The Wallabies’ World Cup campaign is not over yet. There is a glimmer of hope and many lessons to be learned from how Australia and Wales each approached the flying Fijians.
Australia vs Fiji was defined by the Wallabies’ poor decision making – not just on the field, but in selection and game planning too.
Two weeks ago, Eddie Jones said the Australian pack “could dominate the World Cup”. In their first game, they not only pushed around the physically renowned Georgians, but also showed great pack balance.
Taniela Tupou’s and Will Skelton’s size freed up Fraser McReight, the only smaller body in the Wallabies’ pack, to get through and secure quick ruck ball. Against Georgia these three players hit 60 attacking rucks. Thirty-three belonged to McReight with a tremendous work-rate, while Tupou and Skelton’s massive frames allowed for single person clean-outs — the key to Australia’s quick ball.
Taniela Tupou rumbles downfield against Georgia. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Against Fiji, the absence of Tupou and Skelton — through the combination of unlucky injury timing and media deception — meant the Wallabies had to go into this heavyweight boxing match with a hand tied behind their back. McReight lost the cover of the Wallabies’ physical dominance.
He only hit 11 attacking rucks against Fiji and desperately needed additional grunt from an Australian forward pack that simply could not dominate the contact and breakdown. The balance of this forward pack was a disaster. James Slipper, Nick Frost and Richie Arnold are all good rugby players, but they are set-piece operators, not power forwards.
Australia had more ruck success late in the match when better players in contact such as Rob Leota, Matt Philip, and Zane Nonggorr took the field. If the Wallabies want any chance against Wales, more thought must be given to composition of the forward pack.
Another area where Fiji dominated the Wallabies was kicking. Despite having the example of Wales’ success against Fiji Australia took a vastly different kicking approach, and it did not work. Wales were defensive in their kicking, looking to slow the game down and build pressure three points at a time.
Contrastingly, Australia attempted attacking kicks throughout the match. Both tries were scored from kicks, with Nic White’s 50/22 in the first half and Lalakai Foketi’s turnover from a box kick creating the second. This tactic showed promise, but the overall execution was poor. Australia kicked the ball dead four times from attacking positions, stunting any opportunities the Wallabies had.
In a game with only five line breaks for the match (Australia had three), terrible kicking execution could only leave the Wallabies backline wondering what might have been.
Nick Frost against Fiji. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
More interesting was Australia’s approach to defending Fiji, particularly at the set-piece. Wales were cut to shreds by the try-scoring Fijian backline multiple times as defenders were beaten one-on-one. In response, Australia adopted a drift defence at set-piece, which often allowed a Fijian carrier to run an extra five or 10 metres but be contained to avoid a line break and isolated carriers. If not for the immense Fijian ruck work, this soak method may well have won the match.
However, player selection is integral to the game plan. Jordan Petaia, a decent but not outstanding defender, was frequently the decision maker in the Wallabies defensive line. In the 78th minute, Waisea Nayacalevu skirted his tackle to put the ball near Australia’s line, ending any chance of a late Australian try.
Len Ikitau, left out of the Wallabies World Cup squad, is arguably the best drift defender in the world and would have been perfect for this defensive approach. Ikitau’s omission should have been the most controversial of the World Cup.
Ikitau is 24 years old and one of the best 13s in World Rugby – he is not past his prime like some other omissions and the Wallabies seem intent on trying to run a defence built for him.
One final takeaway from the Australia-Fiji boilover was the 22m entries. 22m entries is arguably the best single indicator of success in international rugby. In 14 of the first 16 RWC matches, the team that had more 22m entries has won.
Len Ikitau wasn’t picked for the World Cup due to concerns for his injured shoulder. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
The first match that bucked this trend was Wales vs Fiji, where Fiji had 7 more entries but intelligent planning and execution in the 22m meant that Wales averaged 5.2 points per entry — the highest figure of this World Cup. On Monday, Fiji had three fewer 22m entries than Australia.
This was as much an indicator of Australia’s strong defence as their totally impotent attack. Wales’ 5.2 points per entry was based on well thought-out set-moves. Most notably, Wales uses the same attacking set-up as the Wallabies off set piece. Inside centre plays first receiver, with the option to carry or give a short pass to the 13 or ball behind to the flyhalf.
Wales scored two tries and made a third line break by executing the same short pass to the outside centre, something they had clearly seen was a Fijian weakness on tape.
As the Ian Fleming quote goes: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action”. And yet, Australia seemed to have nothing prepared exploit a clear weakness in Fiji’s defence.
Fiji was brilliant, and their success is exciting for rugby as a sport. But Eddie Jones’ Wallabies will be well aware that strategic blunders have led them to a Welsh knock-out game. The Wallabies had the ability to beat Fiji and should know they are still capable of making the quarterfinals.
If they are to win on Monday they need to improve selection, preparation and execution in the next five days. If they don’t, we can all enjoy watching the flying Fijians soar.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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