoing around the league for some time.
I, like many of you, have never seen Reid play live. But everyone raves about him beyond the normal levels. His movement, his skills, his tenacity, his clean hands in the air and at ground level are all elite.
I also know that he’s already somewhat of a social media sensation, immediately identifiable to TikTok-happy teenagers.
Having watched his interview on AFL.com.au recently, I sense his preference would be to not go to West Coast. Who can blame him? The Eagles are one of those rare beasts: Organised and stable off the field but a rabble on it.
If Reid continues to strengthen his case to be Pick 1 in the National Draft, there will be 17 list management teams in the country figuring out how to get him.
Not only will Pick 1 deliver whichever team finishes 18th a great player, it also presents them with a rolled gold bargaining chip in the trade period.
Harley Reid in action for the AFL Academy. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
In short, Pick 1 has never been this valuable. Or at least not since Riewoldt in 2000.
For a club like West Coast, the prospect of receiving three (or more) selections in the top 20 could set them up for a generation. The same applies to North Melbourne, which already boasts a sprinkling of top young players from recent drafts.
So, while the Eagles or Roos may give up a potential A+ AFL player, they should be attracted to the possibility they can bring three A-grade players in.
Which brings us to GWS, the AFL’s newest club but no longer blessed with the deep layer of talent they boasted in Leon Cameron’s era.
Ever since the Giants entered the competition in 2012, they’ve struggled to stem the flow of highly talented teenagers coming in, playing well, and leaving.
And every time it happens, GWS asks for – and receives – a high draft pick. They use that high draft pick appropriately and the cycle continues.
Last year it was Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto, in 2020 it was Jye Caldwell and Jeremy Cameron and so on.
The best example is Caldwell, who was taken with Pick 11 in the 2018 National Draft and 24 months later, asked for a trade.
That Pick 11 came to GWS because Dylan Shiel left for the Bombers. Ironically, Essendon is also where Caldwell ended up.
To buck this trend, the Giants must avoid selecting multiple first round selections in the same draft. They are aware of the predicament, but it’s not an easy pattern to counter, as it forces them to say no to ample talent in the hope of one player becoming a star.
In essence, what they need to do is bundle up several selections to move up the draft order as high as possible for one pick.
This is where Reid comes in.
In 2023, GWS is as well placed as any club to execute a trade which would see them land Pick 1.
How?
The first step is to let Harry Himmelberg walk as a free agent. Yes, he’s a talented player who is versatile, but to get something you must give something. Besides, he hasn’t re-signed yet so may want to go elsewhere anyway. That would be a win-win.
In return for Himmelberg, the Giants would likely get end of first round compensation, depending on his salary. That would give them three first round selections for the 2023 Draft, the third one courtesy of Richmond for last year’s trade action.
As we’ve just learned, three first rounders are a waste of time for GWS, unless they want to continue their doom spiral.
If the ladder remains as it is, GWS would go to the draft with Picks 4, 5 and one in the late teens (at least) for Himmelberg.
Packaging selections 4,5 and let’s say 19 is worth 4,860 draft points. Pick 1 is valued at 3,000 points. On pure metrics GWS would be giving up too much, but prying Reid away from West Coast or North means they will need to pay more than the draft calculator determines.
If the Giants can pull this off, the next challenge would be re-signing Reid in the same way they were unable to do with Caldwell.
Reid is close with 2022 Pick 1 Aaron Cadman, Category B rookie Jason Gilbee, and 19-year-old Cooper Hamilton.
Grouping friends together is hardly new – it was a key plank of Brisbane’s pitch to Lachie Neale and close friend Lincoln McCarthy – and in this instance it would benefit GWS hugely.
Adam Kingsley is 11 games into a three-year deal. He has Toby Greene, Lachie Whitfield, Tom Green and Stephen Coniglio locked in long term.
Drafting Reid in addition to Cadman in 2022 gives late-20-somethings another look at a premiership without the collateral damage of a full scale rebuild.
Ultimately this will all come down to one thing: How ambitious does GWS want to be to get a generational player in and deliver the club its first flag?
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